Risk, Innovation and Cobb’s Paradox

Known globally as The Risk Doctor, David has been working in risk management for about 30 years. He has worked in 48 countries on every continent except the Antarctic (too cold!), with clients in most industries.

  Innovation   Risk Management   ProjectsAtWork  

Starting with the expectation that all projects should succeed is misguided because it hinders risk-taking and creativity. True innovation is built first on failure. Still, risk management has an important role to play in every project.

When Martin Cobb was CIO for the Secretariat of the Treasury Board of Canada in 1995, he asked a question which has become known as Cobb’s Paradox: “We know why projects fail; we know how to prevent their failure — so why do they still fail?”

Speaking at a recent conference, the United Kingdom Government’s adviser on efficiency Sir Peter Gershon laid down a challenge to the project management profession: “Projects and programmes should be delivered within cost, on time, delivering the anticipated benefits.”

Taking up the Gershon Challenge, the U.K. Association for Project Management (APM) has defined its 2020 Vision as “A world in which all projects succeed.”

This sounds good, but is it really possible? And is it even desirable? Do we want to limit the scope and ambition of our projects to only those that we are certain can succeed? Or will this reduce innovation, creativity and appropriate risk-taking? A spectator at a recent Cirque de Soleil performance was heard to say: “I want to see them do things that they can only do half the time.” Isn’t this what …

Please log in or sign up below to read the rest of the article.