Would you do a change request if specific risk didn't occur and therefore, you didn't need the related contingency reserve?
Soha KarjawallySoftware development manager / Program Manager| Phoenix - USAMontréal, Quebec, Canada
Would you do a change request if specific risk didn't occur and therefore, you didn't need the related contingency reserve? What was the threshold used?
OR will you keep it as a buffer/reserves in case another unknown unknown occurs (other than those planned)? Then in this case, how would you explain/appear in front of the change board asking for a new change request for the opposite? Not justifying padding but I guess similar cases exist...
Thomas WalentaGlobal Project Economy ExpertHackenheim, Germany
It depends on how the financial contingencies are calculated and funded.
If for example, contingencies are calculated as EMV (impact*probability), the assumption is that all risk contingencies together are statistically sufficient to cover all the risks considered. No single risk event could be covered by its own contingency alone. So, even if a risk event is not longer possible, removing its EMV from the budget is not supported by the underlying statistics.
Sometimes, funding for contingencies is outside the project budget, then indeed, the contingency commitment would be relieved (but the budget or project baseline does not change, except maybe the risk level).
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1 reply by Soha Karjawally
Jun 24, 2020 12:36 AM
Soha Karjawally
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Thanks, Thomas.
I get your point, could you clarify this part please: "removing its EMV from the budget is not supported by the underlying statistics"
Just to clarify my understanding, regarding your first part in your reply (on EMV), this should trigger a change request especially if the project management plan is already "baselined" and the opportunity wasn't identified in the risk register before. Am I correct?
Thanks
Soha
Saving Changes...
Soha KarjawallySoftware development manager / Program Manager| Phoenix - USAMontréal, Quebec, Canada
Jun 22, 2020 1:36 PM
Replying to Thomas Walenta
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It depends on how the financial contingencies are calculated and funded.
If for example, contingencies are calculated as EMV (impact*probability), the assumption is that all risk contingencies together are statistically sufficient to cover all the risks considered. No single risk event could be covered by its own contingency alone. So, even if a risk event is not longer possible, removing its EMV from the budget is not supported by the underlying statistics.
Sometimes, funding for contingencies is outside the project budget, then indeed, the contingency commitment would be relieved (but the budget or project baseline does not change, except maybe the risk level).
Thanks, Thomas.
I get your point, could you clarify this part please: "removing its EMV from the budget is not supported by the underlying statistics"
Just to clarify my understanding, regarding your first part in your reply (on EMV), this should trigger a change request especially if the project management plan is already "baselined" and the opportunity wasn't identified in the risk register before. Am I correct?
Thanks
Soha Saving Changes...
Thomas WalentaGlobal Project Economy ExpertHackenheim, Germany
Hi Soha
with using EMV as contingency risks of a project are pooled like insurance policies. No single premium pays for the insured damage, but the insurance company makes a profit since it looks at a pool of risks, some of which never occur.
What else would be the rational of setting a contingency that does not cover the damage, other than to socialize the damage?
If a risk response is activated it triggers a change request. As with all change requests, there is a limit under which the PM is empowered to decide. Just planning for a response does not include approval normally, though there are pre-approved responses (like emergency actions). Saving Changes...
I agree that decision makers generally don't like to deal with small project deviations. In the scenario you described I would create a table showing the risks that didn’t occur and the contingency funds I could return to the funding center. I’d then post the table somewhere and inform the decision makers about it, explaining that I’ll keep the funds within my project to cover unknown unknowns unless they request them back, and that I would update the table throughout the project. This gives the decision makers the option to reabsorb the funds at any time while avoiding the hassle of processing many change requests. In my experience most decision makers have no problem leaving the unused contingency funds attached to the project until its conclusion.
Among all thoughts, I agree with this, We are also using same strategy in our project. Saving Changes...