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Topics: Healthcare, Leadership, Risk Management
Has World Welth Organizational a true risk plan where the pandemic scenario is addressed?
Do you think that the national health organization has risk plans to prevent / mitigate pandemics. Why is my impression that they are reacting to the events, with application of unordered measures between countries to try to avoid the worst with contingency plans?
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Dear Alexandre
Interesting your question
Thanks for sharing

We are experiencing a completely new situation: virus, spread and preventive and / or curative measures

Not long ago, the National Director of Health Services in Portugal declared that the virus would not arrive here (which reveals some unconsciousness on the part of the government)

People react in an unpredictable way (example of what happened in Ukraine or the rush to supermarkets and pharmacies and / or beach days in Carcavelos)

Rumors and truths circulating about COVID-19 have unimaginable consequences

The scarcity of means of diagnosis and / or life support implies such measures: "abandoning people over 65 to their fate"

The governments of some countries show a certain chauvinism (the United States decreed the banning of flights and goods from Europe, some countries in Europe closing their borders), while others show solidarity (China supports Europe in fighting the virus)

Stock exchanges "going wild" one day and rising the next (surely there are people or organizations taking advantage of this situation)

I think that, in the situation we live in today, it is difficult to say whether the measures being taken are the most effective

I can only say that nothing will be as before
...
1 reply by Alexandre Costa
Mar 14, 2020 10:29 AM
Alexandre Costa
...
Dear Luis,

Never will be as before for me is an incognita, taking as an example the bank crash, the same things were said , nothing will be as before and regulation it will be stronger then ever, the years passed, people forgot and everything is practically the same waiting for another crash.

But I have not doubts that in this case some behaviors and practices will change.

Alexandre
Alexandre -

It is quite likely that this was in their risk registers, but not up to the level of severity to demand a strong proactive response. Post-SARS, many countries did institute some good systems but vigilance fades with time and COVID-19 is a different "beast" than SARS so there are new unknown-unknowns to deal with.

My take is that once this subsides, there will be a temporary boost in preparation for such future calamities but again, human nature will set in and future risks will be seen as less severe than immediate ones...
...
1 reply by Alexandre Costa
Mar 14, 2020 10:14 AM
Alexandre Costa
...
Kiron,

I have no doubts that is in their register log, this why I called a true risk plan, but the response plan was much undersized. I think the world already had many warnings about a possible future, since mad cow disease many people still die on that about 200 a year, bird flu 359 people have died from H5N1 since then several mutations to the virus occurred, 2013 to early 2017, 916 lab-confirmed human cases of H7N9 were reported to WHO with about 40 deads. The common factor in this cases was that they knew the precise origin of the focus opposite from covid-19 that they imagine that was originated at a market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan where bats, snakes and other wild animals were traded in addition to fish. The virus was transmitted from animals to humans. Here we can not kill the cows and burn the birds as we done before. We are only able to contain the spread of the disease.
But with overpopulation and less space left for wild animals I think the mother nature will be much more unpredictable, and not being an expert in the pandemic health cases I bet the next case will be always worst from the previous.

Alexandre.
Mar 14, 2020 9:37 AM
Replying to Kiron Bondale
...
Alexandre -

It is quite likely that this was in their risk registers, but not up to the level of severity to demand a strong proactive response. Post-SARS, many countries did institute some good systems but vigilance fades with time and COVID-19 is a different "beast" than SARS so there are new unknown-unknowns to deal with.

My take is that once this subsides, there will be a temporary boost in preparation for such future calamities but again, human nature will set in and future risks will be seen as less severe than immediate ones...
Kiron,

I have no doubts that is in their register log, this why I called a true risk plan, but the response plan was much undersized. I think the world already had many warnings about a possible future, since mad cow disease many people still die on that about 200 a year, bird flu 359 people have died from H5N1 since then several mutations to the virus occurred, 2013 to early 2017, 916 lab-confirmed human cases of H7N9 were reported to WHO with about 40 deads. The common factor in this cases was that they knew the precise origin of the focus opposite from covid-19 that they imagine that was originated at a market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan where bats, snakes and other wild animals were traded in addition to fish. The virus was transmitted from animals to humans. Here we can not kill the cows and burn the birds as we done before. We are only able to contain the spread of the disease.
But with overpopulation and less space left for wild animals I think the mother nature will be much more unpredictable, and not being an expert in the pandemic health cases I bet the next case will be always worst from the previous.

Alexandre.
...
1 reply by Kiron Bondale
Mar 14, 2020 5:39 PM
Kiron Bondale
...
The funny thing is that they still have not conclusively identified the mutation journey of this virus. The working hypothesis is that it jumped from bats to pangolins to humans but has that been proven? It seems reasonable that when you put species which normally would not be co-located in close proximity in humid environments that pathogens could jump from one species to another and mutate but even if that is proven as the true source, will there be sufficient energy to ban such markets or at least to put in quality measures to reduce the likelihood of species-to-species transmission and mutation?

Kiron
Mar 14, 2020 7:36 AM
Replying to Luis Branco
...
Dear Alexandre
Interesting your question
Thanks for sharing

We are experiencing a completely new situation: virus, spread and preventive and / or curative measures

Not long ago, the National Director of Health Services in Portugal declared that the virus would not arrive here (which reveals some unconsciousness on the part of the government)

People react in an unpredictable way (example of what happened in Ukraine or the rush to supermarkets and pharmacies and / or beach days in Carcavelos)

Rumors and truths circulating about COVID-19 have unimaginable consequences

The scarcity of means of diagnosis and / or life support implies such measures: "abandoning people over 65 to their fate"

The governments of some countries show a certain chauvinism (the United States decreed the banning of flights and goods from Europe, some countries in Europe closing their borders), while others show solidarity (China supports Europe in fighting the virus)

Stock exchanges "going wild" one day and rising the next (surely there are people or organizations taking advantage of this situation)

I think that, in the situation we live in today, it is difficult to say whether the measures being taken are the most effective

I can only say that nothing will be as before
Dear Luis,

Never will be as before for me is an incognita, taking as an example the bank crash, the same things were said , nothing will be as before and regulation it will be stronger then ever, the years passed, people forgot and everything is practically the same waiting for another crash.

But I have not doubts that in this case some behaviors and practices will change.

Alexandre
Alexandre

As you and all our colleagues mentioned, WHO definitely has risk management plans but it all depends on the severity of the event which might call for fallback plans, secondary plans and other measures.

RK
Mar 14, 2020 10:14 AM
Replying to Alexandre Costa
...
Kiron,

I have no doubts that is in their register log, this why I called a true risk plan, but the response plan was much undersized. I think the world already had many warnings about a possible future, since mad cow disease many people still die on that about 200 a year, bird flu 359 people have died from H5N1 since then several mutations to the virus occurred, 2013 to early 2017, 916 lab-confirmed human cases of H7N9 were reported to WHO with about 40 deads. The common factor in this cases was that they knew the precise origin of the focus opposite from covid-19 that they imagine that was originated at a market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan where bats, snakes and other wild animals were traded in addition to fish. The virus was transmitted from animals to humans. Here we can not kill the cows and burn the birds as we done before. We are only able to contain the spread of the disease.
But with overpopulation and less space left for wild animals I think the mother nature will be much more unpredictable, and not being an expert in the pandemic health cases I bet the next case will be always worst from the previous.

Alexandre.
The funny thing is that they still have not conclusively identified the mutation journey of this virus. The working hypothesis is that it jumped from bats to pangolins to humans but has that been proven? It seems reasonable that when you put species which normally would not be co-located in close proximity in humid environments that pathogens could jump from one species to another and mutate but even if that is proven as the true source, will there be sufficient energy to ban such markets or at least to put in quality measures to reduce the likelihood of species-to-species transmission and mutation?

Kiron
...
1 reply by Rami Kaibni
Mar 15, 2020 3:03 PM
Rami Kaibni
...
From my POV as someone who lived in China for 3 years, I very highly doubt they can completely eliminate those markets. If you didn't live there, you won't know how much those market are part of the culture itself. They are amazing markets but the government might take precautions and impose some additional rules.

We shall wait and see.

RK
Alexander

I think the first thing to understand is that the WHO has no real power in the execution of any mitigation plan. The pandemic epicentre that started in China, is now in Europe and should be in America within days. Each country needs to put what it thinks is necessary in place. And according to country legislation health is managed at different levels.
Here in Canada, some action needs to be taken at the top level (federal) and some at the provincial level, we can seem that each province takes a different approach. For example in Quebec school system is close for two weeks and Ontario is for 3 weeks, I didn't check other provinces. International travel is control at the federal level. That is here.

In the US other measures are taken.

WHO can suggest but it is to each country to put measures in place. WHO doesn't supersede countries yet!

Like in a project the PM can manage certain risk the organization others.

Since viruses can't spread from plan to animals, we should all be vegan. :-)
...
1 reply by Alexandre Costa
Mar 14, 2020 7:32 PM
Alexandre Costa
...
Vincent,

I am aware of the power of the WHO (or lack of power) but the organization even so should be more proactive with the dissemination of the information and all governments should at least follow the recommendations of the organization that is only most reputed institution and i think with more global knowledge about pandemic diseases.

I agree with you that the governments are reacting slowly and with different measures without any kind of coordinated effort. In Portugal the schools were closed Friday without opening forecast, slowly all other establishments are taken the same measures like nightclubs, bars, shopping malls, markets and stores are reducing the opening time, Spain today has declared emergency state. The projections made by the Portuguese government point out that we only will reach the epidemic peak in 2 months. I wonder how much time the local and global economy can withstand this stagnation and all families affected by the measures taken, we are very close of becoming police states.

At least you make me smile with the vegan solution, i think even then mother nature will find something to resolve the problem of overpopulation, nevertheless the losses are not compared to the the pests that plagued the world in the medieval age and I hope we never get to that point one day.

Alexandre
Mar 14, 2020 6:07 PM
Replying to Vincent Guerard
...
Alexander

I think the first thing to understand is that the WHO has no real power in the execution of any mitigation plan. The pandemic epicentre that started in China, is now in Europe and should be in America within days. Each country needs to put what it thinks is necessary in place. And according to country legislation health is managed at different levels.
Here in Canada, some action needs to be taken at the top level (federal) and some at the provincial level, we can seem that each province takes a different approach. For example in Quebec school system is close for two weeks and Ontario is for 3 weeks, I didn't check other provinces. International travel is control at the federal level. That is here.

In the US other measures are taken.

WHO can suggest but it is to each country to put measures in place. WHO doesn't supersede countries yet!

Like in a project the PM can manage certain risk the organization others.

Since viruses can't spread from plan to animals, we should all be vegan. :-)
Vincent,

I am aware of the power of the WHO (or lack of power) but the organization even so should be more proactive with the dissemination of the information and all governments should at least follow the recommendations of the organization that is only most reputed institution and i think with more global knowledge about pandemic diseases.

I agree with you that the governments are reacting slowly and with different measures without any kind of coordinated effort. In Portugal the schools were closed Friday without opening forecast, slowly all other establishments are taken the same measures like nightclubs, bars, shopping malls, markets and stores are reducing the opening time, Spain today has declared emergency state. The projections made by the Portuguese government point out that we only will reach the epidemic peak in 2 months. I wonder how much time the local and global economy can withstand this stagnation and all families affected by the measures taken, we are very close of becoming police states.

At least you make me smile with the vegan solution, i think even then mother nature will find something to resolve the problem of overpopulation, nevertheless the losses are not compared to the the pests that plagued the world in the medieval age and I hope we never get to that point one day.

Alexandre
Mar 14, 2020 5:39 PM
Replying to Kiron Bondale
...
The funny thing is that they still have not conclusively identified the mutation journey of this virus. The working hypothesis is that it jumped from bats to pangolins to humans but has that been proven? It seems reasonable that when you put species which normally would not be co-located in close proximity in humid environments that pathogens could jump from one species to another and mutate but even if that is proven as the true source, will there be sufficient energy to ban such markets or at least to put in quality measures to reduce the likelihood of species-to-species transmission and mutation?

Kiron
From my POV as someone who lived in China for 3 years, I very highly doubt they can completely eliminate those markets. If you didn't live there, you won't know how much those market are part of the culture itself. They are amazing markets but the government might take precautions and impose some additional rules.

We shall wait and see.

RK

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