Guessing is not a strategy: How to build decision velocity with AI and real-time data
June 10, 2026 | Live Webinar
Less Guts, More Glory?
Project managers, like most everyone else, make many decisions based on intuition and instinct. But on complex initiatives involving multiple objectives, uncertainties and stakeholders, those gut feelings can lead to biased decisionmaking that isn’t always in the best interest of the project. Instead, the authors of a new book recommend a structured decision analysis process based on psychology and mathematics.
Project managers should steer clear of making decisions based on gut feelings because the intrinsic psychological concepts that motivate that type of behavior can often lead to costly mistakes, according to the authors of the new book “Project Decisions: The Art and Science” (Management Concepts; 2008) Instead, they recommend following a defined decision analysis process that blends psychological and mathematical theories, which can help project managers avoid the common pitfalls that lead to poor choices.
“There is a lot of underlying science behind decision analysis that transfers readily over to the project management sector,” says Michael Trumper, co-author of the book. “The best way to ensure that you are making good, quality decisions is to have a strong process in place.”
Human thoughts tend to be biased, Trumper says, influenced by certain behaviors, perceptions and the ability to recall …
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