Project Management

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What role will be predominant in 2030?

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Stelian ROMAN Project Manager| MicroSafety Carlingford, New South Wales, Australia
In recent years some organisations took the decision to replace Project Managers with Scrum Masters. Then the Scrum Master is more and more asked to take responsibilities that were done by PMs, like budgeting, reporting, procurement, risk management and even planning.
In theory how long there are projects there will be a need to manage budget/scope/time therefore it is expected that, at least in projects that don't have an IT component, the PM role will 'survive'.
Another recent trend is the resurrection of Lean, organisations looking at cost/benefit rather than just agility.

Which role do you think that will be predominat in 2030?
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Stelian ROMAN Project Manager| MicroSafety Carlingford, New South Wales, Australia
Mar 19, 2019 9:16 AM
Replying to Wade Harshman
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I don't see project management going away. I don't see Scrum or Lean going away, either.

Actually, I enjoy reading older books from the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, and I've noticed that many of the business and process related problems we continue to deal with today were solved decades ago. With that perspective, I'm not sure anything will be different in 2030. I suspect many organizations will still be struggling with the same basic issues they have today, but hiding it under new buzzwords.
Thank you Wade. I don't see the PM going away either, nor Lean but I have doubts that the Scrum Master role will survive. I started my formal Agile experience using XP in 2001. Now XP as a framework is almost extinct, although some concepts (like user story and story points) survived. In my opinion the decline of XP was caused by the fact that it was ahead of time. Also, unlike Scrum it was complex, too disruptive and software oriented.
I also enjoy reading books and articles from 70s and how they addressed the technology transformations. I have a couple of webinars on the history of the Agile Enterprise, I will be very interested in your feedback.
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1 reply by Wade Harshman
Mar 19, 2019 4:15 PM
Wade Harshman
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I don't see the scrum framework going away anytime soon, because it's simple, popular, and easy to combine with other practices. I'm sure it will continue to adapt, though.. Back in 2010, I could not have predicted where I'd be today, so there's no way I could predict what will happen in the next decade. Perhaps Scrum will evolve into something else entirely, or morph into something we don't recognize today.

XP is still popular in theory, but in my limited experience I have not witnessed many organizations bold enough to adopt it. I'm always curious to hear from anyone who's been in a committed XP shop, if you have stories to share.
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Stelian ROMAN Project Manager| MicroSafety Carlingford, New South Wales, Australia
Mar 19, 2019 10:13 AM
Replying to Bharatkumar Unercat
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Old wine in New bottle
Not really. The role are different. The people are different.
In the 'old days' the path to a manager role, PM included, took roughly 10 years with hands on experience in the whole product life cycle. I know many PMs from my generation that were Development Managers before moving to project management. That experience gave a lot of useful skills and knowledge.
Nowadays, same in the DotCom boom, the market needs many PMs/SMs annd there is no time to acquire skills and knowledge. Many learn on the job, many don't.
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Stelian ROMAN Project Manager| MicroSafety Carlingford, New South Wales, Australia
Mar 19, 2019 10:24 AM
Replying to Tiago Romao
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Project manager will be the role more predominant. Scrum masters fit well in IT, software development, specially mobile software development. Lean a mindset to decrease waste, goes hand by hand with Agile.

PMs are individuals who will never stop adapting and learning new ways and techniques to deliver what is expected from them.

Scrum, Lean, Agile, should be on every PM toolbox.
Thank you Tiago. I Agree with you. Lean is already in the PM books and Agile is also coming strong (see the Agile Guide).
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Stelian ROMAN Project Manager| MicroSafety Carlingford, New South Wales, Australia
Mar 19, 2019 11:53 AM
Replying to Steve Ratkaj
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It is almost impossible to predict the future, but I'm positive AI will have a dominant role in project management as systems become more and more complex and intertwined. There is no reason AI couldn't play a larger role right now, but that requires a transformational shift from today's traditionalist approach to PM.
Thank you Steve. For my generation is not that hard :)
It is a cycle. I used many Agile practices in mid 80's and then when we scale up and left the Business and the software development become part of the IT department we felt the need for a more structured approach. Many Tem Leads and Development Managers become PMs, managing not only the deign and development but also budgets, procurement etc.
I don't share your optimistic view on AI. AI is not new, I had AI projects in mid 80s and there was a dream that by the year 2000 everything will be automated. AI can't handle many challenges that a PM faces like organisation culture. Creativity will remain for long time human.
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1 reply by Steve Ratkaj
Mar 20, 2019 11:26 AM
Steve Ratkaj
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I see AI taking some of the "guesswork" out of PM when it comes to budget, scope, schedule, and risk "estimates". Why are most large construction projects over budget and behind schedule? "We" always seem to be surprised when such events occur. Using AI, and harvesting data from similar type projects, much more realistic estimates could be made, because by nature, human beings always tend to be optimistic. There would be no such issue when using AI.
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Stelian ROMAN Project Manager| MicroSafety Carlingford, New South Wales, Australia
Mar 19, 2019 1:16 PM
Replying to Andrew Mitchell
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The pendulum is definitely swinging toward Agile Frameworks such as Lean, Scrum and Kanban. Like any pendulum, I think it is already started to swing to far in that direction. Everyone it seems is going through an Agile Transformation. Agile is not going away, but there will be failures and the pendulum will swing back. The core set of Project Management skills will not go away but, in fact, be even more in demand. So I believe Project Manager will still be the predominant role in 2030.
Thank you Andrew. Interesting comment. I agree with the pendulum going towards Agile but slower than 5 years ago and it will swing back to Lean. Lean and kanban are not Agile frameworks, kanban is part of Lean Six Sigma (one discipline at the publication of the AM) and was already a mature technique when the first Scrum paper was published.
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Wade Harshman Scrum Master| GDIT Indianapolis, In, United States
Mar 19, 2019 3:46 PM
Replying to Stelian ROMAN
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Thank you Wade. I don't see the PM going away either, nor Lean but I have doubts that the Scrum Master role will survive. I started my formal Agile experience using XP in 2001. Now XP as a framework is almost extinct, although some concepts (like user story and story points) survived. In my opinion the decline of XP was caused by the fact that it was ahead of time. Also, unlike Scrum it was complex, too disruptive and software oriented.
I also enjoy reading books and articles from 70s and how they addressed the technology transformations. I have a couple of webinars on the history of the Agile Enterprise, I will be very interested in your feedback.
I don't see the scrum framework going away anytime soon, because it's simple, popular, and easy to combine with other practices. I'm sure it will continue to adapt, though.. Back in 2010, I could not have predicted where I'd be today, so there's no way I could predict what will happen in the next decade. Perhaps Scrum will evolve into something else entirely, or morph into something we don't recognize today.

XP is still popular in theory, but in my limited experience I have not witnessed many organizations bold enough to adopt it. I'm always curious to hear from anyone who's been in a committed XP shop, if you have stories to share.
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2 replies by Stelian ROMAN
Mar 20, 2019 3:41 PM
Stelian ROMAN
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XP was as popular as Scrum in the software community in early 2000s. Many practices and concepts survived within Scrum. I agree that Scrum is simple and there is a huge certification industry that will support his survival but there are already signs of decline.
The main reason is that some teams pretend to do Scrum and when they fail the framework gets a bad reputation. Another reason for decline is that people have unrealistic expectations, like you can start without a vision, without understanding what you want to achieve. The Scrum and Agile are not imposing details but you still need a visionary (the PO) to succeed.
Mar 20, 2019 3:57 PM
Stelian ROMAN
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We implemented XP, almost by the book, in 2002. I was only an analyst/programmer at the time because as a new migrant I was advised that for managerial roles you have to wait. As an observer, with many years as a a dev manager, i believe that I can understand why that company went back to planned approach. The main reason, that will also impact Scrum, was lack of focus on efficiency. We did a lot of prototypes, sometimes without any use for the product, just because it was fun and interesting. We tried to build the tests (nunit) before the actual code but testing is an overhead, it is not reflected in the actual product and at some point the owner of the company asked us to focus on the functionality.
If you want to know more about XP I strongly recommend Ron Jeffries' site https://ronjeffries.com/. He is one of the XP authors, and a practitioner.
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Andrew Mitchell Scrum Master and Agile Coach| na Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
Mar 19, 2019 1:16 PM
Replying to Andrew Mitchell
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The pendulum is definitely swinging toward Agile Frameworks such as Lean, Scrum and Kanban. Like any pendulum, I think it is already started to swing to far in that direction. Everyone it seems is going through an Agile Transformation. Agile is not going away, but there will be failures and the pendulum will swing back. The core set of Project Management skills will not go away but, in fact, be even more in demand. So I believe Project Manager will still be the predominant role in 2030.
I believe the pendulum will swing back to more traditional Project Managers. There will also be a need for someone to manage the Iron Triangle of Scope, Cost and Time.
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Steve Ratkaj Ontario, Canada
Mar 19, 2019 3:58 PM
Replying to Stelian ROMAN
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Thank you Steve. For my generation is not that hard :)
It is a cycle. I used many Agile practices in mid 80's and then when we scale up and left the Business and the software development become part of the IT department we felt the need for a more structured approach. Many Tem Leads and Development Managers become PMs, managing not only the deign and development but also budgets, procurement etc.
I don't share your optimistic view on AI. AI is not new, I had AI projects in mid 80s and there was a dream that by the year 2000 everything will be automated. AI can't handle many challenges that a PM faces like organisation culture. Creativity will remain for long time human.
I see AI taking some of the "guesswork" out of PM when it comes to budget, scope, schedule, and risk "estimates". Why are most large construction projects over budget and behind schedule? "We" always seem to be surprised when such events occur. Using AI, and harvesting data from similar type projects, much more realistic estimates could be made, because by nature, human beings always tend to be optimistic. There would be no such issue when using AI.
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1 reply by Stelian ROMAN
Mar 20, 2019 4:17 PM
Stelian ROMAN
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In principle I agree with you but... the reality is much harder. Perhaps this is the rot cause of (construction) projects going over budget and schedule. The scope changes and even if the scope doesn't change the environment will pose unforeseen challenges.
reality can't be modelled, at least in our lifetime. Look at the autocomplete AI in gmail. It 'learns' from us but it works only for very simple statements and most of the time instead of helping it'a waste of time.
I built a construction estimation software and I have pretty good experience with project estimation using Function Points, probably the most reliable technique.
In principle I agree with "harvesting data from similar type projects, much more realistic estimates could be made" but speaking of reality, I am looking for many years for reliable data on Agile projects. For traditional ones there are few good repositories but there I couldn't find anything for Agile. One reason is that there are no consistent metrics.
"human beings always tend to be optimistic.", yes, that's true, especially for 'developers'. Their estimation is always 60-70% less than the effort required to complete the project. That's where a skilled and experienced PM adds value. There are many (real) risks that can't be mentioned in the risk register because of their political sensitivity. One, from my experience. that tops the list, is the Sponsor's commitment to fail the project. For political or personal reasons some projects start without any support from the Sponsor (PO).
"AI won't pick this." AI will model the probable outcome based on an ideal world. It can't model (yet) human creativity, good or bad, which is an important factor in determining the success of a project.
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Mayte Mata Sivera PMO Leader | Speaker | Author Ut, United States
From my point of view Project manager will be the role more predominant, however more and more BA's will become a BA+Scrum Master
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1 reply by Stelian ROMAN
Mar 20, 2019 4:01 PM
Stelian ROMAN
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Thank you. I agree that BA is a good option for Scrum Master, especially for (real) projects. Apart from the good facilitation skills, it has the best understanding of the product from the business point of view and can help the PO in managing the backlog.
That's one reason for recommending that PMs, where possible, combine the role with the SM within the Scrum team. Most PMs have BA experience, defining requirements, facilitating workshops etc.
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Stelian ROMAN Project Manager| MicroSafety Carlingford, New South Wales, Australia
Mar 19, 2019 4:15 PM
Replying to Wade Harshman
...
I don't see the scrum framework going away anytime soon, because it's simple, popular, and easy to combine with other practices. I'm sure it will continue to adapt, though.. Back in 2010, I could not have predicted where I'd be today, so there's no way I could predict what will happen in the next decade. Perhaps Scrum will evolve into something else entirely, or morph into something we don't recognize today.

XP is still popular in theory, but in my limited experience I have not witnessed many organizations bold enough to adopt it. I'm always curious to hear from anyone who's been in a committed XP shop, if you have stories to share.
XP was as popular as Scrum in the software community in early 2000s. Many practices and concepts survived within Scrum. I agree that Scrum is simple and there is a huge certification industry that will support his survival but there are already signs of decline.
The main reason is that some teams pretend to do Scrum and when they fail the framework gets a bad reputation. Another reason for decline is that people have unrealistic expectations, like you can start without a vision, without understanding what you want to achieve. The Scrum and Agile are not imposing details but you still need a visionary (the PO) to succeed.
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