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Topics: Estimating
Project schedule
Network:1677



Do you have any experience in simulating the project using Monte Carlo analysis to determine whether the project will complete as scheduled?

Please let me know
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Network:1937



Yes, I do. It is not trivial. And from my point of view, in the actual world, it has no sense except for very very specific type of projects.
Network:16203



I concur with Sergio, very specific projects. The two times I came across it in a project was more a case of a stakeholder requesting its use rather than it being really needed. But then often a stakeholder's request (read as requirement) is all that's needed to justify its use.
Network:1937



And sorry for intervene again. I´d like to clarify why it is not trivial. To do things correctly you have several things to take into account. For example, you have to know the type of distribution that corresponds to each activity inside your schedule. Obviously you can work at work package level, but you have to know the type of distribution in any way. That will impact in you have to deal with statistics error management. Moreover I can write other things.Has it sense to spend time on it (despite you have to have the needed information)? It depends on the type of project and mainly the product you are creating.
Network:54



Hi Anish,

It was not clear if you have a specific type of project or if it you just have a simple interest. In any case, if you could collect the raw data needed to build your model for the Monte Carlo simulation, then executing the model would be possible. However, as Sergio mention, it may be difficult to capture the raw data. I would think in addition to the estimate data for your work packages, you would also need to consider risk estimates as well.

However, if you do collect the data....you could use excel based tools to execute your model such as Oracle’s Crystal Ball. (It has license price.)
...
1 reply by Anish Abraham
Oct 21, 2017 11:44 PM
Anish Abraham
...
I don't have any specific project in mind but I was told that Monte Carlo simulation would be good for certain projects. So, I was wondering whether you guys have any experience with this.

Anyway thanks for your response.
Network:1677



Oct 21, 2017 9:16 PM
Replying to Gloria Miller
...
Hi Anish,

It was not clear if you have a specific type of project or if it you just have a simple interest. In any case, if you could collect the raw data needed to build your model for the Monte Carlo simulation, then executing the model would be possible. However, as Sergio mention, it may be difficult to capture the raw data. I would think in addition to the estimate data for your work packages, you would also need to consider risk estimates as well.

However, if you do collect the data....you could use excel based tools to execute your model such as Oracle’s Crystal Ball. (It has license price.)
I don't have any specific project in mind but I was told that Monte Carlo simulation would be good for certain projects. So, I was wondering whether you guys have any experience with this.

Anyway thanks for your response.
Network:68



Hi Anish,

Yes, I do have experience of simulating the project using Monte Carlo analysis to determine whether the project will complete as scheduled.

It basically boils down to making a Project Master Schedule (PMS) which is also well know as Project Manager's Strategy to meet Quality, Safety & Profitability norms including Risk Management & Client's Satisfaction.

It's not a software that drives it but a fabulous human brain makes all the difference !
Let me know if you need to know more about it.

Best Regards,
...
1 reply by Anish Abraham
Dec 02, 2017 9:14 PM
Anish Abraham
...
Mandar, Sorry for the delay in responding.

I would like to know more about simulating the project. Please let me know.
Network:1698



Anish -

Taking Sergio's caveats into consideration, it can be very useful when you are bidding on a project and wish to know whether a particular estimate is realistic or not.

But as usual, garbage in-garbage out...

Kiron
Network:1677



Thanks for all your valuable comments, I appreciate it.
Network:1677



Oct 21, 2017 11:57 PM
Replying to Mandar Guhagarkar
...
Hi Anish,

Yes, I do have experience of simulating the project using Monte Carlo analysis to determine whether the project will complete as scheduled.

It basically boils down to making a Project Master Schedule (PMS) which is also well know as Project Manager's Strategy to meet Quality, Safety & Profitability norms including Risk Management & Client's Satisfaction.

It's not a software that drives it but a fabulous human brain makes all the difference !
Let me know if you need to know more about it.

Best Regards,
Mandar, Sorry for the delay in responding.

I would like to know more about simulating the project. Please let me know.

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