George FreemanThought Leader | Author | Architect| Florida, United States
What is your belief as it relates to the “nature of projects”?
- [1] Do you believe it’s possible for a project manager to shape a project that will render predictability at every event and stage, as the PM leveraged the perfect mix of contextually correct processes, methods, tools and the like, and on top of it, executed all of it flawlessly? NOTE: I’m not speaking about adaptive methods for development.
- [2] Or do you believe that projects are unpredictable by their nature, meaning that no level of “project modeling” can avoid the unpredictable nature of the beast.
I think we all believe that a project manager needs to have agility when responding to change and that they should put all efforts into modeling the best possible project based on their expert opinion, lessons learned, personal best practices, etc. – This is not what I’m looking for in this question. I instead want to understand your principled beliefs on the nature of projects.
What say you – can projects be tamed and brought into submission or not. Saving Changes...
Deepesh RammoorthyICT Project Manager ( PMP®AgilePM®Certified ScrumMaster® (CSM®))| Australian Red Cross Blood ServiceTarneit, Vic, Australia
It's not that the projects are inherently unpredictable or cannot be shaped to execute flawlessly.
You can have the perfect script written by an Ace Hollywood writer but how Leonardo Di Caprio executes it on the screen or how Martin Scorcese directs it can make all the difference between a box office smash hit and a flop.
Along the same Analogy, it's the people who help deliver the projects, that can bring about the unpredictability
Team members can delay projects through Illness, quitting, being reassigned.
Stakeholders and Sponsors can delay projects through quitting, being reassigned, Illness , politics or hidden agendas.
Organisations may re-prioritize projects based on Strategic drivers or external factors.
In conclusion No it is not possible ! Saving Changes...
Alexandre CostaScrum Master| Integer Consulting - Pictet technologiesLoures, Portugal
George, this is a great question
In my point of view all projects present a certain degree of unpredictable, so you can build a model for the project and that it always be useful, because you have designed processes and plans that help you to manage the project.
The model could be more or less adaptable according with the nature, context and environment of the project and be prepared to face the risks that we identified.
But in the end are the known unknown risks that turn the nature of the project in unpredictable, risks that could arise at any moment and that present a challenge to the success of the project.
So the beast of unpredictable could apear even in the most stable and predictable projects, a strike that takes longer that normal, natural catastrophe, a coup, a commercial blockade etc... all this could affect the supplies, the transportations, the people needed to work, smashing all contingency plans, cost or time buffers that we estimate as reasonable in the project.
So the beast of unpredictable is always present we can never be distracted. This is my sincere opinion, but I would love to hear what other project management experts think.
Alexandre Saving Changes...
Thomas WalentaGlobal Project Economy ExpertHackenheim, Germany
The duo predictable / unpredictable can be seen as a human emotions range like certainty / uncertainty. Nothing is 100% predictable, 'the future is not ours to see' (Doris Day). But we feel safe / unsafe and everybody feels different.
The prime responsibility for a project manager is to move the feeling to safe, certain, predictable for stakeholders. That is why communication is so import. That's why a vision is important.
Planning is nothing else as trying to pre-think scenarios that may happen, so we get a more safe feeling that we can handle most things to come.
The resulting plan itself is not so important, it is a selection out of the bundle of scenarios thoiught about.
'No plan survives the first contact with the enemy' (von Moltke, 1860)
I do not like the term predictive lifecycle. Any lifecycle is predictive, even more in Scrum, you know exactly what you will be doing for the next iterations, the teams feels safe, probably safer as in traditional projects. You do not know the output, but that's similar in all projects, as they produce unique outputs per definition. Saving Changes...
Luis BrancoCEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, LdªCarcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Dear Gerorge
Very interesting this question of yours
Thanks for sharing
It depends a lot on the objectives and the time that the projects take in the execution processes
I would say that short-term projects are possible to predict all events and stages and leverage the perfect combination of processes, methods, tools and the like contextually correct, in addition to others executing everything perfectly (necessary condition: having participated in related projects and having a mature team )
Generally speaking, (no matter how "waist-tight" a Project Manager has and as much agility as there is) projects are unpredictable in nature, which means that no level of "project modeling" can avoid the unpredictable nature of the beast Saving Changes...
Sergio Luis ConteHelping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based OrganizationsBuenos Aires, Argentina
Why organizations run projects? To put in place the strategy. Why organizations define strategy? To achieve the key objectives and goals that allow them to survive, growth and develop. How they try to achive those? To get opportunities. Are they sure that they will get the opportunities? NO. There is a risk associated. There is a probability of not getting them. SO, projects allways are unpredictable. The reason because a project manager is hire is to stay in control of unpredictability.
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1 reply by Thomas Walenta
Jan 22, 2020 6:52 AM
Thomas Walenta
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Well said Sergio
Saving Changes...
Thomas WalentaGlobal Project Economy ExpertHackenheim, Germany
Jan 22, 2020 5:37 AM
Replying to Sergio Luis Conte
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Why organizations run projects? To put in place the strategy. Why organizations define strategy? To achieve the key objectives and goals that allow them to survive, growth and develop. How they try to achive those? To get opportunities. Are they sure that they will get the opportunities? NO. There is a risk associated. There is a probability of not getting them. SO, projects allways are unpredictable. The reason because a project manager is hire is to stay in control of unpredictability.
The primary difference between projects and non-project work is uncertainty and uniqueness. These characteristics prevent complete predictability. Once we achieve that, we should no longer call it a project.
Now, the unpredictability could be of varying magnitudes. Projects can range from simple to complicated to complex.
Kiron Saving Changes...
Stéphane ParentSelf Employed / Semi-retired| Leader MakerPrince Edward Island, Canada
Projects are unique endeavours because they produce a unique product, service or results.
Because the project and the deliverable have not been done before, there is a level of uncertainty. How much depends on the degree of uniqueness. Saving Changes...
Wade HarshmanScrum Master| GDITIndianapolis, In, United States
Uncertainty can never be completely eliminated, because zombies might attack at any moment. But there are some projects that land comfortably in the realm of predictability. I've known a few project managers that have one basic project which they repeat over and over again; each is slightly different, but there is a refined WBS and well-established time range. When a project completes, they apply lessons learned to their template and start again. These PMs seem amazing, by the way, because their projects always get done on schedule!
On the other extreme, there are research projects that have almost no certainties about them. I've been a part of those, and it's a very different thing to go to project sponsors and have nothing to show except some new data which may or may not help answer one of our questions.
I suspect that there is a bell curve of sorts, and most projects fall between these two extremes of uncertainty. We typically have a reasonable plan and then make adjustments when risks or opportunities come forward. Some projects have more uncertainty than others; that's the diverse nature of our profession. Saving Changes...
I don't recall the source, but I've heard it said that the only time a project schedule is 100% accurate is after the project is completed.
Uncertainty is more than implied by the fact that we have to estimate. Projects are not 100% unpredictable - they're not usually complete chaos - but I think that one situation that gets overlooked is that executives sometimes push for action over planning because they know that, no matter how much planning we do, there will still be unknowns, so it's better to get started after some planning than trying to achieve the perfect plan.
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1 reply by Sergio Luis Conte
Jan 22, 2020 11:08 AM
Sergio Luis Conte
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Software Economics, Barry Bohem, Cone of Uncertainty.
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