Economy Turning Around? You're Joking!

Bob Weinstein is a journalist who covers technology, project management, the workplace and career development.

  Career Development   Manufacturing  

We've heard before that we're out of the woods. This time it's for real, say economists. The release of the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics bullish March payroll statistics was the clincher. Payroll employment jumped by 308,000 in several industries, the largest one-month gain in four years.

The big gain from the pathetic 21,000-job gain (all of which were government jobs) in February was due to an upward revision of prior employment numbers. "The government didn't have all the survey numbers when the February statistics were released," explains Mark Vitner, senior economist of Wachovia Corporation in Charlotte, N.C. "It explains why the third quarter of employment data, which still shows a net loss, was woefully underreported."

Even though the unemployment rate inched up a notch to 5.7 percent versus 5.6 percent in February, economists say the rise was insignificant. Changes in the unemployment rate traditionally lag other indicators. Unemployment is tracked by a household survey instead of company payrolls.

Expectedly, Bush administration officials were jubilant. Commerce Secretary Donald Evans said, "The president's tax relief efforts are furthering America's economic recovery."

Even with these gains, payrolls remain 323,000 below their level at the start of the recovery in November 2001, and 2 million…

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