How Can Project Managers (Both Technical and Non-Technical) Validate Developer Estimates and Lead Projects Effectively?
Mujtaba TariqPMO / IT Project Manager| ABACUSLahore, PB, Pakistan
As project managers, one of our key challenges is obtaining accurate estimates for development tasks, especially when we're not developers ourselves. Whether we're technical project managers or not, it's difficult to assess whether the duration provided by developers is realistic. We often hear that project managers are at a disadvantage because they aren't developers, making us seem overly dependent on the development team.
I'd love to hear how others in this community have tackled this challenge:
How do you validate the estimates given by developers?
What strategies do you use to ensure task durations are accurate and timelines are realistic?
How do you lead your project teams effectively, even when you may lack technical expertise?
How do you manage expectations with stakeholders when dealing with uncertain or vague estimates?
Please share your experiences and any tools or methods that have worked for you in ensuring successful project outcomes. Your insights would be invaluable.
A few ways to get better estimates are:
- Get a second opinion
- Get more than one estimate for a particularly complex activity - e.g. top-down AND bottom-up
- Get ranged or three point estimates rather than a single number
- Make sure you ask for the underlying assumptions
The way your question is written, it seems to imply that either there is a relationship between accurate estimates and leading projects effectively, or it is a two part question. I don't know what you intended, but I would want to know what "leading projects effectively" means to you before answering that part of the question.
Regarding developer estimates, in my experience, you have to start by understanding what the developer is talking about. The number you've been given is likely a ballpark for how much time they plan to spend on the task; it could be either effort or duration, but they don't typically think in project management terms. You should also keep in mind that there are different types of estimates based on where you are in the project (look up Cone of Uncertainty):
- Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM)
- Preliminary
- Budget
- Definitive
Within these time/phase-related estimates, you can use a combination of the following approaches to improve the estimates:
It's important to keep in mind that leading projects effectively does not mean starting with accurate estimates. Many developers have dealt with supposed authority figures treating the ballpark figure they provided without a lot of knowledge about what they need to do, or time to figure it out, as if it were a Definitive estimate, so they're going to do their best to give you a number that gives them plenty of time to work on it. Then, some of them, feeling that they have plenty of time to work on the task, will put off working on it, because this seems to be human nature, except that they didn't plan for defects that take longer than expected to fix (you don't know what you don't know). As PM, you need to plan for this.
Leading projects effectively involves a broad set of skills, including responding effectively to change and managing stakeholder expectations. By definition, ROM estimates are expected to be wrong. The Cone of Uncertainty paints the picture that the more you learn about the project, which takes time and effort, the more accurate your estimates will be. TBH, the only time I would guarantee that a project schedule is 100% accurate is when I've finished updating it with Actuals, AFTER the project is over. I hope we can agree that a 100% accurate schedule is not the definition of leading projects effectively.
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1 reply by Mujtaba Tariq
Sep 11, 2024 10:26 AM
Mujtaba Tariq
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Thank you for your response. I have one question related to making accurate estimates and successfully completing a project within the deadline. Your insights are valuable and helpful, particularly the point that as a PM, 'you need to plan for this.' I also agree with your observation that leading projects effectively requires a broad skill set, and that a project schedule is only 100% accurate when it's been updated with actuals, after the project is complete.
Once again, thank you for your time and valuable response.
Saving Changes...
Mujtaba TariqPMO / IT Project Manager| ABACUSLahore, PB, Pakistan
Sep 11, 2024 9:53 AM
Replying to Aaron Porter
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The way your question is written, it seems to imply that either there is a relationship between accurate estimates and leading projects effectively, or it is a two part question. I don't know what you intended, but I would want to know what "leading projects effectively" means to you before answering that part of the question.
Regarding developer estimates, in my experience, you have to start by understanding what the developer is talking about. The number you've been given is likely a ballpark for how much time they plan to spend on the task; it could be either effort or duration, but they don't typically think in project management terms. You should also keep in mind that there are different types of estimates based on where you are in the project (look up Cone of Uncertainty):
- Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM)
- Preliminary
- Budget
- Definitive
Within these time/phase-related estimates, you can use a combination of the following approaches to improve the estimates:
It's important to keep in mind that leading projects effectively does not mean starting with accurate estimates. Many developers have dealt with supposed authority figures treating the ballpark figure they provided without a lot of knowledge about what they need to do, or time to figure it out, as if it were a Definitive estimate, so they're going to do their best to give you a number that gives them plenty of time to work on it. Then, some of them, feeling that they have plenty of time to work on the task, will put off working on it, because this seems to be human nature, except that they didn't plan for defects that take longer than expected to fix (you don't know what you don't know). As PM, you need to plan for this.
Leading projects effectively involves a broad set of skills, including responding effectively to change and managing stakeholder expectations. By definition, ROM estimates are expected to be wrong. The Cone of Uncertainty paints the picture that the more you learn about the project, which takes time and effort, the more accurate your estimates will be. TBH, the only time I would guarantee that a project schedule is 100% accurate is when I've finished updating it with Actuals, AFTER the project is over. I hope we can agree that a 100% accurate schedule is not the definition of leading projects effectively.
Thank you for your response. I have one question related to making accurate estimates and successfully completing a project within the deadline. Your insights are valuable and helpful, particularly the point that as a PM, 'you need to plan for this.' I also agree with your observation that leading projects effectively requires a broad skill set, and that a project schedule is only 100% accurate when it's been updated with actuals, after the project is complete.
Once again, thank you for your time and valuable response.
Saving Changes...
Mujtaba TariqPMO / IT Project Manager| ABACUSLahore, PB, Pakistan
Sep 11, 2024 7:29 AM
Replying to Kiron Bondale
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Mujtaba -
A few ways to get better estimates are:
- Get a second opinion
- Get more than one estimate for a particularly complex activity - e.g. top-down AND bottom-up
- Get ranged or three point estimates rather than a single number
- Make sure you ask for the underlying assumptions
Kiron
thank you for response and time Saving Changes...
Sergio Luis ConteHelping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based OrganizationsBuenos Aires, Argentina
The key point is to understand what an estimation is. Estimation always have an inherent error because the information available at the moment of doing the estimation. Take a closer look to Barry Boehm "Cone of Uncertainty". With that said, the important thing is to pay attention to the flow not to some punctual estimation. Times like time to market, lead time, cycle time is what will add value to create solutions Saving Changes...
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