I am trying to find some articles on the relationship between the project life cycle and the uncertainty in the project. ie early budget estimate vs planned budget vs actual spend at the end of the project.
What are good rules of thumb for contingency +/- 50%(?) at initiation, ?% at planning etc.
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Dina Garfinkel PMPProject Manager| Horn Group IncNew York, Ny, United States
This is where I started to learn about the uncertainty throughout the project, and also bought the very interesting book "Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art".
The general rule of thumb is initial estimates can vary anywhere from 4x too low to 4x too high. Then, you'll start to narrow from there.
If you're looking for a web based project management tool that allows you to setup estimates in ranges, including this critical level of uncertainty, then I recommend checking out LiquidPlanner. LiquidPlanner is the only tool that will allow you to apply ranges to your estimates, and this can help keep your schedule (and your stakeholder's expectations) realistic.
Rakesh TrivediSenior Project Manager| IT CompanyIndore, Mp, India
There may not be lineal response for this but one thing is very clear for water fall model based project the uncertainty may be less provided there is agreement between you and customer for freezing requirement but in case its deemed to be modified then it will be other side and may vary from 20%-50% .
Now let us take case of Agile based Iterative model there since iterations are small in duration and any changes can be taken over in next iteration the estimates can be adjusted likewise so variance would be less around 10-15%.
Also, please keep in mind in order to track your project from schedule/estimate perspective take help of EVA based analysis that will provide you clear picture of future budgets.
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