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What can be attributed to the drop in the number of members and the low growth in the number of PMP and PMI-ACP certified people?

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Luis Branco CEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, Ldª Carcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
It was found, compared to December 2021:

- A 3.04% drop in the number of members

- A 9.25% growth in the number of PMI-ACP certifications

- A 3.37% growth in the number of PMP certifications

Is it too early to draw conclusions or could this weak growth in the number of PMP and PMI-ACP certified people be a consequence of PMI's departure from the strategic focus?
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Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
Jan 13, 2023 4:45 AM
Replying to Luis Branco
...
Dear Rami
Thanks for participating in this reflection.
Based on your argument, it occurs to me to ask:
- Why is it that the number of people who are certified in other certifications has grown by two digits?
I'd suggest that the double digit growth relates to the fact that those other credentials have had very slow growth so even a modest absolute increase in numbers will reflect as a significant percentage increase.
...
2 replies by Luis Branco and Rami Kaibni
Jan 14, 2023 3:50 AM
Luis Branco
...
Dear Kiron
In your opinion, when we compare a relative growth rate, is it difficult to draw conclusions?
Jan 16, 2023 7:37 PM
Rami Kaibni
...
That's a very reasonable rationale that Kiron gave. Its hard to tell 100% but trends change overtime.
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Luis Branco CEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, Ldª Carcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Jan 13, 2023 12:04 PM
Replying to Kiron Bondale
...
I'd suggest that the double digit growth relates to the fact that those other credentials have had very slow growth so even a modest absolute increase in numbers will reflect as a significant percentage increase.
Dear Kiron
In your opinion, when we compare a relative growth rate, is it difficult to draw conclusions?
...
1 reply by Kiron Bondale
Jan 14, 2023 7:58 AM
Kiron Bondale
...
Absolutely - that is why it is helpful to get more context in terms of total sample size, absolute and relative size of increase & decrease and so on.
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Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
Jan 14, 2023 3:50 AM
Replying to Luis Branco
...
Dear Kiron
In your opinion, when we compare a relative growth rate, is it difficult to draw conclusions?
Absolutely - that is why it is helpful to get more context in terms of total sample size, absolute and relative size of increase & decrease and so on.
...
1 reply by Luis Branco
Jan 14, 2023 11:57 AM
Luis Branco
...
Dear Kiron

Thank you for your comment

Forgetting the radical changes made, in a short period in the mission, strategy (positioning) and offer (products and prices)

Apparently even the values ​​want to change :-)
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Luis Branco CEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, Ldª Carcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Jan 14, 2023 7:58 AM
Replying to Kiron Bondale
...
Absolutely - that is why it is helpful to get more context in terms of total sample size, absolute and relative size of increase & decrease and so on.
Dear Kiron

Thank you for your comment

Forgetting the radical changes made, in a short period in the mission, strategy (positioning) and offer (products and prices)

Apparently even the values ​​want to change :-)
avatar
George Freeman Thought Leader | Author | Architect| Florida, United States
Hi Luis,

Let me ring in on this one as well.

On the membership front, many non-profit membership-based organizations are seeing a decline in membership. If I were to speculate, I would say the following two factors are in play in our profession, among others:

  1. The transition to remote work (both full and part-time) for project professionals has caused a level of disconnect with the local and extended project management community, putting memberships lower on the totem pole of needs.

  2. Project professionals were hit hard with “reduction-in-force” initiatives during the cyclical heights of the pandemic, as they were seen as “comparatively optional” resources in many sectors. With the layoffs, financial priority realignments had to be made.


As you can see below, the precipitous decline appears to have a lag-correlation to the pandemic, and from a pattern perspective, could fit my hypothesis (the percentages represent year-over-year membership growth).

  • 2018 11.27%

  • 2019 6.53%

  • 2020 9.95%

  • 2021 5.17%

  • 2022 -3.04%



I also looked at the numbers from a quarter-over-quarter perspective, and they appear to follow the cyclical patterns of the pandemic, correlative to my thoughts on this. However, a lower-level dive would be needed to confirm.

Regarding your “PMI Talent Triangle” comment: In my opinion, the changes (i.e., clarifications) made in the Triangle’s wording are perfectly on target and needed to keep the relevancy of our profession in place. The traditionalist views on “project management boundaries” are ill-equipped to globally sustain our profession today, let alone tomorrow.

Food for thought.

George
...
2 replies by Luis Branco
Jan 17, 2023 8:02 AM
Luis Branco
...
Dear George

Thank you for reading this post and, of course, for giving your opinion.

Regarding the talent triangle:
- Technical Project Management Skills versus Ways of Working
In this dimension what's new? (Is managing projects whose development approach is predictive, iterative, incremental, adaptive or hybrid technical competence?)
- Estratégica and Business Management versus Business Acumen (I definitely prefer the first one because, in my opinion, the underlying knowledge is more robust)
- Leadership versus Power Skills.
The PMI proposal in this domain of Leadership was: Brainstorming Coaching, Mentoring
Conflict Management, Emotional Intelligence, Influence, Interpersonal Skills, Understanding, Negotiation, Problem Solving, Motivation, Teamwork, Meeting Management, Communication, Decision Making, Delegation, Leadership

As I mentioned, nothing new except "sexier" and less content names
Jan 17, 2023 8:15 AM
Luis Branco
...
Dear George
For you, it makes sense to attribute "blame" to the pandemic for this drop in the number of members and the percentage decrease in PMP and PMI-ACP certifications.

For me, it makes more sense to attribute the "blame" to the poorly designed strategy, the lack of focus, the new positioning and the confusion that PMI's offer has become

One of us puts the "blame" on others... the other puts the "blame" on us

About the offer:
- I'm curious to know how many people have become PMI Project Management Ready certified

Unfortunately, they do not share this data with us.
avatar
Rami Kaibni
Community Champion
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten Associates New Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Jan 13, 2023 12:04 PM
Replying to Kiron Bondale
...
I'd suggest that the double digit growth relates to the fact that those other credentials have had very slow growth so even a modest absolute increase in numbers will reflect as a significant percentage increase.
That's a very reasonable rationale that Kiron gave. Its hard to tell 100% but trends change overtime.
...
1 reply by Luis Branco
Jan 17, 2023 8:18 AM
Luis Branco
...
Dear Rami
We agree that what people are looking for changes, that is, trends change.

It's another thing to want to be everything to everyone
avatar
Luis Branco CEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, Ldª Carcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Jan 16, 2023 5:09 PM
Replying to George Freeman
...
Hi Luis,

Let me ring in on this one as well.

On the membership front, many non-profit membership-based organizations are seeing a decline in membership. If I were to speculate, I would say the following two factors are in play in our profession, among others:

  1. The transition to remote work (both full and part-time) for project professionals has caused a level of disconnect with the local and extended project management community, putting memberships lower on the totem pole of needs.

  2. Project professionals were hit hard with “reduction-in-force” initiatives during the cyclical heights of the pandemic, as they were seen as “comparatively optional” resources in many sectors. With the layoffs, financial priority realignments had to be made.


As you can see below, the precipitous decline appears to have a lag-correlation to the pandemic, and from a pattern perspective, could fit my hypothesis (the percentages represent year-over-year membership growth).

  • 2018 11.27%

  • 2019 6.53%

  • 2020 9.95%

  • 2021 5.17%

  • 2022 -3.04%



I also looked at the numbers from a quarter-over-quarter perspective, and they appear to follow the cyclical patterns of the pandemic, correlative to my thoughts on this. However, a lower-level dive would be needed to confirm.

Regarding your “PMI Talent Triangle” comment: In my opinion, the changes (i.e., clarifications) made in the Triangle’s wording are perfectly on target and needed to keep the relevancy of our profession in place. The traditionalist views on “project management boundaries” are ill-equipped to globally sustain our profession today, let alone tomorrow.

Food for thought.

George
Dear George

Thank you for reading this post and, of course, for giving your opinion.

Regarding the talent triangle:
- Technical Project Management Skills versus Ways of Working
In this dimension what's new? (Is managing projects whose development approach is predictive, iterative, incremental, adaptive or hybrid technical competence?)
- Estratégica and Business Management versus Business Acumen (I definitely prefer the first one because, in my opinion, the underlying knowledge is more robust)
- Leadership versus Power Skills.
The PMI proposal in this domain of Leadership was: Brainstorming Coaching, Mentoring
Conflict Management, Emotional Intelligence, Influence, Interpersonal Skills, Understanding, Negotiation, Problem Solving, Motivation, Teamwork, Meeting Management, Communication, Decision Making, Delegation, Leadership

As I mentioned, nothing new except "sexier" and less content names
...
1 reply by George Freeman
Jan 17, 2023 11:29 AM
George Freeman
...
I understand your point, but I’m looking at it from a context perspective.

- “Technical Project Management” is NOT a naturally understandable phrase. Whereas “Ways of Working” describes the category appropriately. If you are mentoring, training, speaking, or writing on this subject, “ways of working” is the natural way to describe this category. In other words, the term “Technical” is not naturally understood in the context of project management.

- “Strategic and Business Management” is a phrasing that speaks to a category of skills, but it misses the greater point, which is having a level of business knowledge that allows you to make rapid and sound judgments in a given business domain – which is by definition, Business Acumen.

- The talent triangle is for all PMI certifications, and “leadership” is not a quality that necessarily correlates to all project professionals across all certifications. However, the context of “power skills” does apply across the board.

So, in my book PMI has corrected the context of the talent triangle properly and made it more understandable and inclusive to certificate holders and members in general.
avatar
Luis Branco CEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, Ldª Carcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Jan 16, 2023 5:09 PM
Replying to George Freeman
...
Hi Luis,

Let me ring in on this one as well.

On the membership front, many non-profit membership-based organizations are seeing a decline in membership. If I were to speculate, I would say the following two factors are in play in our profession, among others:

  1. The transition to remote work (both full and part-time) for project professionals has caused a level of disconnect with the local and extended project management community, putting memberships lower on the totem pole of needs.

  2. Project professionals were hit hard with “reduction-in-force” initiatives during the cyclical heights of the pandemic, as they were seen as “comparatively optional” resources in many sectors. With the layoffs, financial priority realignments had to be made.


As you can see below, the precipitous decline appears to have a lag-correlation to the pandemic, and from a pattern perspective, could fit my hypothesis (the percentages represent year-over-year membership growth).

  • 2018 11.27%

  • 2019 6.53%

  • 2020 9.95%

  • 2021 5.17%

  • 2022 -3.04%



I also looked at the numbers from a quarter-over-quarter perspective, and they appear to follow the cyclical patterns of the pandemic, correlative to my thoughts on this. However, a lower-level dive would be needed to confirm.

Regarding your “PMI Talent Triangle” comment: In my opinion, the changes (i.e., clarifications) made in the Triangle’s wording are perfectly on target and needed to keep the relevancy of our profession in place. The traditionalist views on “project management boundaries” are ill-equipped to globally sustain our profession today, let alone tomorrow.

Food for thought.

George
Dear George
For you, it makes sense to attribute "blame" to the pandemic for this drop in the number of members and the percentage decrease in PMP and PMI-ACP certifications.

For me, it makes more sense to attribute the "blame" to the poorly designed strategy, the lack of focus, the new positioning and the confusion that PMI's offer has become

One of us puts the "blame" on others... the other puts the "blame" on us

About the offer:
- I'm curious to know how many people have become PMI Project Management Ready certified

Unfortunately, they do not share this data with us.
...
1 reply by George Freeman
Jan 17, 2023 11:33 AM
George Freeman
...
Luis, what precisely is your concern as it relates to strategy?
avatar
Luis Branco CEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, Ldª Carcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Jan 16, 2023 7:37 PM
Replying to Rami Kaibni
...
That's a very reasonable rationale that Kiron gave. Its hard to tell 100% but trends change overtime.
Dear Rami
We agree that what people are looking for changes, that is, trends change.

It's another thing to want to be everything to everyone
avatar
George Freeman Thought Leader | Author | Architect| Florida, United States
Jan 17, 2023 8:02 AM
Replying to Luis Branco
...
Dear George

Thank you for reading this post and, of course, for giving your opinion.

Regarding the talent triangle:
- Technical Project Management Skills versus Ways of Working
In this dimension what's new? (Is managing projects whose development approach is predictive, iterative, incremental, adaptive or hybrid technical competence?)
- Estratégica and Business Management versus Business Acumen (I definitely prefer the first one because, in my opinion, the underlying knowledge is more robust)
- Leadership versus Power Skills.
The PMI proposal in this domain of Leadership was: Brainstorming Coaching, Mentoring
Conflict Management, Emotional Intelligence, Influence, Interpersonal Skills, Understanding, Negotiation, Problem Solving, Motivation, Teamwork, Meeting Management, Communication, Decision Making, Delegation, Leadership

As I mentioned, nothing new except "sexier" and less content names
I understand your point, but I’m looking at it from a context perspective.

- “Technical Project Management” is NOT a naturally understandable phrase. Whereas “Ways of Working” describes the category appropriately. If you are mentoring, training, speaking, or writing on this subject, “ways of working” is the natural way to describe this category. In other words, the term “Technical” is not naturally understood in the context of project management.

- “Strategic and Business Management” is a phrasing that speaks to a category of skills, but it misses the greater point, which is having a level of business knowledge that allows you to make rapid and sound judgments in a given business domain – which is by definition, Business Acumen.

- The talent triangle is for all PMI certifications, and “leadership” is not a quality that necessarily correlates to all project professionals across all certifications. However, the context of “power skills” does apply across the board.

So, in my book PMI has corrected the context of the talent triangle properly and made it more understandable and inclusive to certificate holders and members in general.
...
1 reply by Luis Branco
Jan 17, 2023 11:48 AM
Luis Branco
...
Dear George
I understand your point of view.

After carefully reading your arguments, it makes sense that for PMP certification PMI would drop the 36 month requirement and/or 4,500 hours of experience as a project manager
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