Project Management

Risk Realism

Known globally as The Risk Doctor, David has been working in risk management for about 30 years. He has worked in 48 countries on every continent except the Antarctic (too cold!), with clients in most industries.

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When it comes to risk management, pessimism and optimism have their roles, but it's best to aim for realism. Here are five steps.

 
The former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once said that “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” In fact, there is an interesting link between pessimism, optimism and risk management.
 
One result of pessimism is an undue focus on threats that could lead a project leader or team member to be risk-averse and overprotective, seeking to avoid or minimize negative outcomes wherever possible. On the other hand, optimism can produce an excessive concentration on opportunities, which could result in someone looking for the upside in every uncertainty, and taking on too much risk exposure.
 
Always being either pessimistic or optimistic will not help us to be fully effective in managing risk. If we only look for threats we will miss potential benefits. But an exclusive focus on opportunities will result in problems that could have been avoided. Instead, we need a proper balance between both perspectives, allowing tradeoffs between threats and opportunities, in order to give us the best possible chance of achieving our goals. In place of pessimism or optimism, we need to aim for risk realism.
 
A realistic view …

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