Monte Carlos Simulation

Risk Management

David Rich Principal - Risk Management| Qualus Corp Dallas, Tx, United States

At what cost level do most project teams add monte carlo simulation to the risk analysis?

Posted: Feb 28, 2025 2:22 PM

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Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada

David -

It is less a question of cost and more one of organizational PM and RM maturity. For example @Risk provides MC simulation capabilities for a fairly modest cost, but the ability to use those effectively does require a higher level of maturity.

Kiron

Posted: Feb 28, 2025 5:04 PM

Md. Golam Rob Talukdar

Community Champion

Project Manager| AWR Development (BD) Ltd. Cox's Bazer , Bangladesh

When project costs reach around $1 million, teams often turn to Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis.

This helps manage complexities and uncertainties effectively!

Golam

Posted: Feb 28, 2025 10:30 PM

Keith Novak Tukwila, Wa, United States

I would consider including it at the point where the PM team has about 1 full time person dedicated 50% or more to analytics.

MC sims can be done in Excel so cost isn't the software. The real cost is the very smart employee who is knowledgeable about both the project and the analytics, otherwise GIGO.

I would assume the project is big enough that my core team was at least 4-5 senior level people.

Posted: Mar 1, 2025 12:28 AM

Pavan Maddi

Community Champion

Buona Vista, Singapore

Monte Carlo simulation is typically used for high-cost, high-risk projects where uncertainty has a significant impact on outcomes. Teams often apply it when project budgets exceed millions, especially in industries like construction, finance, and IT, to improve risk assessment.

Posted: Mar 1, 2025 2:25 AM

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