Topic Teasers Vol. 55: Adaptive Estimates

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  Estimating  

Management in my organization insists on treating estimates as firm promises, despite the risk we face on our projects. There is much tension between the project managers and the executives because our projects do not come in as originally stated, and we are not in an industry where a full agile methodology is appropriate. How do I keep them from constantly viewing me as a failure when I can’t pull golden, foolproof estimates out of my hat?

A. Calculate three estimates based on past experience and PERT charts, and plan schedules that will self-adjust when the metrics of the project trigger them. Add contingency and management reserves to the plan.

B. Refuse to give estimates to management, citing past failure to have them prove accurate and expressing your concern that you don’t want to disappoint upper-level executives again.

C. Explain to management that you can only calculate the estimates, but it is up to your team to deliver the expected metrics to meet them. If they are unhappy with project metrics outcomes, perhaps they should look at adding to the team or replacing the current members.

D. At best, estimates are only an educated guess based on past experience. Rather than calculating new numbers each time, average the latest five similar project outcome numbers and submit those figures as the estimates for the new work.

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