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Good estimates come from good designs
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My understanding is that good estimates only come from convincing designs and requirements. Of course It should be the work of entire team. If the team aren't invested in the process we cannot expect reliable estimates. Do you think we need to acknowledge weak estimates if we are comfortable with schedule risk? What is your opinion?
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A weak estimate is an indication of either inadequate requirements specifications or poor knowledge the industry market conditions, and I would therefore as much as possible avoid it. A weak estimate would lead to unnecessarily high reserves in the project budget,. It increases the project risk. Anish, this is my opinion
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1 reply by Anish Abraham
Dec 16, 2017 11:43 PM
Anish Abraham
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Osamudiamen, Thanks for your response. I think there's nothing wrong with weak or low quality estimates on smaller projects where these estimates may be all the project needs.

Anyway this is my opinion.
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Dec 16, 2017 8:29 PM
Replying to Osamudiamen Amadin
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A weak estimate is an indication of either inadequate requirements specifications or poor knowledge the industry market conditions, and I would therefore as much as possible avoid it. A weak estimate would lead to unnecessarily high reserves in the project budget,. It increases the project risk. Anish, this is my opinion
Osamudiamen, Thanks for your response. I think there's nothing wrong with weak or low quality estimates on smaller projects where these estimates may be all the project needs.

Anyway this is my opinion.
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In organizations with high level of maturity, we depend on the organizational system and knowledge base to estimate projects, we do go around asking people for their estimate. But, I keep forgetting many organizations go through the illusion of managing projects but in reality they barely touch on the core priniciples
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Weak estimates are ok sometimes, just look at Agile projects ;-)
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2 replies by Anish Abraham and Sergio Luis Conte
Dec 17, 2017 6:31 AM
Sergio Luis Conte
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Here I am @Sante (hehehehehe). Estimation method is totally independent of the life cycle method/process you use. Most of the Agile based method use something named "storie points". Storie points is the worst method in terms of estimations related the amount of uncertainty (something inherent into each estimation) you get because it depends a lot of previous experiences with similar product/service/result you are creating. Then, do you not have to use it? No. What you have to make is to adjust the results. There are some methods to adjusts the results linked to information available for other methods like function points.
Dec 17, 2017 10:46 AM
Anish Abraham
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Sante, thanks for your response. I agree that in Agile methods the future is always volatile, so they bet on processes that incorporate easy direction changes. But my understanding is that in projects that have high production costs they invest heavily in planning and designing activities.
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Not at all. Mainly because "good" is a subjective word. Definition of estimation: best guess based on available information and time. That´s all you have to take into account to estimate and to publish the results. I always use Barry Bohem´s Cone of Uncertainty to take into account the last one including I have pushed to put it as official guide related to estimations in my actual work place. The problem is not estimations. It is proven (including papers published by Microsoft) that you get always a real estimation in a point of time with the information you have. The problem is people never publish the estimations they got (ok, never say never...). Believe me, I worked a lot in this topic from years and I will say there is a lot of information outside there to survive with estimations.
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1 reply by Anish Abraham
Dec 17, 2017 10:39 AM
Anish Abraham
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Sergio, I hear you. In IT projects we can break the available schedule into three parts, one for design, implementation and testing. I think depending on the methodologies we use these will be called different things, but all methodologies have time dedicated to these three activities. After all schedules should be made with skepticism, not optimism.
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Dec 17, 2017 1:29 AM
Replying to Sante Vergini
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Weak estimates are ok sometimes, just look at Agile projects ;-)
Here I am @Sante (hehehehehe). Estimation method is totally independent of the life cycle method/process you use. Most of the Agile based method use something named "storie points". Storie points is the worst method in terms of estimations related the amount of uncertainty (something inherent into each estimation) you get because it depends a lot of previous experiences with similar product/service/result you are creating. Then, do you not have to use it? No. What you have to make is to adjust the results. There are some methods to adjusts the results linked to information available for other methods like function points.
Network:4075



Agree with Sergio. Good or bad estimate depends upon how much information is available at time of estimation and how team is confident.
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1 reply by Anish Abraham
Dec 17, 2017 10:47 AM
Anish Abraham
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Thanks Mansoor for your response.
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Sergio again hit the nail. It is important to understand that estimation is not one-time, it is ongoing process - The team needs to inspect and adapt. In case you have a constant team and a discipline to do it in small iterations by this the estimation's will evolve into something we can call "good estimate".
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1 reply by Anish Abraham
Dec 17, 2017 10:47 AM
Anish Abraham
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I agree on this, Peter
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Dec 17, 2017 6:26 AM
Replying to Sergio Luis Conte
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Not at all. Mainly because "good" is a subjective word. Definition of estimation: best guess based on available information and time. That´s all you have to take into account to estimate and to publish the results. I always use Barry Bohem´s Cone of Uncertainty to take into account the last one including I have pushed to put it as official guide related to estimations in my actual work place. The problem is not estimations. It is proven (including papers published by Microsoft) that you get always a real estimation in a point of time with the information you have. The problem is people never publish the estimations they got (ok, never say never...). Believe me, I worked a lot in this topic from years and I will say there is a lot of information outside there to survive with estimations.
Sergio, I hear you. In IT projects we can break the available schedule into three parts, one for design, implementation and testing. I think depending on the methodologies we use these will be called different things, but all methodologies have time dedicated to these three activities. After all schedules should be made with skepticism, not optimism.
...
1 reply by Sergio Luis Conte
Dec 17, 2017 2:42 PM
Sergio Luis Conte
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What you stated about divide the schedule in parts is equal to say we will have more information when we move forward into the project life cycle. Barry Bohem´s Cone of Uncertainty can show you it adding that Mr Bohem created it based on 10 years of research and statistics. Is the same I stated: estimation depends on information and time.
Network:1514



Dec 17, 2017 1:29 AM
Replying to Sante Vergini
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Weak estimates are ok sometimes, just look at Agile projects ;-)
Sante, thanks for your response. I agree that in Agile methods the future is always volatile, so they bet on processes that incorporate easy direction changes. But my understanding is that in projects that have high production costs they invest heavily in planning and designing activities.
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