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Creating a simple Flow chart with all the decision flows will be the first step before going into a excel spreadsheet before actually depicting them and creating a Decision tree tool
I recommend that you don't focus on creating new tools to measure success. Instead, focus on the milestones. Each milestone is by proxy a measurement (metric).
Using PMBOK, complete your initiating and planning process. Draw out the small, medium, and large milestones and give them a duration of 0 Days.
Your advice is indeed valid, but once the project has started I feel (maybe to adapt the model?). My aim is to help PM select a methodology at project start based on previous projects' metrics, by analogy.
A simplistic example: a previous 3000 man/day successful project was managed in Agile; my project is estimated 3000 m/d, so using Agile will lead to success...
Then adding all known project metrics to the decision tree...
I fully agree.
Once you laid down all your milestones (contraints, deliverables, etc...) you get all your metrics.
This is when a decision tree could help, based on previous projects metrics...
This can be done by experienced PMs (because they probably have lots of project know-how), but for junior PMs who have managed 2-3 projects, I feel an organisational asset such as this decision tree could be helpful.
Methodology is itself a tool. Which one to be used, really depends on the specific organization, desired outcomes, client expectations, etc.
Have you considered using your project reviews to build the decision tree? Another potential source would be project audits.
The PRINCE2 Agile has a lot of focus on selecting between waterfall and Agile, and also on answering the question "How Agile can this project be?" given the constraints (clients willingness to be involved, the organisations willingness and maturity for Agile, ...)
Have a look at https://www.axelos.com/best-practice-solut...2/prince2-agile and https://www.amazon.com/Prince2-Agile-Stati.../dp/0113314671/
There is a big mistake here. Agile and Waterfall are not matter of comparision. Agile is a practice that you can apply with any type of life cycle process (waterfall for example). Waterfall is a life cycle process derivated from predictive life cycle models. So, you can not compare them.
In reading the thread, I see there are varying perceptions of Agile, Scrum and Waterfall. Here is how I understand it.
Agile - is not a methodology - it is a mindset - a way of thinking that promotes flexibility and collaboration - this can/should be used in every aspect of business, project or no.
Scrum - Originally a development methodology, especially valuable in project management when specifications are less defined and/or subject to frequent changes during the life of the project.
Waterfall - A project management methodology driven by comprehensive planning, most effective when project specifications are clearly defined with few anticipated changes during the life of the project.
When determining the most effective methodology, I agree that PM's would benefit from a standard decision tree tool to support their recommendations.
Most organizations which have gone through or are in the midst of an agile transformation will create a profiling tool which asks a bunch of questions to determine how suitable a given initiative is for an adaptive delivery approach.
The key is to not have the tool provide the decision but rather to support the decision or to identify risks with a given decision.
Some attributes to include are:
- Dedicated key roles (e.g. PO, SM, primary team members)
- Ability to deliver the scope of the project in pieces rather than as a big bang
- Degree of reliance on third parties
- How fixed or flexible are the requirements?
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