Mixed Signals

  Estimating  

If you think that the phenomenon called RFID has become mystifying, you're not alone. The so-called "next big thing" in the hi-tech area is rattling an equal number of people in the supply-chain industry, IT industry, politics and privacy advocacy groups.

No sooner do you stop reading positive Radio Frequency Identification articles like IT market hears RFID message loud and clear when out comes news from the government sector that Senator Debra Bowen of California is seeking to balance in RFID Law. And, as if such news does not send enough conflicting signals, we have competing research companies that are putting out reports that paint either a very rosy picture or a very hazy picture.

Which Survey to Trust?
The scope and complexity of RFID implementation is such that there are different ways one could estimate the industry's size and growth. The global market intelligence and advisory firm IDCpredicts that RFID spending will swell to $1.3 billion by 2008 (from a paltry $91.5 million in 2003). It further predicts that hardware purchases will dominate expenditure, reaching $875 million, whereas the RFID-related services will grow to $270 by 2007.

In a calculation covered in our previous feature, Wal-Mart alone has the potential to create RFID related business of close to $2 billion. Compounding these figures is the $40 billion in …

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