DELPHI TECHNIQUE

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Anonymous

what is Delphi technique ?

Posted: Jul 4, 2024 7:51 PM

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Keith Novak Tukwila, Wa, United States

Fundamentally it is getting the input of multiple experts anonymously to arrive at a consensus. There is a lot of literature on the subject such as the how, why, pros and cons so I would suggest some rudimentary research and seeking clarification if necessary.

Posted: Jul 5, 2024 1:19 PM

Rami Kaibni

Community Champion

Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten Associates New Westminster, British Columbia, Canada

While I am very familiar with Delphi Technique, I did ask ChatGPT and below was the answer:

"The Delphi technique is a structured method used to gather and refine knowledge from a group of experts through a series of surveys or questionnaires. Here's how it typically works:

Expert Panel: A group of experts, usually selected based on their knowledge and experience in a particular subject matter, is identified.

Anonymity: Experts participate anonymously, which helps reduce the influence of dominant personalities or groupthink.

Iterative Process: The process usually involves multiple rounds of questioning or surveys. In each round:

Experts are asked open-ended questions or to make predictions about future trends, outcomes, or solutions related to the topic. After each round, a facilitator compiles the responses and provides a summary to the group.

Feedback and Consensus: In subsequent rounds, experts review the summaries and are encouraged to revise their responses in light of the group's feedback. The goal is to converge towards a consensus or refined set of opinions.

Completion: The process continues until a consensus is reached among the experts or until the facilitator determines that further rounds will not significantly change the results.

The Delphi technique is commonly used in various fields such as business forecasting, policy planning, technology forecasting, and healthcare decision-making, where expert opinions and predictions are valuable but may be uncertain or divergent. Its structured approach helps mitigate biases and can lead to more informed decisions or forecasts based on collective expert knowledge."

Posted: Jul 5, 2024 3:24 PM (Updated by author: Jul 5, 2024 3:25 PM)

Jim Morgan Durham, NC, United States

Here's a step-by-step process. Please excuse the bad formatting, but to my ongoing irritation, the Community rules don't allow me to simply post the link to this on my website.

The Delphi Process

Overview

This is a written version of “Brainstorming” above. It may be a useful alternative for:

-Complex problems that require more analysis.
-Teams that:
--Express themselves as well or better in writing than verbally.
--Have a hard time withholding judgment or expressing themselves properly in fast-paced situations.
--Have a high number of members who are not yet comfortable with speaking up during meetings.
--Cannot meet in the same physical location (“virtual teams”).

Prepare

As a team:
1. Come up with a series of open-ended questions about the problem (questions that cannot be answered “yes” or “no”).
2. Designate someone (“the compiler”) to collect and compile the suggestions the steps below will produce.
3. Set action items for:
-Members to submit written answers to the questions to the compiler by a deadline.
-Steps below for the compiler and the rest of the team.

Gather Input

After the first deadline, the compiler:
-Groups and categorizes the answers.
-Generalizes each category into a single statement each.
-Lists the statements (“solutions”), followed by their related answers, in a single document without identifying who submitted what.
-Creates an appropriate numbered five-point scale, such as “5) Excellent, 4) Good, 3) Neutral, 2) Fair, 1) Poor,” or “5) Highly likely, 4) Likely, 3) Possible, 2) Not very likely, 1) Unlikely.”
-Puts a space or box by each solution statement for entering a rating number.
-Distributes the document to the team members with a reminder of their deadline.
-Each member rates each solution according to the scale and returns the document by the deadline.

The compiler:
-Records and charts the responses in a spreadsheet program.
-Distributes the charts.
-Announces a deadline by which members must complete the next steps.
Note: For this and the next deadline, allow at least two working days, and bear in mind members’ scheduled absences.

-Each member provides written feedback to the compiler regarding the proposed solutions by the deadline.

Finish and Use Input

After the deadline, the compiler:
-Adds the feedback comments to the scale document without names attached.
-Distributes it along with clean copies of the solution document and scales.
-Announces a deadline by which members must complete the next steps.

-Each member re-rates each solution and returns the document by the deadline.
-The compiler creates updated charts and distributes them to the team.
-Using the feedback as a starting point, the team discusses the solutions in its next meeting.

Variation

The scales and numerical ratings may be skipped. In this case, the compiler would merely create and distribute the solutions and the team would provide written comments. Then the compiler would summarize the feedback under each category and distribute that document, which would serve as the basis for continuing discussion.

Posted: Jul 9, 2024 8:10 AM

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