10 Tips for Better Estimates

Jerry Manas is the author of the best-sellers Napoleon on Project Management and Managing the Gray Areas, and a recognized thought leader in organizational project and resource management. His latest book is The Resource Management and Capacity Planning Handbook (September 2014). Jerry's work has been highlighted in a variety of publications, and he has appeared on radio programs nationwide.

  Estimating   Governance   ProjectsAtWork  

Bad project estimates cause costly delays, scope creep and inefficient resource allocation across programs and portfolios. Here are 10 ways to generate more accurate estimates throughout your organization, starting with a multi-phased approach and including top-down and bottom-up methods.

Poor project estimates are a killer in many organizations in both the short and long terms, causing delays, scope creep, profit loss, resource under- and over-utilization, and even employee stress and apathy. The culprit is often the process, which can be improved with the right methods and tools.

Here are 10 ways to facilitate more accurate project estimates in your organization.

1. Use a Multi-Phased Estimation Approach

Rarely does an organization have all the information needed to provide an accurate estimate before a project begins. There are typically at least three phases during a project lifecycle when a project estimate is needed, leading to progressively more accurate estimates as you reach each stage:

   > Project Request: A rough order-of-magnitude estimate given when a project is first requested. This is typically a top-down estimate based on expert opinion or comparison to other projects. Accuracy: Generally around +/- 50 percent, though the variability can be greater in projects with high uncertainty.

   > Business Case or Phase …

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