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Can you trust Gen. AI in decision making?

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Ali Vakilzadeh Lead Project management officer| GTT Holding Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Gen AI has demonstrated unfathomable features that have already dazzled everyone's minds. But it has also shown severe fluctuations in its way of conclusions, for example giving long, convincing descriptions for its faulty suggestions. How can a project manager trust such technology for decision-making purposes? If you can somehow reduce its failure rate, will you employ it to help with your decisions?
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Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
Ali -

This is why a PM is accountable for ensuring there is validation of the inputs (e.g. data, prompts) used by a Gen AI tool and that the results are not blindly utilized. If we use the metaphor of an eager, but inexperienced assistant, it establishes the right level of diligence required. So the correct motto at this point in time is: "Don't trust and be sure to verify!"

Kiron
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1 reply by Ali Vakilzadeh
Dec 18, 2023 12:52 PM
Ali Vakilzadeh
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I agree with you. At the current state of AI progress, we can not blindly trust AI, even for simple content creation. Technically because the generator's source is the statistical data made available to it. But for decision-making, we will expect not only some level of historical learning (coming from learning datasets) but also some wisdom to predict the future. I wonder if we can rely on current AI systems to predict for us?
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Rami Kaibni
Community Champion
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten Associates New Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Ali, The final decision making should never be left to the AI. Even if you ask ChatGBT, they will advise you that the Project Manager's skills will always be needed to validate results and make the final decisions.
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1 reply by Ali Vakilzadeh
Dec 18, 2023 1:09 PM
Ali Vakilzadeh
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I would use "never" more carefully. want it or not, AI is a major decision maker in talent acquisition systems and gives you the ones who have "calibrated" their input to pass through the AI, not mandatorily the best ones. This way of decision influencing soon or late will infiltrate more processes. what will you do to make sure your processes are working at their best?
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Aziz Azzam PM| Moby Media Group, FZ LLC Doha, Qatar
That's where the PM analytical skillset would step in. The PM must know the logic behind the enormous amount of data the AI put though their face.
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Keith Novak Tukwila, Wa, United States
AI can no more be trusted than Wikipedia which can be edited by anyone. As an example, one attorney was censured for using AI to write legal briefs which include citations of non-existent court cases.

A PM should review the information carefully and determine whether or not they agree based on either their own knowledge of the subject, or through independent research. That may require significant effort, but it may still be more efficient to carefully review the AI output than to gather, analyze, and document the information themselves without AI.
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Sergio Luis Conte Helping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based Organizations Buenos Aires, Argentina
In my personal opinion the problem arises when some terms becomes buzzwords. AI is based on data provided as input and the results always have a degree of confidence or saying it in other words a chance of error associated to it. When you create an AI entity you have the possitility to calculate the degree of confidence by using statistics tools.
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1 reply by Ali Vakilzadeh
Dec 22, 2023 1:49 PM
Ali Vakilzadeh
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I agree that current AI models heavily depend on input and training data to generate outputs. however, several "decision builder" algorithms may influence an organization's behavior without anyone noticing the situation. For example, the ATS uses AI to summarize and rank applicant CVs, therefore a lot of applicants lose their chance of being seen, only because their CV wasn't "AI optimized". This means that an organization is not hiring the best candidate, but only the one selected by AI. Many other examples may exist, that negatively impact organ behavior without leaving any footprint.
In such cases, we are ignoring the low quality of output, just because we have little time to qualify the output.
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Manoj Tripathi Group PMO| Exploring Opportunity Delhi, Dl, India
I personally believe that AI can not be a decision maker for complex situations, however it should be used as a supporting tool. So far AI itself is not confident enough to answer all queries. Look at below example.

I initiated a discussion with Google bard. Focus on the last line of its answer.

Prompt : You are a Project, Program and Portfolio management expert.

Response : While I am still under development, I have access to a vast amount of information and knowledge regarding project, program, and portfolio management. This allows me to understand the concepts, frameworks, and best practices associated with each discipline. I can also analyze data and provide insights related to project performance, resource allocation, and risk management.
However, I would not consider myself an "expert" in the traditional sense. I lack the hands-on experience and real-world application of these methodologies that a human expert would possess.
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Ali Vakilzadeh Lead Project management officer| GTT Holding Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Dec 15, 2023 12:54 PM
Replying to Kiron Bondale
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Ali -

This is why a PM is accountable for ensuring there is validation of the inputs (e.g. data, prompts) used by a Gen AI tool and that the results are not blindly utilized. If we use the metaphor of an eager, but inexperienced assistant, it establishes the right level of diligence required. So the correct motto at this point in time is: "Don't trust and be sure to verify!"

Kiron
I agree with you. At the current state of AI progress, we can not blindly trust AI, even for simple content creation. Technically because the generator's source is the statistical data made available to it. But for decision-making, we will expect not only some level of historical learning (coming from learning datasets) but also some wisdom to predict the future. I wonder if we can rely on current AI systems to predict for us?
...
1 reply by Kiron Bondale
Dec 18, 2023 4:48 PM
Kiron Bondale
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Near term, that wisdom in the PM field might be suspect because of the critical importance of fully understanding context. Unless an AI tool has the awareness to ask sufficient questions to get the complete picture which the PM sees, it may not be able to provide a valid prediction.

This is the natural challenge with any endeavor where there is a high degree of uniqueness and I'd expect the same challenge for AI use in any domain where complexity is high.

Kiron
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Ali Vakilzadeh Lead Project management officer| GTT Holding Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Dec 15, 2023 4:10 PM
Replying to Rami Kaibni
...
Ali, The final decision making should never be left to the AI. Even if you ask ChatGBT, they will advise you that the Project Manager's skills will always be needed to validate results and make the final decisions.
I would use "never" more carefully. want it or not, AI is a major decision maker in talent acquisition systems and gives you the ones who have "calibrated" their input to pass through the AI, not mandatorily the best ones. This way of decision influencing soon or late will infiltrate more processes. what will you do to make sure your processes are working at their best?
avatar
Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
Dec 18, 2023 12:52 PM
Replying to Ali Vakilzadeh
...
I agree with you. At the current state of AI progress, we can not blindly trust AI, even for simple content creation. Technically because the generator's source is the statistical data made available to it. But for decision-making, we will expect not only some level of historical learning (coming from learning datasets) but also some wisdom to predict the future. I wonder if we can rely on current AI systems to predict for us?
Near term, that wisdom in the PM field might be suspect because of the critical importance of fully understanding context. Unless an AI tool has the awareness to ask sufficient questions to get the complete picture which the PM sees, it may not be able to provide a valid prediction.

This is the natural challenge with any endeavor where there is a high degree of uniqueness and I'd expect the same challenge for AI use in any domain where complexity is high.

Kiron
avatar
Ali Vakilzadeh Lead Project management officer| GTT Holding Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Dec 18, 2023 4:35 AM
Replying to Sergio Luis Conte
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In my personal opinion the problem arises when some terms becomes buzzwords. AI is based on data provided as input and the results always have a degree of confidence or saying it in other words a chance of error associated to it. When you create an AI entity you have the possitility to calculate the degree of confidence by using statistics tools.
I agree that current AI models heavily depend on input and training data to generate outputs. however, several "decision builder" algorithms may influence an organization's behavior without anyone noticing the situation. For example, the ATS uses AI to summarize and rank applicant CVs, therefore a lot of applicants lose their chance of being seen, only because their CV wasn't "AI optimized". This means that an organization is not hiring the best candidate, but only the one selected by AI. Many other examples may exist, that negatively impact organ behavior without leaving any footprint.
In such cases, we are ignoring the low quality of output, just because we have little time to qualify the output.
...
1 reply by Sergio Luis Conte
Dec 25, 2023 7:29 AM
Sergio Luis Conte
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You hit the nail: they rank the CVs and they notice about that. The decision is still on hands of human beings.. In Why? Because the AI can not understand what the word "best" and others means except you trained the AI with that and when you trained AI with that then you are including the organizational definition about the word "best". I created lot of algorithms on this matter because they are the most simple algorithm you can create and in fact people with knowledge about programing and some statistics techniques can create it just in few hours. This type of things are critical to understand and, in my humble opinion, organizations understand how the AI works when they try to use it. We need to understand that we, as human beings, are in control of AI. The problem, and please do not think I am writting this because of your comment, AI has become a buzzword like other things in the market: agile, big data, etc, etc.
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