3 Methods for Better Estimates

John D’Entremont, PMP, is a program manager with over 15 years experience in training, managing training teams and designing materials to enhance the skills of managers and executives.

  ProjectsAtWork  

The upfront work you put into planning will impact project outcomes, but the effort will go for naught if it produces flawed forecasting. Here’s an overview of three time-tested methods that can improve schedule and cost estimates: precedence diagramming, three-point estimating and Monte Carlo analysis.

How much time do you commit to for planning and estimating at the beginning of your project? Depending on the complexity and scope of your project goals, you might benefit from giving this some thought and effort. There are a number of tools and techniques that can be used to this end, and we’re going to take a look at three and how you can use them to improve your project management planning estimates. For a more detailed explanation, I recommend A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide).

In order to get a general sense of the methods at your disposal, let’s take a look at the following methods of analysis and estimation:

• Precedence Diagramming Method
• Three-Point Estimating
• Monte Carlo Analysis

As you review these tools and methods, consider the following:

• How much time have you set aside for analysis?
• Do you have access to historical data that could lend itself to cost estimation?
• Has your organization employed any of these methods in previous projects? Is there a best practice database …

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