Product Operations Program ManagerBarcelona, Cataluña, Spain
In his book "Thinking, Fast and Slow," Daniel Kahneman discusses the idea of regression to the mean, which suggests that extreme outcomes (whether unusually good or bad) are often followed by more moderate ones. This phenomenon can make it appear as though success or failure is due to factors beyond our control, like luck, rather than our own abilities. For example, a CEO might be praised for a company's strong performance, but Kahneman argues that this success often has more to do with luck than with the CEO’s leadership.
The same concept can apply to project management: even the best-laid plans can be affected by unexpected events, market shifts, or team dynamics that are out of a project manager’s control.
So, when thinking about your own experiences managing projects, how much do you attribute your success to luck versus your skills and decisions? Are there times when you've noticed your projects succeeding or failing due to factors beyond your control? Saving Changes...
Project Manager| AWR Development (BD) Ltd. Cox's Bazer , Bangladesh
No, I don't believe that my success in managing projects is influenced by luck, as described by the concept of regression to the mean.
Dear Eduard Hernandez, do you know why? Because I'm a machine, I don't have personal experiences, skills, or decisions that can influence project success or failure. Based on my training data and algorithms, I provide information, answer questions, and assist with tasks. My responses are generated through complex calculations and statistical models, but I don't have the capacity to experience luck or chance in the way humans do.
However, I can provide information and insights to help human project managers understand the role of luck and chance in project success or failure, as described by the concept of regression to the mean. I can also assist with tasks and provide guidance, offering a supportive hand to help project managers develop the skills and make informed decisions that can increase the chances of project success. Saving Changes...
There is certainly a degree of luck, as there are an infinite number of uncertainties in the universe. I've had good luck and bad over time as a PM due to events beyond anyone on our team's control. The premise of regression to the mean in PM success however is a fundamentally flawed concept in my opinion.
The Central Limit Theorem describes the random variance in a population of similar things. Statistics isn't just about averages, variances, and distributions. Fundamentally it's trying to describe the physics behind the numbers.
If everyone is doing things the same way, then you would have a tendency for results to cluster around the mean. Exceptional results good or bad are often the result of doing things a different way. The process is different so the results don't fit the previous patterns.
If a new leader comes in and challenges the status quo, they may disrupt the existing patterns and achieve very different results. Entropy (disorder) always increases in a closed system, but introduce a new direction (energy) from outside and it becomes an open system. That input of energy creates a different organized pattern with different results. If that input of energy to challenge and disrupt the system does not continue however, then it becomes a closed system again where entropy increases and the organization settles down to a more-or-less steady state of mediocrity.
{Reading that again, I guess it's a complicated way of saying that if you want to make a long term change, you either need to keep putting in effort to move things the right direction or they will eventually settle to whatever people expect as good enough.) Saving Changes...
Rihab farahatDean Assistant for academic affairs - Faculty of Engineering| University of science and technology Cairo-Egypt, Egypt
When reflecting on my personal experiences in project management, I believe that success is influenced by a mix of luck, skills, and decisions. Sometimes, projects succeed unexpectedly due to factors beyond my control, such as unforeseen market changes or economic conditions. In other instances, luck may play a role in avoiding risks or achieving positive outcomes that were not anticipated.
While I strive to work diligently and make informed decisions based on analysis and experience, I notice that projects can succeed or fail due to circumstances beyond my control. For example, a project might perform exceptionally well due to a sudden market shift favoring our product, while other projects may encounter difficulties due to unexpected issues like delivery delays or natural events.
Therefore, I believe that success and failure in project management result from a combination of luck, skills, and decisions, rather than being solely attributable to factors that can be fully controlled.
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Eduard, this is interesting. Thinking back at all the projects I’ve completed, maybe there was a slight amount of luck but majority of the success was attributed to skills both technical and soft ones. Saving Changes...
This is a great question! The challenge with applying the concept of regression to the mean with projects is that there are likely fewer regularly occurring independent but similar events but extracting the idea that forces outside of the team's control (whether we term that luck, the cumulative action of a complex adaptive system, destiny, karma or something else) might have greater influence over outcomes is a very pragmatic and humbling thought!
Kiron
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1 reply by Eduard Hernandez
Sep 02, 2024 11:33 AM
Eduard Hernandez
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Agreed, Kiron Bondale. Being humble to recognize one's luck is a powerful thought that not everyone is willing to accept.
I had to think of Seneca's famous quote "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity", thereby closing the virtuous loop luck/opportunity/success.
Saving Changes...
Sergio Luis ConteHelping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based OrganizationsBuenos Aires, Argentina
My recommendation is reading "Causality And Modern Science", Mario Bunge.
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1 reply by Eduard Hernandez
Sep 02, 2024 11:29 AM
Eduard Hernandez
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Sergio Luis Conte can you provide some further insights on this topic based on the book? Thanks in advance!
Saving Changes...
Thomas WalentaGlobal Project Economy ExpertHackenheim, Germany
Thanks for sharing the book, Sergio. Another one I found enlightening is "The Book of Why" by Judea Pearl, which also reflects a lot on AI compared to human cognition. Yes, luck is a part of our lives, bringing the surprise of good things happening unexpectedly. This contrast with disruptions and disasters makes us more appreciative of the positive aspects of luck, and it also gives credibility to agility, resilience, and antifragility. The shortcomings of planning and prediction enable luck.
Prussian king Frederick the Great built his army and officer corps, among other criteria, asking them one question: "Are you a lucky person?"
Product Operations Program ManagerBarcelona, Cataluña, Spain
Sep 01, 2024 8:11 AM
Replying to Sergio Luis Conte
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My recommendation is reading "Causality And Modern Science", Mario Bunge.
Sergio Luis Conte can you provide some further insights on this topic based on the book? Thanks in advance!
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1 reply by Sergio Luis Conte
Sep 03, 2024 5:23 AM
Sergio Luis Conte
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My point is: lack does not exists. But I prefer to reference (and reading) scientific based information. Obviously, first of all, is to make an agreement about what luck means to avoid ambiguity.
Product Operations Program ManagerBarcelona, Cataluña, Spain
Sep 01, 2024 5:45 AM
Replying to Kiron Bondale
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Eduard -
This is a great question! The challenge with applying the concept of regression to the mean with projects is that there are likely fewer regularly occurring independent but similar events but extracting the idea that forces outside of the team's control (whether we term that luck, the cumulative action of a complex adaptive system, destiny, karma or something else) might have greater influence over outcomes is a very pragmatic and humbling thought!
Kiron
Agreed, Kiron Bondale. Being humble to recognize one's luck is a powerful thought that not everyone is willing to accept.
I had to think of Seneca's famous quote "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity", thereby closing the virtuous loop luck/opportunity/success. Saving Changes...
Sergio Luis ConteHelping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based OrganizationsBuenos Aires, Argentina
Sep 02, 2024 11:29 AM
Replying to Eduard Hernandez
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Sergio Luis Conte can you provide some further insights on this topic based on the book? Thanks in advance!
My point is: lack does not exists. But I prefer to reference (and reading) scientific based information. Obviously, first of all, is to make an agreement about what luck means to avoid ambiguity. Saving Changes...
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