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Topics: Risk Management
Is there a guideline for the probability of risk occurence ?
We are in the process of defining standard parameters for our tool for risk management. As we all know, 'Probability' is an important factor to consider. In order for all the PMs to have a common understanding of High-Medium-Low, I would like to provide % of probability. eg. H-M-L where H represents %50-%100, M- represents %25-50, and L represents %0-25. What would be the best practices ?
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The split you make in percentage may work. However if you choose 50-100 equals High most likely half of the risks will end up in the category high. I do think you want to pay attention to the most risky topics
I would suggest 0-35% is Low
35%-75% is Medium
75%-100% is High

More important than quantifying the probability is to have risk management integrated into your day to day project management. Focus on risks that might occur in the near future.

More to be found in

hopes this helps

We use the same approach as advised by Hans. We also maintain an Estimating Database (an Excel file) that among other things provides a Risk Occurence Rating and suggested mitigation. This is particulary useful for projects with groups and resources (internal and external) that have a track record delivering late for one reason or another.

One of the main failures I have sen in risk management is were you use % for your risk analysis. This is not a quantifyable figure and one persons 10% is anothers 90%.

When you defined your % also place figures against them for Performance, Time & Cost (PCT) aspects of the project. Agree these with the Project sponsor/owner and each risk will be assessed the same.

See my example attached that I have used from small software project to major multimillon £/$ IT/Telecomms infrastructure projects.

File attached.

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