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2nd-ary Risk

Rice and Shine

The Millennium Project: A Model for the Future of Global Collaboration

Crazy Biology

Cherry Blossom Projects

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2nd-ary Risk

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One of the more difficult project management concepts to understand and to put into practice is secondary risk.  It’s often confused with residual risk.  In simple terms, secondary risk that is caused by a risk response.  Now, of course, risk can be positive (opportunity) or negative (threat).  Here we’ll go to the dark side and focus on threat – most people consider risk and threat to be the same.  You and I know that they are different, but to make the concept of residual risk clear, we’ll stay with threat.

So again, a secondary risk is a new threat that is caused by a response to the original threat. 

We can all think of examples:

  • An airbag (meant to prevent injuries) deployment causes injury to a driver or passengers.
  • A poorly-packed parachute causes a sprained shoulder by deploying too quickly.
  • A sprinkler system installed to prevent the threat of fire, causes damage to an expensive server farm on the floor below when the water leaks through the floor
  • A tent erected for a party to prevent mosquito bites collapses and injures 2 guests.  
  • Hiring a subject matter expert (SME) for your project to reduce the risk of making a mistake results in that SME transferring intellectual property to a competitor.
  • Here’s a timely one, based on the Colonial Gas pipeline hack: Stocking up on gas in plastic bags to mitigate the risk of a gas shortage results in (at a minimum) a smelly car when one of the bags leaks.  At the end of the post, I encourage you to watch the video from a very, very, very angry firefighter who is rather, shall we say, emphatic, in his warnings about this particular secondary risk!

All of these examples speak to the idea of risk versus reward, but with a twist – it is really risk response versus punishment.  This speaks to thinking carefully about the downsides of our risk treatments or responses.  Could the cure be worse than the disease?

A recent story by the BBC on tree planting – traceable to an article from the research journal Global Change Biology - found that in some cases, planned tree planting does not increase carbon capture and can have negative effects. caught my attention, considering this idea of secondary risk.  The BBC story starts with this bold statement:

Tree planting is a brilliant solution to tackle climate change and protect biodiversity, but the wrong tree in the wrong place can do more harm than good, say experts at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew.

From the abstract of the Global Change Biology Journal:

Urgent solutions to global climate change are needed. Ambitious tree‐planting initiatives, many already underway, aim to sequester enormous quantities of carbon to partly compensate for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, which are a major cause of rising global temperatures. However, tree planting that is poorly planned and executed could actually increase CO2 emissions and have long‐term, deleterious impacts on biodiversity, landscapes and livelihoods.

So the overall risk response (to climate change) is planting forests. It seems that there are indeed downsides to this – and are those downsides worth it?  Are there ways to avoid those downsides?  After all, our goal is have a net benefit when we put the risk response into place.  Sure, an airbag may – in rare instances – cause injury, but that does that mean we should throw them all away?  NO.  Airbags save many lives and prevent injuries.  We have to figure the downside of a failed airbag and do what we can to assure that they don’t introduce new risk, but we don’t just stop using them due to an instance of secondary risk.

Let’s start with the threat that’s causing us to plant forests.

Every year we lose one Denmark worth of tropical forest.  Is that bad?  Well, what do forests provide?

Well, they are home to three-quarters of the world's plants and animals.  They absorb CO2, and provide humans with food, fuels and medicines. So, yes, I think we’d all agree, losing a Denmark (or three Connecticuts) of forest each year is a threat we cannot tolerate.  And planting forests does work, if it’s done properly.  Here’s what NOT to do, according to the article: don’t replace natural forests teeming with plants, animals and fungi with commercial plantations with row upon row of timber trees, which will be harvested after a few decades.  That actually causes more damage than leaving the forests alone.

Turns out that there are 10 “golden rules” for reforestation that, if followed, can prevent those secondary risks:

10 Golden Rules for Restoring Forests (set out in detail below)

1. Protect existing forests first

2. Put local people at the heart of tree-planting projects

3. Maximize biodiversity recovery to meet multiple goals

4. Select the right area for reforestation

5. Use natural forest regrowth wherever possible

6. Select the right tree species that can maximize biodiversity

7. Make sure the trees are resilient to adapt to a changing climate

8. Plan ahead

9. Learn by doing

10. Make it pay

 

These are explained in detail in the Journal article, which has been made ‘open source’, so feel free to view it here.

So what is the takeaway for project managers?

First of all, in your Risk Registers, have a place to record Secondary Risks.  Think not just about the risk response you propose, but what new threats (or opportunity) that threat response may initiate.  Next, think of the ways in which you can respond to THOSE threats – those secondary threats, introduced by your risk response. 

Secondly, avoid ‘throwing the baby out with the bathwater’.  Instead, secure that baby and just throw out the bathwater.  In other words, look at the equivalent of the above 10 Golden Rules for your risk response.  It takes more work and more thinking through to what happens if your risk response does get activated.  But it’s worth it.  After all, you don’t want to be the one of the people this guy is talking about, do you?

Posted by Richard Maltzman on: May 15, 2021 07:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Rice and Shine

Who would ever think you’d be reading about a Spanish Michelin Star chef, hunter-gatherer Seri people from Mexico, and a possible defense against erosion and climate change, all related to a project to harvest something which we’ll call sea rice?

I’ll attempt to pull this together for you.  It’s quite fascinating, actually and worth it.  For me, this started with a recent article in The Guardian called “The rice of the sea: how a tiny grain could change the way humanity eats”. This article caught my attention when I read this description of a ‘new food’: gluten-free, high in omega-6 and -9 fatty acids, and contains 50% more protein than rice per grain, according to Aponiente’s research. And all of it growing without freshwater or fertiliser.  Wow.  Is this possible?  And is this really new?  Stay tuned.

I’ll start with the celebrity chef, named Ángel León.  León is profiled in a Time Magazine article:

In 2008, as a young, unknown chef, he took a loin from one fish and attached it to the loin of another, using collagen to bind the two proteins together. He called them hybrids and served them to unsuspecting diners at Aponiente, his restaurant in the southern Spanish port town of El Puerto de Santa María, just across the bay from Cádiz. He discovered that fish eyes, cooked at 55°C in a thermal circulator until the gelatin collapsed, made excellent thickening agents for umami-rich sauces. Next he found that micro-algae could sequester the impurities of cloudy kitchen stocks the same way an egg white does in classical French cooking. In the years since, León has used sea bass to make mortadella; mussels to make blood sausage; moray eel skin to mimic crispy pigskins; boiled hake to fashion fettuccine noodles; and various parts of a tuna’s head to create a towering, gelatinous, fall-apart osso buco.

Meet Leon  in a video profile here:

His restaurant, Michelin-starred Aponiente, is “set in an 18th-century tidal mill inhabited by myriad species in southwest Spain” it’s is a seafood lover’s paradise, serving the freshest, most sustainable ocean produce, including goose barnacle, fiddler crab and albacore, as well as plankton.  Read the Michelin review here: https://guide.michelin.com/en/andalucia/el-puerto-de-santa-maria/restaurant/aponiente

Aponiente has its own research lab, which recently has made progress with eelgrass seeds – the little grain that was featured in the Guardian article above.  The eelgrass is Zostera Marina.  From the lab’s research:

At Aponiente’s research lab, we have achieved the cultivation of Zostera marina and its seed – marine grain. For the first time ever, controlled crops have been successfully grown. Never before has this goal been reached.  The project was launched in 2017 – the first of its kind in all the world. The undertaking allowed for the recovery of the native species, Zostera marina, helping to generate greater marine biodiversity, thus enriching our ecosystem and strengthening the region in the struggle against climate change.

Currently, the experimental cultivation area measures some 3000 m2, and is located in Bahía de Cádiz Natural Park, near the municipality of Puerto Real. Along the northern coast of Spain, and throughout Europe, there are naturally occurring marine meadows teeming with Zostera marina. The wild species is now protected, given that it plays a crucial role in the ecosystem, but it is still dying at an alarming rate in areas where it once grew in abundance. Human marine activities have had an adverse effect on the plant.

Despite their importance it is extremely challenging to carry out reforestation projects of this kind. The problem is that there are no nurseries that are prepared to supply the appropriate plants and/or seeds. One aspect of the present project that makes it so notable is that, for the first time, a seed bank will be created that will serve to repopulate coastal wetlands, which can then be restored and managed.

A full PDF of this research is available here:  https://www.cerealmarino.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/APONIENTE_CEREAL-MARINO_DOSSIER-DE-PRENSA_ENG.pdf

The rice is nutritionally sound:

So what about the connection to the Seri hunter-gatherers that I promised you?

Back to the article from Time:

Juan Martín, Aponiente’s resident biologist who has worked with León for years, knew the plant well. “I had been studying seagrasses for 15 years—but always from the standpoint of the ecosystem. It never occurred to me or anyone else studying it that it was edible.” That is, until León showed up one day at Aponiente with a printout of a 1973 article in Science documenting the diet of the Seri, hunters and gatherers of Sonora, Mexico, who have eaten eelgrass for generations. Like many grains, it required an elaborate process of threshing, winnowing, toasting and pulverizing before being cooked into a slurry with water. The Seri ate the bland paste with condiments to punch up the flavor: honey or, preferably, sea-turtle oil.

Here's a snippet from that article (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/181/4097/355)

So what is the project theme here?  Well, aside from the research project, León and his restaurant’s research team is going to take the research to reality:

If all goes according to (project) plan, they will harvest 12 acres of eelgrass in the summer of 2021. León and team will use most of those seeds (about 22,000 kg) to expand the eelgrass significantly in 2022–2023, and he will keep about 3,000 kg to cook with at the restaurant and experiment with in the lab.

With more than 5,000 hectares of estuaries and abandoned salt beds strewn across the region, if León and team have their way, Cádiz could soon be home to one of the largest eelgrass meadows on the planet.

Could you be making and eating Zostera waffles soon?  Maybe! 

Posted by Richard Maltzman on: April 29, 2021 11:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Millennium Project: A Model for the Future of Global Collaboration

Today, I’m quite pleased and proud to feature a guest blog post by an MBA student at Bard College’s MBA in Sustainability.  I’m thankful to Kristina Kohl, PMP, author of Becoming a Sustainable Organization, who made the connection and introduced me to Kirstie Dabbs. 

Kirstie Dabbs, Bard MBA in Sustainability

 

Kirstie Dabbs is a student at Bard College's MBA in Sustainability. Her areas of expertise include corporate ESG disclosure and the application of strategic foresight to inform sustainable decision-making. She has enjoyed developing sustainability strategies for public, private, and nonprofit organizations.

Here is her post:


How might we harness the power of global participation to achieve a better future for all?

The answer may lie in transcending the labels that divide individuals and organizations.

Long before the establishment of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals in 2015, or even the Millennium Development Goals in 2000, a think tank called The Millennium Project methodically worked to compile a list of 15 global challenges looming beyond the year 2000. The next millennium was fast approaching, and co-founders Jerome Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon saw this milestone as a potential teaching moment for humanity.

Rather than merely creating a report about the state of the world, Glenn (then a futurist and consultant at United Nations University and its American Council) and Gordon (CEO of the Futures Group and formerly at the RAND Corporation) figured that society would benefit from something even more ambitious than a think tank’s report: the establishment of a global system to support ongoing research about the state of the world. As futurists, they hoped this system would gather useful information to inspire decision-making for a better future.

The Millennium Project launched in 1996, and to this day the organization remains the only one of its kind. After three years of feasibility studies conducted under the United Nations University, the Project became operational under the American Council for the UNU as a participatory global think tank connecting civilians, universities, private enterprise, governments, and policy makers. In 2009, The Millennium Project became an independent NGO. Now in its 25th year, the organization should be studied as a model of global collaboration for good that transcends place, institution, and ideology.

The non-hierarchical structure of research, combined with the online Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS, launched in 2014), enable The Millennium Project to collect, organize and synthesize information from around globe in near real-time. Much of the data gathered are organized into categories based on the 15 global challenges identified in the 1990s. The challenges remain relevant today, as evidenced by their overlap with many of the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Their continued significance is a testament to the successful foresight work performed by The Millennium Project in its early days.

The Millennium Project 15 Global Challenges

 

Image Courtesy of The Millennium Project

After 25 years of tracking these issues through global news feeds and participant inputs, the Project’s global collective intelligence system serves as a rich resource and it is available to scholars, NGOs, government agencies, and individuals who subscribe to its network. The Project’s data on environmental risk alone has informed numerous departments of defense around the globe.

The organization is also well-positioned to support collaborative efforts to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, offering a network for global partnership.

Image courtesy of The Millennium Project

Re-Imagining Organizational Structures

Another way that The Millennium Project is leading the way for global change is through its aspiration to evolve beyond the boundaries of a rigid organizational structure, becoming the world’s first transinstitution.

The legal status or “legal personhood” of a transinstitution does not yet exist. This, according to Glenn, is unfortunate. “Our society has accelerating technological change, but institutional change is lagging.” He believes that just as all countries have for-profit law and non-profit law, there should be a third category: transinstitutional law. While The Millennium Project is currently a nonprofit 501(c)(3) public charity, it has embodied different structures through its existence and Glenn as CEO would promptly register it as a transinstitution if a country were to take the step to create this new category.

In contrast to the way the term public-private partnerships is used today, which simply refers to collaboration between institutions, Glenn’s use of the term transinstitution describes an organization that is able to span different boundaries, as needed. As Glenn explains, “The advantage of being a transinstitution is that when you have to be in the United Nations, you’d be in the United Nations. When you have to be based in a country, you’d be in a country. When you have to focus on an issue, you could act like an NGO. When you want to be in education, you could act like a university –  you can act through all of these categories while also being acted upon by all of these categories.”

Glenn believes a transinstitution structure would enable more action because it would allow for adaptation. “Some things are harder for a business to do, and others are harder for universities to do,” he explains. If an organization were able to exercise different capacities simultaneously for different purposes, barriers that inhibit collaboration and action would be reduced.

“We are already adaptive – we are politically sensitive because we engage with government and policy makers regularly. We are internationally and culturally sensitive because we have Nodes around the world,” including, as Glenn points out, nodes in both Tel Aviv and Tehran. “That’s a little unusual for an organization.”

As for the possibility of other organizations registering as this designation, Glenn sees a transinstitution being useful to support any cause. “The main idea is to attract people who are interested in what you are doing and then put them together in a healthy environment, even if they are different – just like an opera,” he says. “A trumpet should not be a violin. But when you put them together it makes beautiful music. It’s the same with a transinstitution: you can have left-wing, right-wing, and more, but the relationship of how you put them together can allow for  a successful output.”

Looking Forward

When The Millennium Project was first envisioned, its founders wondered how to create a global system. “We didn’t know how. That’s why we did the feasibility study,” Glenn explains. The Cold War was still underway during the early exploratory phase, creating geopolitical tension and posing a threat to a truly global network – yet Glenn and his collaborators discovered that there were people around the world who were eager to participate; the network self-organized and has continued to do so ever since.

This type of network that is accessible to anyone interested in joining makes global collaboration possible. No matter what legal structure an organization may embody, or what challenges may loom, The Millennium Project inspires us to adopt inclusive, forward-looking participation in order to achieve the ambitious action required to create a more sustainable world.

----

Thanks, Kirstie.  We invite readers to comment on Kirstie's post!

Posted by Richard Maltzman on: April 26, 2021 09:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Crazy Biology

Photo by Paul Starosta / Getty Images

This is the story of a tiny water fern called Azolla filiculoides.  I came across this little plant critter in this article from Inverse magazine.

The article refers to a research project (and there are many projects based on this plant) in which scientists were able to sequence the genome of this species.  That article, from Nature, is available here:  Fern genomes elucidate land plant evolution and cyanobacterial symbioses

Having done this sequencing brings scientists one step closer to “understanding some of the crazy biology of these particular species”, according to Dr. Carl Rothfels, a co-author of the Nature article.  From that article:

Rothfels says that one of the most “extraordinary features” of this fern is its ability to have a symbiotic relationship with cyanobacteria, which in turn gives it the ability to “fix” nitrogen. Nitrogen fixation is the process by which plants use the chemical element as a fertilizer: Most plants typically can’t do this alone, but the blue-green cyanobacteria that live in the Azolla leaves allow for this process to happen. In turn, Azolla can sustain rapid growth in favorable conditions.

That’s important for multiple reasons, the first being that the fern shows “great promise as a biofuel,” says Rothfels. While it’s been used as a fertilizer for rice paddies in Asia for the past 1,000 years, he and his team are now curious to know whether it could be used as a sustainable fertilizer elsewhere. Its ability to help agricultural crops is compounded by its resistance to pests: Farmers have noticed for decades that bugs generally don’t like ferns, and now the sequencing of the Azolla genome reveals it carries certain genetic mutations that allow it to repel insects.

Azolla is more than 1,000 years old.  Much, much older, in fact.  About 50 million years ago, there was a huge “bloom” of this fern that may have reduced the CO2 in our atmosphere and helped cool of the earth.  To understand this, have a look at this brief video:

Amazing, huh?

Or have a look at this one:

The fern did it (reduce CO2 in the atmosphere and reduce the Earth’s temperature) then – could it do it again?  And even if not, are there other things about this crazy fern that could help us out?

One project that considers the use of this fern as a way to help farmers in Bangladesh, is being done at Colorado State University.  See that video here:

It also has some pretty fascinating fertilization capabilities – see this video:

But the real exciting idea here is using Azolla to fight climate change by becoming a carbon sink. 

From the article “Using Plants to Fight Climate Change”:

Azolla is a genus of seven species of tiny aquatic ferns that can resemble moss or algae at first glance. This specialized plant grows on the surface of freshwater and forms a symbiotic relationship with a cyanobacteria that fixes atmospheric nitrogen, which gives the azolla easy access to this essential nutrient and allowing for rapid growth in ideal conditions. But one of the most impressive skills of the azolla fern is its ability to draw down as much as 6 tonnes per acre of carbon dioxide per acre per year, in addition to a tonne of nitrogen per acre per year. With these powers, the azolla fern could be a major player in slowing down or even reversing climate change. 

Nitrogen fixation

In the previous videos you’ve seen that much of the power of this fern comes from a symbiosis with a bacteria called Anabaena.  This is called Nitrogen Fixation, something that’s worth learning about – and it’s doesn’t take a degree in biochemistry.  I found a very short and informative video that explains this:

Some of the most fascinating projects – and plants – are all around us!

Posted by Richard Maltzman on: April 24, 2021 11:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Cherry Blossom Projects

I’m currently in Washington, DC, and was reading an article about the Cherry Blossoms, which reminded me of a really optimistic, peppy Herb Albert tune from 1967.  You can watch it right here in this post – and you may need it after reading this.

Turns out, the Tidal Basin, one of Washington’s main tourist attractions, home to the just-blooming cherry blossoms, and surrounded with America’s most beloved Memorial monuments, is in big trouble, and not so far in the future, either.

From the April 2021 Washingtonian article by Daniella Byck, the timeline of events is scary:

Timeline (high tide figures shown):

  • 2040: Jefferson Memorial will stand in four feet of water
  • 2070: The MLK Memorial will stand in six feet of water
  • 2100: the FDR Memorial will stand in nine feet of water

…if the area is left without any intervention and climate change continues at predicted pace

Already, the cherry blossoms are in danger, with the 3800 cherry tree roots in brackish water from the Potomac River twice a day at high tide.  Sea-level rise is faster in Washington than anywhere else on the US East Coast, causing Washington to literally sink, predicted to sink half a foot by 2100.

What’s being done about it?

Well, aside from the overall effort to reduce climate change – a global effort of its own which seemed to fade into oblivion due to the onset of COVID-19 – there is a fascinating design challenge taking place amongst five architectural design firms, summarized in the article. 

Have a look at this video which describes the backdrop of the challenge, called the Tidal Basin Ideas Lab:

As you watch, note how they discuss it in a project context – after all, these architectural design firms are projectized organizations.

Think of it as a pre-project design workshop.  It is sponsored by the National Mall Trust

Below are some of the proposals – you can actually read the detailed proposals (in glorious PDF) here.

 

Entropy Solution: James Corner Field Operations

Multiple options including allowing the Basin to flood

Naturalist Approach: GGN

Incremental change over the next 70 years, including the creation of floodplain forests

Hush Harbor: Hood Design Studio

Scenarios based on the ‘hush harbors’ which enslaved people met to worship, new floodgates, an elevated track and others.

The Jetties: DLANDstudio

Create more land to absorb water and provide alternate pathways to the memorials, some of which are moved to elevated jetties.

The High Lines: Reed Hilderbrand

Create ‘adventure’ walkways for a variety of experiences for tourists, rebuild the seawall as a pathway with terraces.

So, there is some hope.  And now, maybe you’re ready for that upbeat video.  After all, once we get one of those excellent Project (actually probably a Program) Managers on it, it’ll be reality before you know it!

 

Posted by Richard Maltzman on: March 30, 2021 12:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
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