Jean Laval Chue HimDirector| Stella Aurorae Accountants Pty LtdSydney, Nsw, Australia
Hi fellow PMs, I have been thinking of how Economics Science tries to predict and make decisions based solely on Economics theories. We are now living in the era of computing revolutions and economics science is not oblivious to these technological changes. In fact, Economics science should profit from these new computing revolutions allowing probabilistic analysis, Numerical Analysis, statistical analysis, and data analysis, game theory, operations research analysis, feedback loop mechanism simulations using computers to make economic decisions. Please let me know fellow PMs and researchers what you think of my suggestions. Cheers JL Saving Changes...
More or less, all of those are being used by researchers. However, more complex tools may not be as popular as the others.
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1 reply by Jean Laval Chue Him
Feb 13, 2023 10:40 PM
Jean Laval Chue Him
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Hi Yousefi, thanks for the feedback. I know these tools and concepts have been used and are being used in research, but I wonder if we are applying them correctly to our Economic problems for problem solving. I have studied these subjects at uni and know how powerful they can help if they are used correctly. As we project managers know so well we need a team of experts who not only can apply these tools and concepts but understand how the application of these tools and concepts influence the possible solutions provided by fast computations with powerful computers, to the economic problems/woes we are tying to solve. Something No economists or team of economists can do on their own without fast computations facilities and being able to consider huge multiples of parameters that can be of effect.
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Jean, I believe this is already happening. Don’t you think so?
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1 reply by Jean Laval Chue Him
Feb 13, 2023 10:37 PM
Jean Laval Chue Him
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Hi Rami thanks for your feedback. If they are using these tools and concepts appropriately then that is really great!!! This is what I wanted!!! I wanted to add my brick in the wall for the world and Australia. The fact of the matter is not using them like they did with AI and ended up with a catastrophe with Robodebt, but to understand the raison d'etre of these tools and concepts and to be able to apply them logically and with intelligence, not by rote or follow blindly algorithms or rules. The project teams working on these economic problems must understand HOW the computers are doing the computations rather than just applying what Chatgpt e.g. is giving them as a result. I am not saying Chatgpt is bad though, what I am saying is that the team should understand thoroughly the economic science principles and how the algorithms work in DETAILS and not just accept the results of the computations. Cheers. JL
Saving Changes...
Jean Laval Chue HimDirector| Stella Aurorae Accountants Pty LtdSydney, Nsw, Australia
Feb 13, 2023 10:34 AM
Replying to Rami Kaibni
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Jean, I believe this is already happening. Don’t you think so?
Hi Rami thanks for your feedback. If they are using these tools and concepts appropriately then that is really great!!! This is what I wanted!!! I wanted to add my brick in the wall for the world and Australia. The fact of the matter is not using them like they did with AI and ended up with a catastrophe with Robodebt, but to understand the raison d'etre of these tools and concepts and to be able to apply them logically and with intelligence, not by rote or follow blindly algorithms or rules. The project teams working on these economic problems must understand HOW the computers are doing the computations rather than just applying what Chatgpt e.g. is giving them as a result. I am not saying Chatgpt is bad though, what I am saying is that the team should understand thoroughly the economic science principles and how the algorithms work in DETAILS and not just accept the results of the computations. Cheers. JL
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1 reply by Rami Kaibni
Feb 13, 2023 10:40 PM
Rami Kaibni
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Hi Jean, I honestly don't know if they are using them or not but I did assume they are because it is not rocket science. However, as you said, the key is to use them appropriately.
Saving Changes...
Jean Laval Chue HimDirector| Stella Aurorae Accountants Pty LtdSydney, Nsw, Australia
Feb 13, 2023 8:42 AM
Replying to Abolfazl Yousefi Darestani
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More or less, all of those are being used by researchers. However, more complex tools may not be as popular as the others.
Hi Yousefi, thanks for the feedback. I know these tools and concepts have been used and are being used in research, but I wonder if we are applying them correctly to our Economic problems for problem solving. I have studied these subjects at uni and know how powerful they can help if they are used correctly. As we project managers know so well we need a team of experts who not only can apply these tools and concepts but understand how the application of these tools and concepts influence the possible solutions provided by fast computations with powerful computers, to the economic problems/woes we are tying to solve. Something No economists or team of economists can do on their own without fast computations facilities and being able to consider huge multiples of parameters that can be of effect. Saving Changes...
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Feb 13, 2023 10:37 PM
Replying to Jean Laval Chue Him
...
Hi Rami thanks for your feedback. If they are using these tools and concepts appropriately then that is really great!!! This is what I wanted!!! I wanted to add my brick in the wall for the world and Australia. The fact of the matter is not using them like they did with AI and ended up with a catastrophe with Robodebt, but to understand the raison d'etre of these tools and concepts and to be able to apply them logically and with intelligence, not by rote or follow blindly algorithms or rules. The project teams working on these economic problems must understand HOW the computers are doing the computations rather than just applying what Chatgpt e.g. is giving them as a result. I am not saying Chatgpt is bad though, what I am saying is that the team should understand thoroughly the economic science principles and how the algorithms work in DETAILS and not just accept the results of the computations. Cheers. JL
Hi Jean, I honestly don't know if they are using them or not but I did assume they are because it is not rocket science. However, as you said, the key is to use them appropriately. Saving Changes...
Patrice BlanchardExpert in transferring his expertise| Museum Box srlBraine L'Alleud, Brabant Wallon, Belgium
Is this really a new approach? These tools exist for ages. There is no revolution there. Many companies are using them already. Relying on mathematics, science and facts remains often the best solution, certainly in economic decisions.
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1 reply by Jean Laval Chue Him
Feb 14, 2023 5:43 AM
Jean Laval Chue Him
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The new approach is using the computing power of powerful computers using Artificial Intelligence from the ground up applying the mathematics mentioned to analyse options and possible results with feedback loops to correct actions moving forward, thus taking calculated risks and adapting economic policies on the go and as needed in response to unknown unknowns and known unknowns to preserve the economic stability of a country like Australia. Before with previous computing power we could do analysis up to a certain level but not beyond, now with new computing technology depth of economic analysis can be done to a very deep level and each possible decision can be analysed for future effects on the economy of Australia. One can remember the GFC, most of the developed countries applied the then popular economic theory that required cuts in spending and squeezing spending, making savings to the max, to use the money to bail out the like of Freddy may Freddy mac, while in Australia the then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd did the contrary to other developed countries. He splashed money around. As result, Australia did not suffer during the GFC, and Australia had a long economic prosperity.
Saving Changes...
Jean Laval Chue HimDirector| Stella Aurorae Accountants Pty LtdSydney, Nsw, Australia
Feb 14, 2023 4:08 AM
Replying to Patrice Blanchard
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Is this really a new approach? These tools exist for ages. There is no revolution there. Many companies are using them already. Relying on mathematics, science and facts remains often the best solution, certainly in economic decisions.
The new approach is using the computing power of powerful computers using Artificial Intelligence from the ground up applying the mathematics mentioned to analyse options and possible results with feedback loops to correct actions moving forward, thus taking calculated risks and adapting economic policies on the go and as needed in response to unknown unknowns and known unknowns to preserve the economic stability of a country like Australia. Before with previous computing power we could do analysis up to a certain level but not beyond, now with new computing technology depth of economic analysis can be done to a very deep level and each possible decision can be analysed for future effects on the economy of Australia. One can remember the GFC, most of the developed countries applied the then popular economic theory that required cuts in spending and squeezing spending, making savings to the max, to use the money to bail out the like of Freddy may Freddy mac, while in Australia the then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd did the contrary to other developed countries. He splashed money around. As result, Australia did not suffer during the GFC, and Australia had a long economic prosperity.
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1 reply by Patrice Blanchard
Feb 14, 2023 5:56 AM
Patrice Blanchard
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We this was not explicit in the original topic. Scope change?
We are taking about something very different there. After such a change, a lot of objections are obsolete.
I'll remember this technique when I will face some counter arguments.
Saving Changes...
Patrice BlanchardExpert in transferring his expertise| Museum Box srlBraine L'Alleud, Brabant Wallon, Belgium
Feb 14, 2023 5:43 AM
Replying to Jean Laval Chue Him
...
The new approach is using the computing power of powerful computers using Artificial Intelligence from the ground up applying the mathematics mentioned to analyse options and possible results with feedback loops to correct actions moving forward, thus taking calculated risks and adapting economic policies on the go and as needed in response to unknown unknowns and known unknowns to preserve the economic stability of a country like Australia. Before with previous computing power we could do analysis up to a certain level but not beyond, now with new computing technology depth of economic analysis can be done to a very deep level and each possible decision can be analysed for future effects on the economy of Australia. One can remember the GFC, most of the developed countries applied the then popular economic theory that required cuts in spending and squeezing spending, making savings to the max, to use the money to bail out the like of Freddy may Freddy mac, while in Australia the then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd did the contrary to other developed countries. He splashed money around. As result, Australia did not suffer during the GFC, and Australia had a long economic prosperity.
We this was not explicit in the original topic. Scope change?
We are taking about something very different there. After such a change, a lot of objections are obsolete.
I'll remember this technique when I will face some counter arguments.
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1 reply by Jean Laval Chue Him
Feb 14, 2023 6:56 AM
Jean Laval Chue Him
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Hi, Pat sorry but this is not a change in scope. Computer Science people surely understood I was meaning AI from the beginning the way I explained the use of mathematics mentioned. But it is good to have Saint Thomas for this forces me to detail what I mean. Thanks Pat
Saving Changes...
Jean Laval Chue HimDirector| Stella Aurorae Accountants Pty LtdSydney, Nsw, Australia
Feb 14, 2023 5:56 AM
Replying to Patrice Blanchard
...
We this was not explicit in the original topic. Scope change?
We are taking about something very different there. After such a change, a lot of objections are obsolete.
I'll remember this technique when I will face some counter arguments.
Hi, Pat sorry but this is not a change in scope. Computer Science people surely understood I was meaning AI from the beginning the way I explained the use of mathematics mentioned. But it is good to have Saint Thomas for this forces me to detail what I mean. Thanks Pat
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1 reply by Patrice Blanchard
Feb 14, 2023 7:49 AM
Patrice Blanchard
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Excel works also very well for mathematics. And it is part of computer science also. I propose that we stop there the discussion.
Saving Changes...
Patrice BlanchardExpert in transferring his expertise| Museum Box srlBraine L'Alleud, Brabant Wallon, Belgium
Feb 14, 2023 6:56 AM
Replying to Jean Laval Chue Him
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Hi, Pat sorry but this is not a change in scope. Computer Science people surely understood I was meaning AI from the beginning the way I explained the use of mathematics mentioned. But it is good to have Saint Thomas for this forces me to detail what I mean. Thanks Pat
Excel works also very well for mathematics. And it is part of computer science also. I propose that we stop there the discussion. Saving Changes...
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