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Do we really need predictability in Agile and Digital world?

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Gaurav Dhooper Assistant Vice President| Genpact Noida, U.P., India
Since the focus of Agile projects is more on adaptability, does predictability play any role especially when the disruptive digital technologies like Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning are gaining wider acceptance due to their learning capability for making better predictions and decisions.
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Stéphane Parent Self Employed / Semi-retired| Leader Maker Prince Edward Island, Canada
AI and machine learning can only predict or decide based on the provided data. If you give them little or no data, don't expect AI and machine learning to fill the gap. (The opposite is also a problem: too much data can exacerbate known biases.)

Agile projects usually mean we start with very little data, therefore we do the minimum amount of prediction and decisions.

Prediction in an agile project is like a sailboat that constantly corrects course as it unfurls more sails and tacks into the wind.
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1 reply by Gaurav Dhooper
Jul 12, 2019 10:41 AM
Gaurav Dhooper
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Well said Stephane. Completely agree with your viewpoint. Thanks for providing the insight.
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Gaurav Dhooper Assistant Vice President| Genpact Noida, U.P., India
Jul 12, 2019 9:53 AM
Replying to Stéphane Parent
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AI and machine learning can only predict or decide based on the provided data. If you give them little or no data, don't expect AI and machine learning to fill the gap. (The opposite is also a problem: too much data can exacerbate known biases.)

Agile projects usually mean we start with very little data, therefore we do the minimum amount of prediction and decisions.

Prediction in an agile project is like a sailboat that constantly corrects course as it unfurls more sails and tacks into the wind.
Well said Stephane. Completely agree with your viewpoint. Thanks for providing the insight.
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Wade Harshman Scrum Master| GDIT Indianapolis, In, United States
Does predictability play any role? Yes. Few organizations are going to fund a new product or service without some initial analysis. But while there is value in predictability (following a plan), there is more value in adaptability (responding to change).
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Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
Agile teams operate based on empirical data so an AI might be able to provide confidence ranges for decisions they might need to take based on a vast range of past projects and similar scenarios.
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Sergio Luis Conte Helping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based Organizations Buenos Aires, Argentina
Agile is not about predictability. Here comes the definitions that were created in the place where Agile was born in 1990:
Agile
A way of thought and behave whose focus is the increase of value for the client and the quality
agility
Be able respond to a wide variety
of unexpected external surprises and
create external surprises.
Being agile will assist businesses who
face unpredictable circumstances.
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Gaurav Dhooper Assistant Vice President| Genpact Noida, U.P., India
Thank you Wade, Kiron and Sergio for providing your valuable and interesting feedback. This aligns with my viewpoint.
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Eric Isom Owner| learn.pmguaranteed.com Ut, United States
1) Agile is predictable in that it will provide value frequently, rather than waiting to the end of the project.

2) Agile shouldn't be used as an excuse for poor planning. You can still have a solid business case, high level requirements, a fixed budget, requirements definition, well-defined scope of work, etc., and still implement the project using an Agile approach. It doesn't mean you start without a good plan, it just means that you value change over following the plan. You embrace change. You don't start off without a clear idea of where you're headed. You may change your mind about how to get there, or even adjust the final destination somewhat, but you don't just head off not knowing where you're going.

And the whole notion of story points and velocity is about being able to not only improve performance, but forecast cost and schedule to complete the project.
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1 reply by Gaurav Dhooper
Jul 13, 2019 12:56 AM
Gaurav Dhooper
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Good feedback Eric. It is really wonderful to capture view points from esteemed practitioners
Thanks.
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Gaurav Dhooper Assistant Vice President| Genpact Noida, U.P., India
Jul 13, 2019 12:50 AM
Replying to Eric Isom
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1) Agile is predictable in that it will provide value frequently, rather than waiting to the end of the project.

2) Agile shouldn't be used as an excuse for poor planning. You can still have a solid business case, high level requirements, a fixed budget, requirements definition, well-defined scope of work, etc., and still implement the project using an Agile approach. It doesn't mean you start without a good plan, it just means that you value change over following the plan. You embrace change. You don't start off without a clear idea of where you're headed. You may change your mind about how to get there, or even adjust the final destination somewhat, but you don't just head off not knowing where you're going.

And the whole notion of story points and velocity is about being able to not only improve performance, but forecast cost and schedule to complete the project.
Good feedback Eric. It is really wonderful to capture view points from esteemed practitioners
Thanks.
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Daire Guiney Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Artificial Intelligence and Machine learning have been around for decades as a research topic. It just as computers capacity has increased, thanks to Moore's Law, and the amount of data generated on daily basis has increased immeasurable that these two areas of research have been combined to see if any sense can be made from big data. Repetitive tasks in projects can be automated to reduce workload but being able to remove all doubt, risk and uncertainty in a project is a near impossible task so the best approach is remain open to these possibilities and implement a methodology that is agile in nature and flexible in approach.
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Gaurav Dhooper Assistant Vice President| Genpact Noida, U.P., India
Well said Daire. I second you on this. Thanks for your feedback.

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