Luis BrancoCEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, LdªCarcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
One of the missions of project managers is to analyze scenarios, identify risks and plan the risk response
Scenarios of evolution of the world economy:
- Optimistic: Endemic growth of the economy
- Realistic: Recession of the economy
- Pessimistic: Crisis of the economy
In a realistic scenario (recession) what are the consequences in relation to:
- The projects you manage?
- The project development approach? (Predictive, Adaptive, Incremental and / or Hybrid)
And what will happen in a crisis scenario? Saving Changes...
Sort By:
Alexandre CostaScrum Master| Integer Consulting - Pictet technologiesLoures, Portugal
Dear Luis,
I think you could add one more scenario. Stagnation of the economy, this actually happens a lot and than you have scenarios by geographical region, Asia could be growing and Europe not for example.
In a Optimistic scenario I think that a lot of projects will be created because money is being injected in the economy due to the growth. But the degree of quality and respect for minimizing resources, cost, time and deliver value to customers must be the same in all scenarios. Saying that in recessive scenarios sometimes due to lack of resources and founding we have to be creative and explore new ways to deliver a quality service, product, whatever satisfies the customer without endangering the company reputation.
In bad scenarios probably several projects will be canceled, that could affect our job and thousands of other jobs. This will affect our life quality and the economy in general, creating a snow ball effect. In other perspective you can see projects being transferred for more affordable and growth countries.
I can not find a direct correlation between this scenarios and the type of project approach, unless that's comproved that there are project approaches that we could use to reduce the cost and time of the project, nevertheless I think that depending of the project, there are project approaches that we can use to avoid the risk of not delivering value to the customer in times of uncertainty.
Even so will always depend of the type of the project. In a software project an agile approach (incremental) could be suitable to stop at any time from the moment that you reach to a minimum viable product and control the funds to reach there, but in a project construction is difficult to deliver half of a bridge.
There are many variables to take in account, that for me is hard to answer to all your questions without a true reflection.
Alexandre. Saving Changes...
Luis BrancoCEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, LdªCarcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Dear Alexandre Thank you for participating in this reflection and for your opinion
It is important to reflect on the scenarios and identify risks and, of course, plan the risk response
I don't even want to imagine crisis scenarios. After the images I saw of what happened in Ukraine. And what is happening in China and Italy (is it a police state?) Imagine that the supply chain to these isolated areas is broken, what will happen? It's not even good to think :-) Saving Changes...
I think an adaptive approach will be required at both an enterprise portfolio and at the individual project level where applicable as the volume and nature of unpredictable changes will be worse in the realistic, pessimistic or stagnation situations.
A healthy dose of pragmatic risk management will also be required - faced with such uncertain times, it does little good to focus on well known "known-unknowns" as the volume and magnitude of unknown-unknowns is likely to be more impactful.
Kiron
...
1 reply by Luis Branco
Feb 25, 2020 9:08 AM
Luis Branco
...
Dear Kiron
Thank you for participating in this reflection and for your opinion
Just ponder scenarios and identify risks
I agree that the more adaptive the approach, the more likely it is to make changes
Saving Changes...
Luis BrancoCEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, LdªCarcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Feb 25, 2020 8:13 AM
Replying to Kiron Bondale
...
Luis -
I think an adaptive approach will be required at both an enterprise portfolio and at the individual project level where applicable as the volume and nature of unpredictable changes will be worse in the realistic, pessimistic or stagnation situations.
A healthy dose of pragmatic risk management will also be required - faced with such uncertain times, it does little good to focus on well known "known-unknowns" as the volume and magnitude of unknown-unknowns is likely to be more impactful.
Kiron
Dear Kiron
Thank you for participating in this reflection and for your opinion
Just ponder scenarios and identify risks
I agree that the more adaptive the approach, the more likely it is to make changes Saving Changes...
Stéphane ParentSelf Employed / Semi-retired| Leader MakerPrince Edward Island, Canada
We need to coordinate our project risks against enterprise risks. The job of the project manager is to supplement, as necessary, with actions or reserves at the project level.
...
1 reply by Luis Branco
Feb 25, 2020 11:56 AM
Luis Branco
...
Dear Stéphane
Thank you for participating in this reflection and for your opinion
We agree that the economy is a variable in the macro environment (which can affect projects).
As such it should be analyzed in organizational terms (Environmental factors of the company)
Saving Changes...
Luis BrancoCEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, LdªCarcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Feb 25, 2020 11:39 AM
Replying to Stéphane Parent
...
We need to coordinate our project risks against enterprise risks. The job of the project manager is to supplement, as necessary, with actions or reserves at the project level.
Dear Stéphane
Thank you for participating in this reflection and for your opinion
We agree that the economy is a variable in the macro environment (which can affect projects).
As such it should be analyzed in organizational terms (Environmental factors of the company) Saving Changes...
