Guessing is not a strategy: How to build decision velocity with AI and real-time data
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You Can't Predict The Future—Or Projects
David Schmaltz is a project manager in Takoma Park, Maryland.
Do all our tools and training really enable us to create predictive baseline projections?
A recent study published in the Journal of the American Planning Association notes that over the last century, public works projects have finished an average of 28% over budget, costing the public "hundreds of billions of dollars" in what the author calls cost overruns. Most interestingly, the study shows that results have not improved over the last century.The last century has seen the widest proliferation of project management tools and training in history. A hundred years ago, GANTT charts had not yet been developed! This study shows that the introduction of PERT/CPM techniques, and even the incorporation of Monte Carlo simulation into the planning process, has not improved our ability to predict well enough to increase either average on-budget or on-time performance.
The APA study suggests that these results are probably caused by deliberate "under estimation" and the subtle incentives for low bidding built into the contracting process. Fraud and deceit, it concludes, explains these alarming results. While incentives exist for contractors to low-ball bids, strong evidence suggests another, even more insidious cause. We are fooling ourselves when we believe that the tools we employ and the training we embrace will enable us to create predictive baseline projections…
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"The higher up you go, the more mistakes you are allowed. Right at the top, if you make enough of them, it's considered to be your style." - Fred Astaire |