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Topics: Risk Management
Expert opinion: how do you do it?
Network:85



Whenever we are doing a quantiative risk analysis for a project we need to obtain uncertaintes from experts. How do you generally do? What distributions you end up using? How do you include discrete events?
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Network:641



Guilherme -

1. Use a combination of techniques - expert judgment, documented historical data, third-party industry data (if available)

2. Try to overcome individual bias by using tools such as Delphi method

When it comes to picking the "right" distribution, you could assume a normal distribution if the data appears to support that, but often times with service-focused time data, a lognormal distribution might end up being the better fit.

With discrete events, I usually would look to historical data assuming it is accurate and complete.

Kiron
Network:82681



I second Kiron's feedback - From my experience, expert judgement can make a big positive difference.
Network:9315



Quantitative risk analysis is best left in the hands of experts.
Network:500



Experts should do Quantitative Risk analysis base on previous experience, probability of risk occurrence and its possible impact on business.
Network:3402



Me too second Kiron. From my point of view expert judgement, historical records are best choices

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