Project Management Central

Please login or join to subscribe to this thread

Topics: Risk Management
Expert opinion: how do you do it?
Network:739



Whenever we are doing a quantiative risk analysis for a project we need to obtain uncertaintes from experts. How do you generally do? What distributions you end up using? How do you include discrete events?
Sort By:
Network:1058



Guilherme -

1. Use a combination of techniques - expert judgment, documented historical data, third-party industry data (if available)

2. Try to overcome individual bias by using tools such as Delphi method

When it comes to picking the "right" distribution, you could assume a normal distribution if the data appears to support that, but often times with service-focused time data, a lognormal distribution might end up being the better fit.

With discrete events, I usually would look to historical data assuming it is accurate and complete.

Kiron
Network:100978



I second Kiron's feedback - From my experience, expert judgement can make a big positive difference.
Network:13974



Quantitative risk analysis is best left in the hands of experts.
Network:617



Experts should do Quantitative Risk analysis base on previous experience, probability of risk occurrence and its possible impact on business.
Network:4191



Me too second Kiron. From my point of view expert judgement, historical records are best choices

Please login or join to reply

Content ID:
ADVERTISEMENTS

I watched the Indy 500, and I was thinking that if they left earlier they wouldn't have to go so fast.

- Steven Wright

ADVERTISEMENT

Sponsors