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Topics: Risk Management
Expert opinion: how do you do it?

Whenever we are doing a quantiative risk analysis for a project we need to obtain uncertaintes from experts. How do you generally do? What distributions you end up using? How do you include discrete events?
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Guilherme -

1. Use a combination of techniques - expert judgment, documented historical data, third-party industry data (if available)

2. Try to overcome individual bias by using tools such as Delphi method

When it comes to picking the "right" distribution, you could assume a normal distribution if the data appears to support that, but often times with service-focused time data, a lognormal distribution might end up being the better fit.

With discrete events, I usually would look to historical data assuming it is accurate and complete.


I second Kiron's feedback - From my experience, expert judgement can make a big positive difference.

Quantitative risk analysis is best left in the hands of experts.

Experts should do Quantitative Risk analysis base on previous experience, probability of risk occurrence and its possible impact on business.

Me too second Kiron. From my point of view expert judgement, historical records are best choices

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