Project Management Central

Please login or join to subscribe to this thread

Topics: Risk Management
Any Recommendation for the system dynamic modelling approach in the application of improvement of projects risk assessment using STELLA or VenSim
Network:108



Creating the conceptual and simulation models,
Sort By:
Network:0



I've never seen risk assessment modeled in SD before. Due to the qualitative nature of risk identification in projects it seems to defy conventional mathematical modeling.
You may want to check the Systems Engineering BoK from INCOSE on how this may be approached.
...
3 replies by Mohamed Abdelkhalek
Sep 20, 2018 9:54 AM
Mohamed Abdelkhalek
...
SD software (e.g. Powersim, Stella and Vensim) are relatively
user friendly and traffic safety researchers should not have major
difficulties in learning the tool. However, as with any modeling
tool, its ease of use may facilitate development of poorly validated
models. The importance of quality data, sensitivity analysis and detailed
model testing is critical. However, when quality data is not
available, preliminary models can still be developed based on expert
opinion/judgement and using qualitative data (Burchill and
Fine, 1997). Such models are especially useful when the scenarios
are too complex for experts to assess directly or when it involves
new projects
Sep 20, 2018 9:55 AM
Mohamed Abdelkhalek
...
Problem articulation involves specifying the problem of concern
and scoping the analysis to prevent the inclusion of too much or
little detail in the model. At the problem articulation stage, ‘reference
modes’ or time series charts of key parameters are used to explain
a systems behavior. The formulation of dynamic hypothesis
usually employs qualitative methods to create causal loop diagrams
(e.g. Marais et al., 2006; Goh et al., 2012), which are essentially
influence diagrams that allow circular connections between
variables.
Sep 20, 2018 10:01 AM
Mohamed Abdelkhalek
...
System Dynamics (SD) is a discipline of researching on system information feedback and solving the problems integrated in system. It holds that the behavior patterns and characteristics of system primarily depend on the mechanism of system s internal dynamic feedback structure. It emphasizes that research and analyze problems should in overall, contact, development and movement point of view, using system reasoning and the
combination of qualitative and quantitative method to simulate the dynamic development of system and its trend
for long-term dynamic strategic quantitative analysis.


© 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of Chinese Overseas Transportation Association (COTA).
Keywords: System dynamics model; Passenger transportation structure; Evolution ; Road traffic status
Corresponding author. Tel.: (86)21-69583704; fax: (86)21-69589882.
E-mail address: tongjiyc@tongji.edu.cn
Network:108



Sep 19, 2018 6:10 PM
Replying to Conrad Drumheiser
...
I've never seen risk assessment modeled in SD before. Due to the qualitative nature of risk identification in projects it seems to defy conventional mathematical modeling.
You may want to check the Systems Engineering BoK from INCOSE on how this may be approached.
SD software (e.g. Powersim, Stella and Vensim) are relatively
user friendly and traffic safety researchers should not have major
difficulties in learning the tool. However, as with any modeling
tool, its ease of use may facilitate development of poorly validated
models. The importance of quality data, sensitivity analysis and detailed
model testing is critical. However, when quality data is not
available, preliminary models can still be developed based on expert
opinion/judgement and using qualitative data (Burchill and
Fine, 1997). Such models are especially useful when the scenarios
are too complex for experts to assess directly or when it involves
new projects
Network:108



Sep 19, 2018 6:10 PM
Replying to Conrad Drumheiser
...
I've never seen risk assessment modeled in SD before. Due to the qualitative nature of risk identification in projects it seems to defy conventional mathematical modeling.
You may want to check the Systems Engineering BoK from INCOSE on how this may be approached.
Problem articulation involves specifying the problem of concern
and scoping the analysis to prevent the inclusion of too much or
little detail in the model. At the problem articulation stage, ‘reference
modes’ or time series charts of key parameters are used to explain
a systems behavior. The formulation of dynamic hypothesis
usually employs qualitative methods to create causal loop diagrams
(e.g. Marais et al., 2006; Goh et al., 2012), which are essentially
influence diagrams that allow circular connections between
variables.
Network:108



Sep 19, 2018 6:10 PM
Replying to Conrad Drumheiser
...
I've never seen risk assessment modeled in SD before. Due to the qualitative nature of risk identification in projects it seems to defy conventional mathematical modeling.
You may want to check the Systems Engineering BoK from INCOSE on how this may be approached.
System Dynamics (SD) is a discipline of researching on system information feedback and solving the problems integrated in system. It holds that the behavior patterns and characteristics of system primarily depend on the mechanism of system s internal dynamic feedback structure. It emphasizes that research and analyze problems should in overall, contact, development and movement point of view, using system reasoning and the
combination of qualitative and quantitative method to simulate the dynamic development of system and its trend
for long-term dynamic strategic quantitative analysis.


© 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of Chinese Overseas Transportation Association (COTA).
Keywords: System dynamics model; Passenger transportation structure; Evolution ; Road traffic status
Corresponding author. Tel.: (86)21-69583704; fax: (86)21-69589882.
E-mail address: tongjiyc@tongji.edu.cn

Please login or join to reply

Content ID:
ADVERTISEMENTS

"More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly."

- Woody Allen

ADVERTISEMENT

Sponsors

Vendor Events

See all Vendor Events