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When considering the difference between waterfall and agile, does the methodology of a project impact the length of the project?

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Grant Hamel Mr RTE Agile Passionate| The Coventry Building Society Banbury, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom
As agile is iterative and meant to assist to accelerate the delivery of a project, especially with accelerated outputs is it deemed as a more rapid delivery process? And does this then impact the length of the project? We have had the age old debate, waterfall or agile and often it is a hybrid of the two (if there is such a thing?). Perhaps the real question is that when estimating the length of a project, (and naturally the nature of the project determines the methodology), does the methodology impact this?
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Sergio Luis Conte Helping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based Organizations Buenos Aires, Argentina
Agile is not interactive. That´s the point of confusion in most of the people outside there (I am not saying that you). Agile is an approach totally independent of the life cycle you use. In fact, you can use Agile with waterfall without problem (I am write this because I experienced it in practice and you can find examples outside there). Compring agile with waterfall is a big mistake. Agile is an approach, like Lean. Waterfall is a life cycle process based on predictive life cycle model. In fact, Lean and Agile are totally different things including Agile was born as an alternative of Lean. So, beyond what I can write here, you can take a look to Tom Gilb work EVO or others outside there like Mary and Tom Poppendiek implementation of Lean in software creation.
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Wade Harshman Scrum Master| GDIT Indianapolis, In, United States
Sergio beat me to it. Agility has more to do with organizational culture than with project management. We're focused on PM here so we sometimes forget there's more to it than what lies in our realm. But this is the reason I can't embrace the talk of "Hybrid" agility. You're either agile or you aren't. Perhaps it would be more appropriate to say you're either becoming more agile or you aren't.

Sorry to get hung up on words.

Back to the topic, I don't think there's a mathematical reason why an iterative life cycle project would always be be faster or slower than a predictive life cycle project. Like many things, it depends on context. If you are repeating a similar project plan repeatedly, then there may be value in the predictive (i.e. "waterfall") approach. You can quickly queue up the people and resources you need and start, and you won't need to stop until you're complete.

On the other hand, if your project is new, complex, and has a great deal of unknowns, then you'll probably have an advantage with an iterative life cycle within an agile culture. This is because you can establish an empowered team to collaborate with your customers and/or users and answer important questions over the life of the project. A similar team using a predictive approach will still be in the planning stages while the iterative team has already delivered their first product increments and testing their biggest assumptions.

The "Agile vs Waterfall" arguments always get more complex than this, but strictly speaking in terms of project completion, I can't say that one life cycle is always faster than another.
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2 replies by Sergio Luis Conte and Thomas Walenta
Jan 03, 2020 8:33 AM
Sergio Luis Conte
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Good to read your lines @Wade. Plase let me try to add something. If people review the definition of Agile (1990) will can find the reference model for enteprise architecture. Enteprise architecture is the foundation of Agile mainly based on systemic theory. Some well known people took it in recent years here : https://busagilitymanifesto.org. I could not agree in total with that but it deserves to be red. I am saying all that because your point about culture. Culture is just a variable inside the whole architecture, mainly belongs to business layer. What I tried to pointed out is most of the times organizations forget that they can not transform culture with a magic pill. No matter that, if you ask me, and what I did from years when I have to lead transformations to Agile, is taken into account that Culture is the key component, as you mentioned so it is impossible do not agree with you. The other thing is about faster or slower where I agree too. Each time, from 1995 up today, when I found a new job related to help the organizations to use Agile, I spend time at the begining trying to explain to people that hired me that Agile is not what the understand it is: is not deliver faster, is not lower cost, is not about to use a method or life cycle, and things like that. I always prefer that those people say me "ok, I will not moving forward with you" than being "killed" in two or three month.
Jan 03, 2020 8:34 AM
Thomas Walenta
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Wade,

I like your 'You're either agile or you aren't'.

Would argue any good project manager is agile, as they have to react on deviations of the plan and changing project environments.
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Sergio Luis Conte Helping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based Organizations Buenos Aires, Argentina
Jan 03, 2020 8:17 AM
Replying to Wade Harshman
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Sergio beat me to it. Agility has more to do with organizational culture than with project management. We're focused on PM here so we sometimes forget there's more to it than what lies in our realm. But this is the reason I can't embrace the talk of "Hybrid" agility. You're either agile or you aren't. Perhaps it would be more appropriate to say you're either becoming more agile or you aren't.

Sorry to get hung up on words.

Back to the topic, I don't think there's a mathematical reason why an iterative life cycle project would always be be faster or slower than a predictive life cycle project. Like many things, it depends on context. If you are repeating a similar project plan repeatedly, then there may be value in the predictive (i.e. "waterfall") approach. You can quickly queue up the people and resources you need and start, and you won't need to stop until you're complete.

On the other hand, if your project is new, complex, and has a great deal of unknowns, then you'll probably have an advantage with an iterative life cycle within an agile culture. This is because you can establish an empowered team to collaborate with your customers and/or users and answer important questions over the life of the project. A similar team using a predictive approach will still be in the planning stages while the iterative team has already delivered their first product increments and testing their biggest assumptions.

The "Agile vs Waterfall" arguments always get more complex than this, but strictly speaking in terms of project completion, I can't say that one life cycle is always faster than another.
Good to read your lines @Wade. Plase let me try to add something. If people review the definition of Agile (1990) will can find the reference model for enteprise architecture. Enteprise architecture is the foundation of Agile mainly based on systemic theory. Some well known people took it in recent years here : https://busagilitymanifesto.org. I could not agree in total with that but it deserves to be red. I am saying all that because your point about culture. Culture is just a variable inside the whole architecture, mainly belongs to business layer. What I tried to pointed out is most of the times organizations forget that they can not transform culture with a magic pill. No matter that, if you ask me, and what I did from years when I have to lead transformations to Agile, is taken into account that Culture is the key component, as you mentioned so it is impossible do not agree with you. The other thing is about faster or slower where I agree too. Each time, from 1995 up today, when I found a new job related to help the organizations to use Agile, I spend time at the begining trying to explain to people that hired me that Agile is not what the understand it is: is not deliver faster, is not lower cost, is not about to use a method or life cycle, and things like that. I always prefer that those people say me "ok, I will not moving forward with you" than being "killed" in two or three month.
avatar
Thomas Walenta Global Project Economy Expert Hackenheim, Germany
Jan 03, 2020 8:17 AM
Replying to Wade Harshman
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Sergio beat me to it. Agility has more to do with organizational culture than with project management. We're focused on PM here so we sometimes forget there's more to it than what lies in our realm. But this is the reason I can't embrace the talk of "Hybrid" agility. You're either agile or you aren't. Perhaps it would be more appropriate to say you're either becoming more agile or you aren't.

Sorry to get hung up on words.

Back to the topic, I don't think there's a mathematical reason why an iterative life cycle project would always be be faster or slower than a predictive life cycle project. Like many things, it depends on context. If you are repeating a similar project plan repeatedly, then there may be value in the predictive (i.e. "waterfall") approach. You can quickly queue up the people and resources you need and start, and you won't need to stop until you're complete.

On the other hand, if your project is new, complex, and has a great deal of unknowns, then you'll probably have an advantage with an iterative life cycle within an agile culture. This is because you can establish an empowered team to collaborate with your customers and/or users and answer important questions over the life of the project. A similar team using a predictive approach will still be in the planning stages while the iterative team has already delivered their first product increments and testing their biggest assumptions.

The "Agile vs Waterfall" arguments always get more complex than this, but strictly speaking in terms of project completion, I can't say that one life cycle is always faster than another.
Wade,

I like your 'You're either agile or you aren't'.

Would argue any good project manager is agile, as they have to react on deviations of the plan and changing project environments.
...
2 replies by Sergio Luis Conte and Wade Harshman
Jan 03, 2020 8:39 AM
Sergio Luis Conte
...
No @Thomas. A project manager is agile because she/he can run faster than they stakeholders when things go wrong....jejejeje, sorry for the bad joke. Just trying to add something, what you stated is Lean, is what Lean provides to organizations. Agile is one step forward. Agile is not about reacting only. Agile is about to anticipate. All this is getting thanks to agility organizations can achieved thanks to use Agile. Because of that knwoledge is the other magic ingredient in Agile.
Jan 03, 2020 12:56 PM
Wade Harshman
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I agree, I think any person or organization has to have some degree of agility, or they would not survive. That's the issue I have when we talk about "hybrid" models. I understand that we're talking about fitting predictive and iterative approaches together (square peg / round hole), but phrases like "hybrid agile" make it sound as though we'll only allow a static, pre-defined degree of adaptability.

I know this is only an issue with terms, but I like word problems, and I haven't solved this one. I think there's a better phrase we could use.
avatar
Sergio Luis Conte Helping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based Organizations Buenos Aires, Argentina
Jan 03, 2020 8:34 AM
Replying to Thomas Walenta
...
Wade,

I like your 'You're either agile or you aren't'.

Would argue any good project manager is agile, as they have to react on deviations of the plan and changing project environments.
No @Thomas. A project manager is agile because she/he can run faster than they stakeholders when things go wrong....jejejeje, sorry for the bad joke. Just trying to add something, what you stated is Lean, is what Lean provides to organizations. Agile is one step forward. Agile is not about reacting only. Agile is about to anticipate. All this is getting thanks to agility organizations can achieved thanks to use Agile. Because of that knwoledge is the other magic ingredient in Agile.
...
1 reply by Thomas Walenta
Jan 03, 2020 8:52 AM
Thomas Walenta
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Sergio, agree with your description of agile being also anticipating.

A project manager is anticipating anyhow, if they are agile (receptive to changes) or not. Anticipation is reflected in planning, estimation, risk management, forecasting and much more stuff right out of the PMBoK. It is about giving stakeholders a perception of the future and therefor hope and trust. If a PM is not doing this, they are failing.
avatar
Thomas Walenta Global Project Economy Expert Hackenheim, Germany
Jan 03, 2020 8:39 AM
Replying to Sergio Luis Conte
...
No @Thomas. A project manager is agile because she/he can run faster than they stakeholders when things go wrong....jejejeje, sorry for the bad joke. Just trying to add something, what you stated is Lean, is what Lean provides to organizations. Agile is one step forward. Agile is not about reacting only. Agile is about to anticipate. All this is getting thanks to agility organizations can achieved thanks to use Agile. Because of that knwoledge is the other magic ingredient in Agile.
Sergio, agree with your description of agile being also anticipating.

A project manager is anticipating anyhow, if they are agile (receptive to changes) or not. Anticipation is reflected in planning, estimation, risk management, forecasting and much more stuff right out of the PMBoK. It is about giving stakeholders a perception of the future and therefor hope and trust. If a PM is not doing this, they are failing.
...
1 reply by Sergio Luis Conte
Jan 03, 2020 9:09 AM
Sergio Luis Conte
...
Yes Thomas. Perhpas the definition of agility could give more context about I tried to say before: "Be able respond to a wide variety of unexpected external surprises and create external surprises. Being agile will assist businesses who face unpredictable circumstances."
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Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
Grant -

Assuming a quality-focused team with the same scope, an adaptive vs. a predictive lifecycle might complete at the same time. The differences would then relate to delivery of business value and early de-risking of the project.

Depending on the project's context, if it is possible to meet business needs by delivering less than the full scope, then a project following an adaptive lifecycle might complete sooner.

Similarly, if by shifting quality practices "left" and leaning out overhead we reduce the volume of waste such as delays, we might complete sooner.

Kiron
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Sergio Luis Conte Helping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based Organizations Buenos Aires, Argentina
Jan 03, 2020 8:52 AM
Replying to Thomas Walenta
...
Sergio, agree with your description of agile being also anticipating.

A project manager is anticipating anyhow, if they are agile (receptive to changes) or not. Anticipation is reflected in planning, estimation, risk management, forecasting and much more stuff right out of the PMBoK. It is about giving stakeholders a perception of the future and therefor hope and trust. If a PM is not doing this, they are failing.
Yes Thomas. Perhpas the definition of agility could give more context about I tried to say before: "Be able respond to a wide variety of unexpected external surprises and create external surprises. Being agile will assist businesses who face unpredictable circumstances."
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Aaron Porter
Community Champion
IT Director| Blade HQ Payson, UT, United States
Assuming that @Grant is asking to compare waterfall and Scrum, or some other iterative approach, I have some thoughts.

The question, in my opinion, is primarily about the nature of what needs to be delivered, all other things being equal (you can have a dedicated, collocated team even if you're not using Scrum). You don't start Scrum with a complete, prioritized backlog anymore than you start a waterfall project with complete requirements.

In theory, Scrum allows you to start developing sooner because you don't have to wait for a complete backlog to start developing. You CAN deliver SOMETHING sooner.

But, if you're talking about estimating, I'm not convinced that one approach is better than the other. In a waterfall approach, I find that estimates are regularly revised until just before starting the Execute phase (and sometimes after). Do you really expect estimates made during Initiation to be exact?

In Scrum, assuming you know your teams velocity, can you estimate how many sprints you'll need before all of the user stories are sized? At what point are all of your user stories sized?

Estimates are helpful but, regardless of your project approach, until your individual tasks are identified and estimated, don't be optimistic in your estimates. The project approach has less to do with how long the project is estimated to be than the attitude of the people doing the estimating.
avatar
Wade Harshman Scrum Master| GDIT Indianapolis, In, United States
Jan 03, 2020 8:34 AM
Replying to Thomas Walenta
...
Wade,

I like your 'You're either agile or you aren't'.

Would argue any good project manager is agile, as they have to react on deviations of the plan and changing project environments.
I agree, I think any person or organization has to have some degree of agility, or they would not survive. That's the issue I have when we talk about "hybrid" models. I understand that we're talking about fitting predictive and iterative approaches together (square peg / round hole), but phrases like "hybrid agile" make it sound as though we'll only allow a static, pre-defined degree of adaptability.

I know this is only an issue with terms, but I like word problems, and I haven't solved this one. I think there's a better phrase we could use.
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