I have a question on what is the significance of using Fibonacci numbers in agile estimation? Appreciate your inputs. Thank you! Saving Changes...
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Sergio Luis ConteHelping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based OrganizationsBuenos Aires, Argentina
No more than assign numbers to user stories/use cases or anything you used to get wishes/desires/wants/etc from stakeholders that must be converted into requirements. The only thing those numbers mean is "how much it takes making those dreams comes true". No more than that. Inside "how much it takes" is all related to do that. But do not fall into the trap thinking that if you asign a 2 it does mean hours, or needed resources, or cost or something like that. Saving Changes...
The use of a non-linear sequence such as modified Fibonacci is two fold:
1. It recognizes that complexity and effort do not scale linearly. For example, the hardest task you might perform might take many orders of magnitude more effort than the simplest task.
2. It simplifies the decision making process. With linear sequences, an individual or team can get into analysis-paralysis whereas with the big gaps at the higher ends of the typical modified Fibonacci sequence, it becomes a fairly quick discussion on which bucket to drop a given work item into.
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Kiron put that in a great way, fully agree with him. Saving Changes...
Logan BergerPresident| Berger Consulting LLCSeattle, Wa, United States
The Fibonacci series is just one example of an exponential estimation scale. The reason an exponential scale is used comes from Information Theory.
The information that we obtain out of estimation grows much slower than the precision of estimation. In fact it grows as a logarithmic function. This is the reason for the higher uncertainty for larger items. Saving Changes...
It supports sizing of stories in (fast and easy, pragmatic) relative team estimation. It does have a relative story sizing meaning, nothing more. Sergio and Kiron made the important points. Saving Changes...
Periasamy, Are you trying to predict patterns? like triangle or support and resistance I don't see much real use of this in project management even if you are trying to calculate population for statistic the more deep you can go with Fibonacci Retracement and extensions, you know the golden ratio 1.618 then you have maximum pullback zone retacement is 0.618 and you still have other ratio to watch 0.50 and 0.382. It is more for technical analysis for chartist.
I would welcome Kiron or Sergio to provide real example where Fibonacci applied Saving Changes...
The main benefit of the Fibonacci scale is that enough separation exists between the numbers to prevent the team from squabbling over slight differences. For example, if the scale was 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, team members might debate whether a feature was a 7 or an 8. It’s easier for team members to reach agreement if the scale jumps from 5 to 8.
Fibonacci numbers are simple, easily understood, and provide enough accuracy to get us to the goal that is providing relative estimates. Saving Changes...
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