Project Management

Statistical PERT® (SPERT™) Estimation Worksheet for Task Duration Forecasting

By PMI South Florida Chapter

Format: Evaluation Assessment / Evaluation Form

Update for 2020! This spreadsheet has worksheets showing the results of a Monte Carlo simulation on a sample project's work effort hours, and a companion estimate using Statistical PERT.  This way, you can see how you can use just the built-in functions of Microsoft Excel to do probabilistic, risk-based estimation. Textbox comments have been added to the worksheets to aid in understanding. Use this in conjunction with the article Risk Management Starts Sooner Than You Think.

Version 4.3 includes: 

  • new statistics to the Monte Carlo simulation worksheet
  • burn-up chart; it now permits adding "Team Capacity" so the forecast lines adjust when a team has diminished capacity to work

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