George FreemanThought Leader | Author | Architect| Florida, United States
What is your belief as it relates to the “nature of projects”?
- [1] Do you believe it’s possible for a project manager to shape a project that will render predictability at every event and stage, as the PM leveraged the perfect mix of contextually correct processes, methods, tools and the like, and on top of it, executed all of it flawlessly? NOTE: I’m not speaking about adaptive methods for development.
- [2] Or do you believe that projects are unpredictable by their nature, meaning that no level of “project modeling” can avoid the unpredictable nature of the beast.
I think we all believe that a project manager needs to have agility when responding to change and that they should put all efforts into modeling the best possible project based on their expert opinion, lessons learned, personal best practices, etc. – This is not what I’m looking for in this question. I instead want to understand your principled beliefs on the nature of projects.
What say you – can projects be tamed and brought into submission or not. Saving Changes...
Thomas WalentaGlobal Project Economy ExpertHackenheim, Germany
One of the differences of agile and traditional project management, that in agile the unpredictability of the product is accepted (the team does not care about the product specifics upfront and trusts the process) and the predictability of the work is increased (by set time-boxes, regular meetings, way of working). So it is a very safe environment.
Project management is about increasing predictability/security about both output and means. Dealing with many unknowns and trying permanently to mitigate them. More fuzzy. Saving Changes...
Sergio Luis ConteHelping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based OrganizationsBuenos Aires, Argentina
Jan 22, 2020 10:54 AM
Replying to Aaron Porter
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I don't recall the source, but I've heard it said that the only time a project schedule is 100% accurate is after the project is completed.
Uncertainty is more than implied by the fact that we have to estimate. Projects are not 100% unpredictable - they're not usually complete chaos - but I think that one situation that gets overlooked is that executives sometimes push for action over planning because they know that, no matter how much planning we do, there will still be unknowns, so it's better to get started after some planning than trying to achieve the perfect plan.
Software Economics, Barry Bohem, Cone of Uncertainty. Saving Changes...
George FreemanThought Leader | Author | Architect| Florida, United States
I’ve put together an interpretation of the key thoughts made so far, as I want to make sure my understanding is correct. Let me know if I didn’t catch the point, or I misconstrued your comments.
@Deepesh
- The issue is not in the “nature of projects,” it’s in the unpredictable nature of the human and organization elements that constitute the project.
@Alexandre
- It’s the always present “known unknowns” that bring degrees of unpredictability to projects.
@Thomas
- A project manager's primary responsibility is to manage stakeholder expectations, that is, creating a safe, certain and predictable environment through communication and vision. Stated differently, the plan is not as important as the need for the project manager to create an environment that can sustain and overcome the unpredictability.
@Luis
- It’s possible that a short-term project can be fully predicted if it’s perfectly structured and project resources execute flawlessly. However, generally speaking, no level of project modeling can avoid the unpredictable nature of projects.
@Sergio
- Organizations carry out projects to implement strategy and achieve key objectives and goals. They do this to survive, grow and develop as an organization. They (for the most part) understand the inherent risks and unpredictability of projects, thus the need for and their employment of a project manager.
@Kiron
- The degree to which a project is unpredictable is its measure of complexity. That said, a project without “uncertainty and uniqueness” is NOT a project.
@Stephane
- Because projects are unique endeavors, the level of uncertainty correlates to the degree of uniqueness that is present on the project.
@Wade
- <:)> Zombies avoid predictable projects, that is, projects that are constantly repeated and revised per lessons learned. They instead advance on projects where the chatter of uncertainty directs their every move. </:)>. The diverse nature of our profession likely reflects a bell curve of uncertainty; in any case, our agility in the face of change (e.g., risks) is what matters.
@Aaron
- Executives often push for action over planning because they recognize that unknowns exist regardless of the degree of planning that takes place. In general, projects are not 100% unpredictable, nor are they usually complete chaos. Saving Changes...
