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Topics: Agile, Risk Management
How do you connect Monte Carlo and Agile?
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I've been studying agile for a little while and I think it is very nice. Being a risk guy myself, I wonder if there is any use for Monte Carlo in between sprints. Can you tell me something about that?
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Yes there is during risk management. You do risk management for Agile project more or less in the same way you do to traditional projects. The difference is that you try to eliminate higher risk at the early iterations. You run your Monte Carlo simulations based on data you gather. If you go through Mike Griffits book, you will find this explained there briefly.
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1 reply by Guilherme Caloba
Sep 12, 2018 3:20 PM
Guilherme Caloba
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Thank you, Rami, I'm still learning to walk on the agile, I only did the SFC certificate so far (the free one from ScrumStudy).
Network:809



Sep 12, 2018 3:06 PM
Replying to Rami Kaibni
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Yes there is during risk management. You do risk management for Agile project more or less in the same way you do to traditional projects. The difference is that you try to eliminate higher risk at the early iterations. You run your Monte Carlo simulations based on data you gather. If you go through Mike Griffits book, you will find this explained there briefly.
Thank you, Rami, I'm still learning to walk on the agile, I only did the SFC certificate so far (the free one from ScrumStudy).
...
1 reply by Rami Kaibni
Sep 12, 2018 3:30 PM
Rami Kaibni
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Good Luck Guilherme, it will be a great learnign experience I am sure. I am surprised with all your risk experience and articles, you haven't applied for the RMP certification - I am curious to know why if you care sharing.
Network:102948



Sep 12, 2018 3:20 PM
Replying to Guilherme Caloba
...
Thank you, Rami, I'm still learning to walk on the agile, I only did the SFC certificate so far (the free one from ScrumStudy).
Good Luck Guilherme, it will be a great learnign experience I am sure. I am surprised with all your risk experience and articles, you haven't applied for the RMP certification - I am curious to know why if you care sharing.
...
1 reply by Guilherme Caloba
Sep 13, 2018 8:16 AM
Guilherme Caloba
...
Rami, I've been dealing with Risk Analysis for almost 20 years now. It is my understanding that I must go forward and advance my career. That means both horizontally towards new topics, such as Agile, as vertically, gaining more knowledge on risk, for instance. In your opinion, how the RMP made a difference in your life? Thank you so much.
Network:1106



Guilherme & Rami -

there's a really great article out there titled "MONTE PYTHON SIMULATION: MISUNDERSTANDING MONTE CARLO" which you can Google for (I won't include the URL to avoid getting flamed by the community moderators) which cautions about the misuse of Monte Carlo for determining a range of project outcomes...

Kiron
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1 reply by Rami Kaibni
Sep 12, 2018 7:55 PM
Rami Kaibni
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Kiron,

This is a great article. I skimmed through it and I agree, it is a waste of time to do MC analysis for one iteration and it might be difficult to apply it in pure agile environments but here is a question:

From your experience, if someone wants to use MC Analysis for a pure agile project as a preliminary indicator of how the project looks like, is this reasonable and beneficial ? (Considering he or she made all necessary assumptions)
Network:1669



Using Monte Carlo simulation in Agile environments has no sense. You need activities and you need probablilistic distribution that characterize the activity so forget about it in Agile environments. You do not have activities. You have features.
Network:102948



Sep 12, 2018 5:33 PM
Replying to Kiron Bondale
...
Guilherme & Rami -

there's a really great article out there titled "MONTE PYTHON SIMULATION: MISUNDERSTANDING MONTE CARLO" which you can Google for (I won't include the URL to avoid getting flamed by the community moderators) which cautions about the misuse of Monte Carlo for determining a range of project outcomes...

Kiron
Kiron,

This is a great article. I skimmed through it and I agree, it is a waste of time to do MC analysis for one iteration and it might be difficult to apply it in pure agile environments but here is a question:

From your experience, if someone wants to use MC Analysis for a pure agile project as a preliminary indicator of how the project looks like, is this reasonable and beneficial ? (Considering he or she made all necessary assumptions)
...
1 reply by Kiron Bondale
Sep 13, 2018 7:37 AM
Kiron Bondale
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Rami -

The author's point is that unless we are performing an activity multiple times with little variance it is of little value to use MC. A project is a unique endeavor so attempting to forecast overall schedule or cost for a solo event using MC wouldn't be effective.

Now there could be specific decisions on a project where there is a higher degree of repeatability where it could be used...

Kiron
Network:14377



Haven't seen it used yet in Agile projects.
Network:1106



Sep 12, 2018 7:55 PM
Replying to Rami Kaibni
...
Kiron,

This is a great article. I skimmed through it and I agree, it is a waste of time to do MC analysis for one iteration and it might be difficult to apply it in pure agile environments but here is a question:

From your experience, if someone wants to use MC Analysis for a pure agile project as a preliminary indicator of how the project looks like, is this reasonable and beneficial ? (Considering he or she made all necessary assumptions)
Rami -

The author's point is that unless we are performing an activity multiple times with little variance it is of little value to use MC. A project is a unique endeavor so attempting to forecast overall schedule or cost for a solo event using MC wouldn't be effective.

Now there could be specific decisions on a project where there is a higher degree of repeatability where it could be used...

Kiron
...
1 reply by Rami Kaibni
Sep 13, 2018 3:16 PM
Rami Kaibni
...
Thanks a lot Kiron, that makes lots of sense by the way.
Network:809



Sep 12, 2018 3:30 PM
Replying to Rami Kaibni
...
Good Luck Guilherme, it will be a great learnign experience I am sure. I am surprised with all your risk experience and articles, you haven't applied for the RMP certification - I am curious to know why if you care sharing.
Rami, I've been dealing with Risk Analysis for almost 20 years now. It is my understanding that I must go forward and advance my career. That means both horizontally towards new topics, such as Agile, as vertically, gaining more knowledge on risk, for instance. In your opinion, how the RMP made a difference in your life? Thank you so much.
...
1 reply by Rami Kaibni
Sep 13, 2018 3:13 PM
Rami Kaibni
...
None of the certificates made a difference in my life per say. However, every certificate added value in terms of knowledge thats for sure and definitely helped boost my career. Good Luck with your plans.
Network:102948



Sep 13, 2018 8:16 AM
Replying to Guilherme Caloba
...
Rami, I've been dealing with Risk Analysis for almost 20 years now. It is my understanding that I must go forward and advance my career. That means both horizontally towards new topics, such as Agile, as vertically, gaining more knowledge on risk, for instance. In your opinion, how the RMP made a difference in your life? Thank you so much.
None of the certificates made a difference in my life per say. However, every certificate added value in terms of knowledge thats for sure and definitely helped boost my career. Good Luck with your plans.
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