Batting .500

 

What I have learned from the past is that predictions often fail. When you consider the low rate of success of "futurists," I would rather call myself a “past-ist.” In that vein let me review the predictions I made last year at this time and update my view of the forces that will affect the development of distributed applications in 2003.

Here is a summary what I predicted in 2002, followed by my evaluation of success.

Peer to peer software (P2P) will become the next frontier on the Internet.
Evaluation: Dead-On.

The Napsters of the world are disappearing, not due to lack of demand but because of copyright infringement issues. As soon as the corporate moguls figure out a business model that generates revenue and protects copyright, P2P software will boom. In the meantime the software is being pioneered by games makers. Online games are now a large consumer market. Collaborative game playing over the Internet requires a robust framework of software with the highest degree of sophistication. This is a growth market. It is interesting to observe that game playing is of ultimate benefit to IT. You can quote me on that the next time your manager catches you playing SIMCOUNTRY at your cube.

Convergence of software tools in the areas of EAI, BPM and UML Modeling Tools will continue.
Evaluation: Dead-On

The air is getting thin …

Please log in or sign up below to read the rest of the article.