Guessing is not a strategy: How to build decision velocity with AI and real-time data
June 10, 2026 | Live Webinar
Off The Shelf
Northrop Grumman Mission Systems analysts are using new modeling methods to better estimate schedule, cost and effort of projects that involve the integration of commercial-off-the-shelf hardware and software into existing systems.
Utilizing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) products, and the process of creating new systems through COTS integration, can be a risky yet unavoidable practice. But many of the problems associated with COTS integration can be attributed to poor initial program planning and tracking.
Northrop Grumman Mission Systems recently completed and delivered a transition project from a major legacy system to a new system based heavily on the integration of COTS hardware and software. After the project’s completion, a post-mortem analysis was performed and an estimate was generated for size, effort, schedule and cost using a parametric modeling tool. The results were reasonable (within 7 percent of the actuals), but Northrop Grumman engineers thought they could get closer.
They applied a new analysis method, deeply examining the COTS elements of the project and also utilizing the SEER-SEM quick-size function, which aids in estimating COTS integration. This method proved remarkably accurate, generating results within 2 percent of the actuals. The results demonstrated that COTS integration efforts can be accurately estimated; they also offer insights into …
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