Putting aside the issue of whether the proposed defense system is appropriate to the specific threat vectors of future wars, when I see a preliminary cost estimate like $175 Billion, I have to question how it was derived.
What do you think was the method used to derive this figure? Saving Changes...
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Amanda HarrisLeonardo DRSSpace Coast, FL, United States
At the risk of being facetious, perhaps he used an abacus 🧮😅. Saving Changes...
Luis BrancoCEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, LdªCarcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Dear Kiron Bondale Excellent question.
Whenever we see estimates in the range of $175 Billion — especially in defense contexts with high levels of technical, political, and strategic uncertainty — the first question should be: what methodology was used?
Was it:
- An analogous estimate based on comparable systems (e.g., Iron Dome, THAAD, Aegis)?
- A parametric model, perhaps using metrics like cost per interceptor, coverage area, or projected launch rate?
- Or, more likely, a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) figure — often used to justify political intent long before a real feasibility or cost-benefit analysis?
The concern is this: when estimates of this scale are made public with no visible assumptions or method, they risk becoming political tools rather than credible inputs for decision-making.
Regardless of ideology, we should demand rigor, traceability, and accountability — especially when public funds and national security are at stake.
Such large estimates often blend rough top-down modeling, historical analogies, and high-contingency buffers. But without transparency on scope, assumptions, or phases, it’s hard to validate. Feels more political than project-driven at this stage.
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Kiron, they likely used companies like Palantir or other advanced defense analytics firms to apply predictive analytics and cost modeling techniques. These tools aggregate historical project data, risk assessments, and scenario simulations to generate preliminary budget estimates, even for complex and evolving defense systems. Saving Changes...
Program Manager, PPM&PMO Specialist.| Coppel, Mexico.Culiacán, Sinaloa, Mexico
I think they might have used a combined method for that estimate: analogous, parametric, and maybe even unit costing.
FOr example, asking Israel how much did it cost its to build something like that? Then scale it to the size of USA and with today's costs.
Regards! Francisco
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Maria SantelizIngenierio Civil| CyD ingenieriaSantiago, Región Metropolitana, Chile
Honestly? Probably the classic method:
“Take a huge round number, double it for contingency, and sprinkle in a bit of wishful thinking.”
Jokes aside, without transparency on assumptions, scope, or risk factors, numbers like $175B feel more like political signals than grounded estimates. Saving Changes...
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