George FreemanThought Leader | Author | Architect| Florida, United States
Although we cannot predict the future, PMs are experts in forecasting. So, let’s take this one for a spin.
It would seem logical that many next-gen PMs will take the perceived “psychologically safe” path and address their project management inquiries to generative AI repositories versus the perceived social and professional risks one takes when addressing the same question to a human expert or expert forum.
If this is a likely outcome, what long-term consequences would you forecast for our profession?
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Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
George, Interesting question. One thing AI can't do, is talk from its own experience. Maybe it can provide feedback based on others experience but not of its own and this is where the human to human value kicks in most when it comes to mentoring. Saving Changes...
If the AI tools are used to help the PM position their inquiry in a manner which will increase the recipient's receptiveness that is one thing, but otherwise as Rami has said the quality of the responses is unlikely to be as valuable as that posed to a human.
Effective PMs also require significant people skills whether that is 1 on 1 conversations, or "reading the room". I think substituting AI for mentorship will reduce human contact which in-turn reduces emotional intelligence and social skills which require practice.
It is already a trend with our increasing attachment to computer screens. University professors are noticing newer students are less able to make basic small-talk. I see it in the office with the use of IMs rather than face to face or voice calls for involved questions even when sitting one desk away.
As senior level PMs we can often have far more impact with one carefully worded and well timed suggestion in an important meeting with the right decision makers, than with a lengthy presentation of facts and data. Social awkwardness comes across as lack of confidence which equals uncertainty and risk so your council is less likely to be heard.
I think that the more we rely on AI for learning, where you generate answers without the human interaction involved and the tangent discussions involving children, hobbies, vacations, pets, sports, etc. that do slow down knowledge transfer, PMs will become less efficient at work which benefits most from the human interaction.
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1 reply by George Freeman
Dec 26, 2023 8:58 PM
George Freeman
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Thank you, Keith, that was well stated!
I was going to clarify my question with the following two-point setup:
[1] - Imagine a world where next-gen project managers receive 100% of their PM knowledge from generative AI, utterly detached from the human-expert dynamic, as they prefer non-social learning and engagement.
[2] - In this world, generative AI content is the preferred source of knowledge, as the cultural narrative has deemed it less biased and troublesome than knowledge provided by a human expert.
At least for me, this setup doesn’t appear to be “too far off the horizon.” And if/when it comes true, we will start to see an erosion of the human-expert dynamic that fuels our profession—hopefully not.
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George FreemanThought Leader | Author | Architect| Florida, United States
Dec 26, 2023 7:45 PM
Replying to Keith Novak
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Effective PMs also require significant people skills whether that is 1 on 1 conversations, or "reading the room". I think substituting AI for mentorship will reduce human contact which in-turn reduces emotional intelligence and social skills which require practice.
It is already a trend with our increasing attachment to computer screens. University professors are noticing newer students are less able to make basic small-talk. I see it in the office with the use of IMs rather than face to face or voice calls for involved questions even when sitting one desk away.
As senior level PMs we can often have far more impact with one carefully worded and well timed suggestion in an important meeting with the right decision makers, than with a lengthy presentation of facts and data. Social awkwardness comes across as lack of confidence which equals uncertainty and risk so your council is less likely to be heard.
I think that the more we rely on AI for learning, where you generate answers without the human interaction involved and the tangent discussions involving children, hobbies, vacations, pets, sports, etc. that do slow down knowledge transfer, PMs will become less efficient at work which benefits most from the human interaction.
Thank you, Keith, that was well stated!
I was going to clarify my question with the following two-point setup:
[1] - Imagine a world where next-gen project managers receive 100% of their PM knowledge from generative AI, utterly detached from the human-expert dynamic, as they prefer non-social learning and engagement.
[2] - In this world, generative AI content is the preferred source of knowledge, as the cultural narrative has deemed it less biased and troublesome than knowledge provided by a human expert.
At least for me, this setup doesn’t appear to be “too far off the horizon.” And if/when it comes true, we will start to see an erosion of the human-expert dynamic that fuels our profession—hopefully not.
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1 reply by Robert Sedlar
Dec 27, 2023 7:19 AM
Robert Sedlar
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Based on your first criteria, I would think that the next gen PM would turn out to be less effective than other PMs for a lot of projects. Specifically for the reasons that Keith pointed out. PMs need to be able to interact well with other people and if the reason that the next gen PM wants to learn from an AI is because they prefer non-social engagement, then they won't be able to lead a team as well.
PMs tend to not have actual authority over resources (that's the Resource Manager's responsibility) so we have to negotiate for that authority, both with the team members and with the Resource Managers. I can see how companies would be driven to pick the next gen PM over an experienced PM initially, I would assume the next gen would under cut the salary of the experienced PM and companies would likely think they are saving money. But, I predict that the effectiveness of those PMs would decrease on complex projects to a point that targets wouldn't be met as frequently and companies would soon learn that some projects would be better handled by the experienced PM.
That's not to say that there won't be a place at all for the next gen PM. I would think that there would be many projects that, while unique, are projects that have been done multiple times before. Those types of projects tend to be more administrative for PMs and won't require the experiences of a seasoned PM. But any project that has high risks due to unique or new challenges, ones that stretch the skills of the project team, those projects will always need someone with good interpersonal skills which, based on your criteria, the next gen PM won't have.
My over all prediction in your scenario would that the next gen PMs would take over the entry level PM positions. After that they would either begin to learn the interpersonal skills needed to advance as a PM or they will languish in a low level PM positions for their entire career.
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Luis BrancoCEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, LdªCarcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Dear George This topic that you brought to our reflection and debate is very interesting. It was covered in the film: "Trouble with the Curve" Saving Changes...
Robert SedlarProgram Manager, Investment Management and Enterprise Data| Federated HermesPittsburgh, Pa, United States
Dec 26, 2023 8:58 PM
Replying to George Freeman
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Thank you, Keith, that was well stated!
I was going to clarify my question with the following two-point setup:
[1] - Imagine a world where next-gen project managers receive 100% of their PM knowledge from generative AI, utterly detached from the human-expert dynamic, as they prefer non-social learning and engagement.
[2] - In this world, generative AI content is the preferred source of knowledge, as the cultural narrative has deemed it less biased and troublesome than knowledge provided by a human expert.
At least for me, this setup doesn’t appear to be “too far off the horizon.” And if/when it comes true, we will start to see an erosion of the human-expert dynamic that fuels our profession—hopefully not.
Based on your first criteria, I would think that the next gen PM would turn out to be less effective than other PMs for a lot of projects. Specifically for the reasons that Keith pointed out. PMs need to be able to interact well with other people and if the reason that the next gen PM wants to learn from an AI is because they prefer non-social engagement, then they won't be able to lead a team as well.
PMs tend to not have actual authority over resources (that's the Resource Manager's responsibility) so we have to negotiate for that authority, both with the team members and with the Resource Managers. I can see how companies would be driven to pick the next gen PM over an experienced PM initially, I would assume the next gen would under cut the salary of the experienced PM and companies would likely think they are saving money. But, I predict that the effectiveness of those PMs would decrease on complex projects to a point that targets wouldn't be met as frequently and companies would soon learn that some projects would be better handled by the experienced PM.
That's not to say that there won't be a place at all for the next gen PM. I would think that there would be many projects that, while unique, are projects that have been done multiple times before. Those types of projects tend to be more administrative for PMs and won't require the experiences of a seasoned PM. But any project that has high risks due to unique or new challenges, ones that stretch the skills of the project team, those projects will always need someone with good interpersonal skills which, based on your criteria, the next gen PM won't have.
My over all prediction in your scenario would that the next gen PMs would take over the entry level PM positions. After that they would either begin to learn the interpersonal skills needed to advance as a PM or they will languish in a low level PM positions for their entire career. Saving Changes...
Zohaib QadirSystem Administrator Picture Archiving and Communication System (PACS)| Peshawar Institute of CardiologyPeshawar, Kpk, Pakistan
Mentored by AI PMs may prioritize innovation, adapt faster. Experienced PMs offer wisdom, risk mitigation. Blend for optimal outcomes Saving Changes...
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