Project Management

Project Management Central

Please login or join to subscribe to this thread

Topics: Risk Management
HELP in this risk question
Seller A may provides the materials at time with probability 60% and confidence level 55%.
Seller B may provides the materials at time with probability 40% and confidence level 90%.
You will select -----------------.
A) select B because the confidence higher than A.
B) Select A because the probability higher than B.
C) Data insufficient.
D) Select B because the selection based one cumulative value of probability and confidence level.
Sort By:
I would say D (preferred) or C
D because 55% of 60 is 33% and 90% of 40 is 36%. So I am going with the higher confidence * probability.
Select A because the probability higher than B.
Because in ( B ) , Probability decreases 20% sharp though high increase in confidence however if you have substantial data ( C ) to justify 90% confidence then Review Again .
This is just like your other risk question, Mohamed. Unless told otherwise, you can see that others are also assuming that probability is the likelihood of success, rather than failure. They are also applying the formula I gave you.
For the question D. Resolution similar to your other post.
In real life would request more information
I too would select D
I too would select D

Please login or join to reply

Content ID:
ADVERTISEMENTS

"Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest."

- Mark Twain