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Topics: Quality, Schedule Management, Scheduling
Monte Carlo simulation

Is there value (is it possible?) in applying this technique in an on-going basis after the project is live and the project schedule is being updated with actual dates and % complete? My impression is that this is used in schedule development - am not sure how to do this with a combination of critical path and actual data.

Thoughts? References??
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Monte Carlo will always make sense to apply, in my opinion, for modelling of something.

If you have built your model to develop the schedule it will be easier and valuable to use it "in an on-going basis". With the results of the work completed you can adjust your parameters for the remaining taks and get better overall estimatives.

Thomas -

It can still be useful whenever you are looking at a significant change to the project resulting from a scope increase or other influence.


Any major change during the project or deliverables, it is worth always to use Monte Carlo

I agree with the guys here. Monte Carlo is always useful.

Monte Carlo can be used always with the ongoing changes to get better results.

And if you want to test various scenarios.

Monte Carlo Simulation is expected to be run in live, this helps you in predicting status and tackling the risks.

Just to add some comment, if you will use it along the time of the project depending on some situations you have to pay attention about some of the activities or group of activities have changed the type of probabilistic distribution. While in theory the Normal Distribution can be used is not right that all the artivities/group of activities can be described by it and that can make a distortion.

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