Please login or join to subscribe to this thread
I've never seen risk assessment modeled in SD before. Due to the qualitative nature of risk identification in projects it seems to defy conventional mathematical modeling.
You may want to check the Systems Engineering BoK from INCOSE on how this may be approached.
user friendly and traffic safety researchers should not have major
difficulties in learning the tool. However, as with any modeling
tool, its ease of use may facilitate development of poorly validated
models. The importance of quality data, sensitivity analysis and detailed
model testing is critical. However, when quality data is not
available, preliminary models can still be developed based on expert
opinion/judgement and using qualitative data (Burchill and
Fine, 1997). Such models are especially useful when the scenarios
are too complex for experts to assess directly or when it involves
and scoping the analysis to prevent the inclusion of too much or
little detail in the model. At the problem articulation stage, ‘reference
modes’ or time series charts of key parameters are used to explain
a systems behavior. The formulation of dynamic hypothesis
usually employs qualitative methods to create causal loop diagrams
(e.g. Marais et al., 2006; Goh et al., 2012), which are essentially
influence diagrams that allow circular connections between
combination of qualitative and quantitative method to simulate the dynamic development of system and its trend
for long-term dynamic strategic quantitative analysis.
© 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of Chinese Overseas Transportation Association (COTA).
Keywords: System dynamics model; Passenger transportation structure; Evolution ; Road traffic status
Corresponding author. Tel.: (86)21-69583704; fax: (86)21-69589882.
E-mail address: email@example.com
Please login or join to reply