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The degree AI will take over is heavily dependent on the industry. For example, in construction, at least for now, AI can take over certain tasks like establishing trends, robots laying bricks but the human factor will always be required heavily on those projects. However, on IT projects, I feel the AI dominance might be more.
We shall wait and see how AI evolves over the next few years.
The article provided and the 80% by 2030 figure reads like a sales pitch to investors. It's an article about Gartner, written by Gartner, advertising the future tools of Garner. It's like Salesforce creating a *documentary* on streaming media (Shift) about disruptive technology which is really paid advertising for their products and consulting.
It explains that user interfaces like speech recognition and VR will replace actions traditionally using a keyboard and mouse. That's not replacing a PM, merely the tools used.
So long as human beings will be completing in scope activities on project, a (human) PM will be needed to orchestrate their efforts.
AI will free up PMs from the majority of their administrative role but their relationship and strategic roles will not be replaced until we have end-to-end automation of all roles on projects. At that point, the machines will likely choose to wipe us out as being non-essential.
AI can also play a role as an advisor for decision support purposes, but again, unless we are willing to abdicate our responsibility for making decisions, that won't change.
Just to comment, today I am using IA in my actual work place and lot of project/program/portfolio management activities I perform in the past manually (for example) has been automatized, I am not doing that right now. On the other side, I fully agree with @Keith comments above.
Only people who don't like project management would think that their project could be performed without a project manager.
Those who understand and appreciate project management know that project management is first and foremost about people: managing team performance, influencing stakeholders...
The article looks more as a promotion of AI technologies like voice recognition and Project Management software systems, to help Project Managers perform their tasks in a more precise and efficient manner.
Couldn't agree more
If we did a high level classification of skills required of a Project Manager based on tasks done- it would be Hard skills and Power skills. The Hard skills part which involves utilization of technology, tools and techniques can to a large extent be done using Artificial Intelligence.
However, the Power skills involving communication, leadership, collaboration, decision making, team work requires Emotional Intelligence as a key quality.
Further, The PMI Pulse of the Profession study indicates that the most crucial success factor in project management is effective communications to all stakeholders—a critical core competency to all organizations.
I am not sure how effective communication and power skills can be pre-programmed using AI.
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