A Simple Proposal for Qualitative and Quantitative Risks Analyses Integration (Part 2)

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Chapter

Guilherme is a Production Engineer in Rio de Janeiro.

This as a continuation of my previous article. Here is a quick recap: Risk is important for projects, and we constantly suffer (at least I do!) from a disconnection between qualitative and quantitative analyses. I proposed a way to bridge this gap using the risk matrix and doing a simulation, offering some pros and cons—and observing that this can be done by someone other than the project team (which is inevitably subject to bias).

Now we continue with a practical example, using a small schedule for a mock plant adaptation. I will introduce the schedule, talk about the risk register and run a Monte Carlo simulation—where the qualitative risks play a major part.

Project A: Our Schedule Is Here
Our project has four stages:

  1. Engineering
  2. Procurement
  3. Construction and Installation
  4. Commissioning

We used some pretty standard references for the procurement cycle (I’m no expert on this type of project, so excuse me if the durations or risks are a little off). Our goal here is to have a sample schedule to test our integration. On the engineering side, we have already finished some part of it and are currently detailing the alternative. This stage will take approximately one year, and the project will follow internal approval for execution.

The picture below illustrates the schedule. I’m using a standard project calendar (i.e., weekdays are…

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