Project Management

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Calculate project work risk completion rate

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Anonymous
Calculate project work risk completion rate based on

Deadline
Work effort/work-effort weight
# of tasks completed

Given
Project Unit: Milestone-1 - Milestone-4, MVP-1 (includes All milestones)
Work effort for each milestone (e.g. Milestone-1 = 3 points or small work effort, Milestone-2 = 5 or medium, Milestone-3 = 8 or large)
Work-effort weight for each Milestone (in %)
% or # of Completed tasks per a Milestone

How do I include the time in the equation? Say we have a start date and projected due date or duration (e.g. x weeks or days or months), I need to calculate the risk of completing a task (milestone and the entire MVP) on time based on the current # of tasks completed.

In other words, what is the risk (small/medium/large) that a Milestone/Milestones/MVP will be completed on time (say, Mar-31, 2023) based on the number of tasks completed (15 of 40)?

Please let me know if I need to clarify

I really appreciate any help you can provide.
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Vijay Suryavanshi Project Manager - Engineering| RECARO Aircraft Seating Plantation, Fl, United States
Hi Anonymous (Igor),

Your work effort for reaching milestone 4 is not clear. Assuming it is 8 for milestone 4 as well, the project risk completion rate ends up being 50.7%.

Here is the explanation.

Milestone 1 - 3 points.
Mile stone 2 - 5 points
Milestone 3 - 8 points
Milestone 4 - 8 points.

Total work effort (with weight) = 1x3+2x5+3x8+4X8
= 3 + 10+ 24 + 32
= 69.

If 15 out 40 tasks are complete, that means only 37.5 percent of tasks or work-effort is completed.

Therefore work effort completed will be 37.5% of 69 =25.875 nearly 26.

Total work units is around 26.
That means you have completed mile stone 1 and 2.
And earned 3+10 points = 13 points.

Of the remaining milestone (work effort units) 13 are completed out of 24. (13/24 =54.1 percent work completed in between milestone 2 and 3, almost at midpoint of second and third milestone).

Finally, in terms of work units you completed - 26 work units
Total work units you have is 69.
Rate of completion of project work therefore is 26/69x100
= 37.68% of work is completed (in terms of work effort).

At this point see how many working days were used and how many remain ?
Since you have completed about 38 percent of work and have 62 percent remaining, you will know if the number of days is sufficient or u fall short of time.(Ideally u must have 62 percent of time remain, if not the number of days u fall short of completing the remaining work can be seen as risk for completion)

Hope this answers your question.
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Latha Thamma reddi Sr Product and Portfolio Management (Automation Innovation)| DXC Technology Mckinney, Tx, United States
Thanks for sharing.

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