Stephen GreyAssociate Director| Broadleaf Capital International Pty LtdAustralia
Broadleaf has been looking into extreme schedule over runs and the failure of conventional analysis and modelling techniques to forecast them
This paper describes how productivity degradation propagating through a schedule can explain the behaviour and give us insights into how we might prevent serious blow outs
I would be interested in any reactions and comments readers might have
I find this study interesting as it puts some maths behind the snowball effect that what most PMs have witnessed.
"it demonstrates that a simple and plausible mechanism could make a project schedule slip far more than an initial examination of risks would suggest."
"A link between productivity and schedule slippage amplifies anything delaying the schedule and explains nonlinear behaviour in a straightforward manner"
The follow up question of course is how to measure and thus reduce "fragility" of individual tasks and project. Saving Changes...
