Project Risks Quantitative Methods

Risk Management

Michele Margarone Italy

I know the application of Montecarlo analysis, is there any other quantitative method currently used in the industry? I am specifically interested in oil and gas industry. Thanks

Posted: Sep 17, 2023 10:26 AM

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Keith Novak Tukwila, Wa, United States

There are entire fields of study on quantitative risk analysis. One of the more comprehensive sources is the Wiley Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/9780470061596

Posted: Sep 17, 2023 12:31 PM

Rami Kaibni

Community Champion

Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten Associates New Westminster, British Columbia, Canada

Michele

There are many methods besides Monte Carlo Simulation such as sensitivity analysis, expected monetary value analysis, decision tree analysis. The industry is not relevant as those tools and techniques can be used for any industry to assess risk quantitatively.

RK

Posted: Sep 17, 2023 1:36 PM

Maria Hrabikova

Community Champion

Ricany U Prahy, Prague, Czechia

I do agree with Rami - "the industry is not relevant" to those tools and techniques (quantitative risk assessment). On top of that, as a firm believer in the Lean Six philosophy, I would add to the list the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA).

Posted: Sep 17, 2023 6:56 PM

Abolfazl Yousefi Darestani Manager, Quality and Continuous Improvement| Hörmann-TNR Industrial Doors Newmarket, Ontario, Canada

I do agree with Keith and Rami.

Posted: Sep 18, 2023 9:00 AM

Vladimir Liberzon R&D Director| Spider Project Team Moscow, Russian Federation

Look at this presentation http://www.spiderproject.com/images/img/pd...%20Analysis.pdf that describes an approach called Success Driven Project Management.
It also describes three scenarios method of quantitative risk analysis that is much easier to implement. Monte Carlo creates an illusion of accuracy but it is wrong because the quality of initial data is always poor. So using approximate estimates of probability distributions is justified.
Let me know if you will have any questions.

Posted: Sep 22, 2023 5:32 PM

Michele Margarone Italy

Thanks everyone for your valuable comments. Do you have a paper review describing the differences among the methods and when it might be useful to use on instead of another?
Thanks very much.

Posted: Sep 24, 2023 3:25 AM

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