Julia BragaPMO Manager| The iQ Group GlobalNorth Curl Curl, Nsw, Australia
Hello, I am hoping to get some ideas from the group. I was wondering what are the standards for calculating project status based on schedule only? I am not tracking budget or costs. This is for a simple project. Someone recommended: Expected progress / % Complete (or some variation of it). For example, is a project is 80% complete but should be 90%, we would compute 90/80 = 1.125. Status can then be determined as Off Track where: On Track = 0 - .7; At Risk = 7. – 1; Off Track 1. Any comments/thoughts?
Julia BragaPMO Manager| The iQ Group GlobalNorth Curl Curl, Nsw, Australia
Jul 25, 2019 9:03 AM
Replying to Wade Harshman
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Julia,
I understand the scenario you're describing. Your method will work, as long as you are transparent about it. The people you're reporting to need to understand the numbers you're giving them. It may be a simple metric, but it's still better than a subjective, color-coded project status.
Similar to EVM, though, you need to dig deeper as a project manager and find the facts hidden by the numbers. Numbers are indicators, they don't tell the whole story. For example, your schedule may appear behind, but if that's not part of the critical path, then your real situation might be better than the numbers make it sound. As another example, you may have a team member who is 2 days behind, but that person might have new priorities and won't get back to your project for a week. In that scenario, the real situation is worse than the numbers indicate.
Than you Wade. This is just a simple calculation to start with as we are not taking budget or costs into consideration. We are just trying to define parameters for the traffic lights (green, amber, red) on our PM software only based on work complete.
Kind Regards,
Julia Saving Changes...
Julia BragaPMO Manager| The iQ Group GlobalNorth Curl Curl, Nsw, Australia
Jul 25, 2019 3:08 AM
Replying to RAJON BANERJEE
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There are a lot of calculative formulas for EVM, just like given in below: CP = EV - AC CPI = EV/AC SV = EV - PV SPI = EV/PV EAC = 1) EAC = AC + Bottom-up ETC 2) EAC =BAC/Cumulative CPI 3) EAC = AC + (BAC - EV) 4) EAC = AC + [BAC - EV / (Cumulative CPI x Cumulative SPI)] TCPI = (BAC – EV) / (BAC – AC). VAC = BAC - EAC
For Schedule: Straight Average = ( P + M+ O) / 3 Beta Average = ( P + 4M+ O) / 6
The best formulas I have come across for schedule progress is that it shows a Green light when the project is on schedule, yellow when between 0% and 10% of the baseline duration overrun relative to the baseline finish date. Red when more than 10% of the baseline duration late. The beauty of this way of working is twofold:
- Applies equally fair to short and long projects
- You are typically forgiven (in many organizations) for an overrun of up to 10%
In Microsoft Project, this formula could look like this:
The output of this formula is:
100000 if there is no baseline
the percentage of overrun relative to the baseline duration in any other situation (even when the baseline duration = 0 for milestones)
If you set Graphical Indicators on the thresholds you want to use (0% - 10% or any other thresholds), you have your schedule indicator with traffic lights.
Hope this helps. Saving Changes...
Khai Ng.IT PMO | IT Project Manager| TTGROUPHanoi, Viet Nam
Assuming you are managing knowledge project then it is incorrect when calculating project status just based on schedule only. You know Microsoft Project comes with task field '%Completion' and it is calculated based on task duration using formula %Completion=(Actual Duration/Duration)*100, and of course in most cases, for knowledge works, it does not reflect the true status. If you are not tracking budget or costs, you should use another metric that can be used to estimate, track and apply EVM for your calculation.
For the range, you can choose any range based on the level of tolerance that your company accepts; the variance may be +-10 to 20%; It is depended on the type and criticality of the project. The control limits must be agreed and approved by company leader. Saving Changes...
Mark BilyeuProject manager | Edward J. Rice Co.Mo, United States
Jul 25, 2019 6:25 PM
Replying to Julia Braga
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Hi Mark,
Thank you for your reply. Maybe I didn't ask the question correctly. I am just trying to define parameters for the traffic lights (on track, at risk, off track) on our project management software.
It would be something as simple as completed work/planned work and determining what range is acceptable for on track, at risk, off track. We can pick any range we want but I was reaching out to see what other PMs use.
It's a simple concept as we are not taking budget or costs into consideration.
Thank you,
julia
I get what your saying now. I don't have a book answer for the way I lay out the traffic light parameters. I based mine off the type of deliverable (is this a new product or a repeat of a similar product), the skills of the people doing the actual build (we have several junior mechanical and controls folks), and resource availability (this is the big driver-often I don't get enough people until close to the end of the project or phase).
I came up with "green" or on track as 5% behind schedule and higher, "yellow" at risk as 5% to 25% behind schedule, and anything greater than 25% behind schedule as "Red". The percentages are based simply on actual hours completed to planned hours for the schedule. It seems kind of simplistic and ad hoc, but it works for me and the projects I'm assigned to at the moment. Saving Changes...
I think your solution is reasonable, not perfect but given the information you have.
Your tolerance seems to be 0.3. Do you do it for the entire project of for various parts? Using smaller parts would give you an indication of the trouble area.
You could also have more level red, orrange, yellow and green Saving Changes...
Eric IsomOwner| learn.pmguaranteed.comUt, United States
Use Earned Schedule. It's not hard, and it does exactly what you're asking for.
Earned Schedule (ES) is a measure of how much you've completed so far compared to the plan. For example, if you had planned to complete 10 widgets per day, and after 5 days you've only completed 40 widgets, then you've only completed 4 days worth of work.
ES = 4 days
AT (actual time) = 5 days
Schedule Variance, SV = ES - AT = 4 - 5 = -1 days
This makes intuitive sense. You're 1 day behind. SV = -1 day.
Then there's the Schedule Performance Index, SPI = ES / AT = 4/5 = 80%.
Again, this makes intuitive sense. You've done 80% of what you'd planned to do by now.
SV 1 is bad. SPI 100% is bad.
SV 1 is good. SPI 100% is good.
These also make sense. And they're easy to calculate, and to communicate to key stakeholders.
And they will work all the way through the project, whereas the traditional EVM measures for schedule variance and performance have a mathematical loophole that makes them useless once a project goes past its planned end date.
