When I am teaching CSM and CSPO classes I frequently get questions from students who have trouble understanding how work flows from the release level down through product backlog items like User Stories on down to the task level. I do cover this in class but for some, it is not so easy to see.
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Trying to figure out when you will be ready to ship is incredibly challenging. Many Scrum teams track historic velocity, or story points completed in a Sprint, and then use the average number of points completed per Sprint as a way of making an educated guess as to when they could deliver when they’d expect to deliver a certain number of story points in the future. There are, however, many who feel that this approach is no better than just making a completely random guess, and there is evidence to support the value in taking a different approach.
In this episode of The Reluctant Agilist, Troy Lightfoot explains his approach to Probabilistic Forecasting, what it is, why it matters, and how it is a better way of planning than using a more traditional approach.
Books Recommended In the Podcast
Tools mentioned in the podcast