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Calculating EAC realtime scenarios

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Vinay Kumar KOLAGANI Manager SAP| Capgemini Consulting Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
Can any one quote REAL TIME application of these formulas (Possibly from IT / ITES sector):

1. EAC = BAC / CPI
2. EAC = AC+Bottom Up ETC
3. EAC = AC+(BAC-EV)
4. EAC = AC+[(BAC-EV)/(CPI-SPI)]

Regards
Vinay
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Paul Azanor Project Consultant| Lagos Nigeria Ikoyi, Lagos, Nigeria
For Real Time application:
EVM forcasting tools for project progress reporting

Assumptions: You have the following already done.
1. WBS has been used to capture ALL the project scope of work with control accounts identified.
2.Budget (BAC) is spread out or TIME PHASED using excel sheet in accordance with project schedule and funding requirement.

3.In the same excel sheet there is a row each for PV and PV (cumulative)
4.Next row directly below there is a row each for EV and EV (cumulative)
5.Next row directly below there is a row each for AC and AC (cumulative)

Once all that is set up and prior to project start, the PV and PV (cumulative ) row is updated over the period of time till project completion date. Note the cumulative PV will be equal to BAC for the last entry.

Once project commence, request for the actual cost and begin to update EV & EV(cumulative),with AC and AC (cumulative)

These are the details required to forecast cost using these formulars depending on the present circumstances. For any period under review you can determine the CPI and SPI to see how project is performing.

Case 1: Applies for use to forecast EAC when CPI is constant
Case 2: Applies when original budget is flawed and a new estimate to complete is required. This is where WBS comes in handy.
Case 3: Applies assuming work remaining will be completed at the original budget rate
Case 4: Applies when CPI and SPI are relevant and will weigh in to give final project outcome
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1 reply by Vinay Kumar KOLAGANI
Jul 19, 2019 10:05 AM
Vinay Kumar KOLAGANI
...
Thanks Paul for your instant reply :)
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Vinay Kumar KOLAGANI Manager SAP| Capgemini Consulting Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
Jul 19, 2019 9:05 AM
Replying to Paul Azanor
...
For Real Time application:
EVM forcasting tools for project progress reporting

Assumptions: You have the following already done.
1. WBS has been used to capture ALL the project scope of work with control accounts identified.
2.Budget (BAC) is spread out or TIME PHASED using excel sheet in accordance with project schedule and funding requirement.

3.In the same excel sheet there is a row each for PV and PV (cumulative)
4.Next row directly below there is a row each for EV and EV (cumulative)
5.Next row directly below there is a row each for AC and AC (cumulative)

Once all that is set up and prior to project start, the PV and PV (cumulative ) row is updated over the period of time till project completion date. Note the cumulative PV will be equal to BAC for the last entry.

Once project commence, request for the actual cost and begin to update EV & EV(cumulative),with AC and AC (cumulative)

These are the details required to forecast cost using these formulars depending on the present circumstances. For any period under review you can determine the CPI and SPI to see how project is performing.

Case 1: Applies for use to forecast EAC when CPI is constant
Case 2: Applies when original budget is flawed and a new estimate to complete is required. This is where WBS comes in handy.
Case 3: Applies assuming work remaining will be completed at the original budget rate
Case 4: Applies when CPI and SPI are relevant and will weigh in to give final project outcome
Thanks Paul for your instant reply :)
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Stéphane Parent Self Employed / Semi-retired| Leader Maker Prince Edward Island, Canada
Very good Paul! I remember how it took me a while to master which EAC formula to use under which circumstances.
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Keith Novak Tukwila, Wa, United States
I would be a bit cautious about providing "real time" EVM metrics. PV is easy since it only changes when the plan changes, and AC can be easy if people are charging their time in a system that allows accrual of labor charged in real time.

Real time EV is where people "game the numbers". I've worked on projects where teams that I knew were encountering all sorts of problems and well off their plan were always coming in with SPI of 1.000. That raises a red flag. They were not perfectly on schedule. They just created a spreadsheet to calculate what they should input into the EVM system to show they were perfectly on schedule. People started ignoring the metrics, because it was obvious what was occurring.

What works better is updating EV based on closure of discrete tasks. It is not strictly real time, but there is something behind the numbers to justify where they came from, other than a bit of Excel trickery. If the tasks are planned at the appropriate level of detail, it's close enough.
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Steve Ratkaj Ontario, Canada
Agree with Keith. We've been "fooled" a many time with EVM reports. For us "real time" is not possible nor required. For us at least, what is important is recognizing trends. When accountants figure, figures lie. :)
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Paul Azanor Project Consultant| Lagos Nigeria Ikoyi, Lagos, Nigeria
@Keith,Valid point. I have seen an S curve being reported, and on critical observation i saw that the the performance was tracking very closely the planned, despite the delays and challenges at the time of reporting.

So again i will say alot depends on the EVM procedure or policy of the organization.If there is none in place then that will be a root cause.
Project auditing during monitoring & controlling is essential to ensure credible reporting of project performance.

Normally the EVM policy or procedure may state that once an activity is started EV can be taken as either 20% of BAC or 50%of BAC for that particular activity then at completion the other 80% or 50% of BAC can be assigned.
Anything contrary will be a non-conformance.
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Sergio Luis Conte Helping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based Organizations Buenos Aires, Argentina
We have an excel spreadsheet with those calculations where the most valuable are the formulas than help to predict a possible future state from actual state.
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Mario Coquillat Project, Program and Portfolio consultant, mentor and trainer| CoquillatPM San Pedro Del Pinatar, Murcia, Spain
When EAC is defined you must distinguish between IEAC (Independent Estimation at Completion) and EAC (Estimation at Completion).

a) IEAC are calculated values:

IEAC= BAC/CPI
IEAC= AC+BAC-EV
IEAC= AC+((BAC-EV)/(CPIxSPI))

b) EAC is a project manager´s estimated value (together with the project team)

EAC= AC + Bottom-up ETC

The statistical approach utilizes EVM data to project an EAC and is often called an independent EAC (IEAC) because it is independent of any project or environmental conditions. It is merely a projection of the future project outcome based on past data.

The use of IEAC independent calculations is a good validation of the project EAC; however it should not be substituted as the formal EAC for the project. So, it´s clear we need always an EAC and we should use an IEAC to support estimation. This is the way how it works in the market.
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Mario Coquillat Project, Program and Portfolio consultant, mentor and trainer| CoquillatPM San Pedro Del Pinatar, Murcia, Spain
About real time, people usually updated in a monthly basis, because it´s when you have the final AC obtained by financial department.

As somebody explains, you must me careful about how to measure EV. It must be consistent with AC and PV.

Regards
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Vinay Kumar KOLAGANI Manager SAP| Capgemini Consulting Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
Thanks for your inputs on this...Would you be able to share that excel template. May be that can help me to customise as per my need...Thanks in advance
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