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Are your metrics creating confidence… or hiding problems?

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avatar
Imran Afzal Cary, NC, United States

You’ve probably been in a meeting like this:

The numbers look good.

No one pushes back.

Everyone nods.

And the conversation moves on.

𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱.

No priority moved out.

No tradeoff was made.

No assumption was challenged.

Two weeks later, the same tension shows up again — now as a delivery problem.

This is the part most organizations miss:

𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀.

𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴.

Over time, things quietly become “true”:

Scope is assumed to be stable.

Output is treated as progress.

Only visible risk is considered real.

Not because the data proved it.

Because the data made it feel safe to believe it.

One question worth asking:

𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲…

but hiding what should still be questioned?

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avatar
Bruce Buryo
Community Champion
Very true. I’ve seen cases where metrics show “green” status while risks are quietly growing underneath.

Sometimes we measure what is easy to track (tasks closed, % progress, timelines) instead of what really matters (dependencies, decision delays, workload pressure, quality risks). The result is a false sense of control.

From my experience, good metrics should start conversations, not end them. If a report doesn’t trigger questions like what is at risk, what is blocked, what assumptions changed, then it may be giving comfort instead of insight.

The best dashboards I’ve seen always include risk trends and blockers, not just progress numbers.
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1 reply by Imran Afzal
Mar 23, 2026 1:55 AM
Imran Afzal
...
This is a great callout — especially the idea that metrics can create a false sense of control.

I’ve seen the same pattern where everything looks “green,” but the underlying risks, dependencies, or decision delays are quietly compounding.

The point about metrics starting conversations is key.

I’d add that the real challenge is what those conversations connect to.

In many cases, teams are having the right discussions — blockers, risks, trade-offs — but they stay local. They don’t translate into portfolio-level visibility or decision-making.

So you end up with:
• accurate metrics
• healthy conversations
• but still misalignment at the system level

That’s where I think the PMO has a unique role — not just improving the metrics, but connecting signals and conversations into a coherent view of consequence.
avatar
Imran Afzal Cary, NC, United States
Mar 23, 2026 1:09 AM
Replying to Bruce Buryo
...
Very true. I’ve seen cases where metrics show “green” status while risks are quietly growing underneath.

Sometimes we measure what is easy to track (tasks closed, % progress, timelines) instead of what really matters (dependencies, decision delays, workload pressure, quality risks). The result is a false sense of control.

From my experience, good metrics should start conversations, not end them. If a report doesn’t trigger questions like what is at risk, what is blocked, what assumptions changed, then it may be giving comfort instead of insight.

The best dashboards I’ve seen always include risk trends and blockers, not just progress numbers.
This is a great callout — especially the idea that metrics can create a false sense of control.

I’ve seen the same pattern where everything looks “green,” but the underlying risks, dependencies, or decision delays are quietly compounding.

The point about metrics starting conversations is key.

I’d add that the real challenge is what those conversations connect to.

In many cases, teams are having the right discussions — blockers, risks, trade-offs — but they stay local. They don’t translate into portfolio-level visibility or decision-making.

So you end up with:
• accurate metrics
• healthy conversations
• but still misalignment at the system level

That’s where I think the PMO has a unique role — not just improving the metrics, but connecting signals and conversations into a coherent view of consequence.
avatar
Lissette Indhira Pimentel Sosa
Community Champion
Program Manager| HARPER SRL Santo Domingo / Distrito Nacional, Dominican Republic
I’ve seen this happen when metrics focus too much on status instead of assumptions. Everything looks green, but no one is asking what had to be true for that status to hold.

For me, the shift was adding a simple question in reviews: what are we assuming that could break this? That usually surfaces the real tension behind the numbers and keeps the conversation grounded in reality, not just comfort.
...
1 reply by Imran Afzal
Mar 23, 2026 8:41 PM
Imran Afzal
...
That’s a great way to operationalize it.

The “what are we assuming that could break this?” question is powerful because it forces the conversation out of status and back into uncertainty.

I’ve seen the same thing — once that question gets introduced, the discussion shifts pretty quickly from:

• “Are we on track?”
to
• “What has to be true for this to stay on track?”

And that’s usually where the real risks and trade-offs start to surface.

I also think this is where a lot of organizations get stuck — the question gets asked, but it doesn’t always connect back to decisions.

Which is where metrics stop being informative… and start becoming actionable.
avatar
Imran Afzal Cary, NC, United States
Let me make this more real.

Have you ever seen a project reported as “on track”…

…but everyone quietly knows it’s not?

No one says it directly.

Because the metric says otherwise.

That’s the kind of gap I’m talking about.
avatar
Imran Afzal Cary, NC, United States
Mar 23, 2026 7:53 PM
Replying to Lissette Indhira Pimentel Sosa
...
I’ve seen this happen when metrics focus too much on status instead of assumptions. Everything looks green, but no one is asking what had to be true for that status to hold.

For me, the shift was adding a simple question in reviews: what are we assuming that could break this? That usually surfaces the real tension behind the numbers and keeps the conversation grounded in reality, not just comfort.
That’s a great way to operationalize it.

The “what are we assuming that could break this?” question is powerful because it forces the conversation out of status and back into uncertainty.

I’ve seen the same thing — once that question gets introduced, the discussion shifts pretty quickly from:

• “Are we on track?”
to
• “What has to be true for this to stay on track?”

And that’s usually where the real risks and trade-offs start to surface.

I also think this is where a lot of organizations get stuck — the question gets asked, but it doesn’t always connect back to decisions.

Which is where metrics stop being informative… and start becoming actionable.
avatar
Keith Novak Tukwila, Wa, United States
This is a culture issue I've seen in many large bureaucratic organizations. A few common symptoms:
  • Project progress reviews include lengthy discussion about ongoing issues, but the dashboard is all green.
  • EVM CPI and/or SPI come out to exactly 1.00000 showing someone just figured out what the numbers should look like if everything was perfect.
  • Every time a task comes due, it slides 2 weeks
  • Everything looks great and then major milestones shift weeks if not months.
  • Senior level managers complain that a chart has too much red on it, signalling they want it characterized in a more positive light.

It's pretty easy to hide behind authoritative looking charts and make things look fine when they're not. Many people will just stare at the screen and nod along in quiet agreement, not challenging the reporting. There's an old saying, "Statistics don't lie, but anyone can lie using statistics."

The behavior becomes pervasive when management is rewarded for showing on-track performance, despite the issues lurking in the background. It can even get people promoted from a position where they are actually under-performing by making things appear healthy when they're not. People who report the honest truth can even be vilified for telling the honest truth and pointing out the problems.

Another way that management encourages this behavior is simply adding more pressure when things are off-track rather than providing help. We sometimes call this the "boomerang action". After reporting an issue, the PM is told to fix it faster and report out more frequently adding more work and worsening the situation. What people do as an alternative is try to hid problems hoping they can fix them without anyone knowing the problem existed, hoping it will not become too big to hide any longer.
...
1 reply by Imran Afzal
Mar 23, 2026 11:55 PM
Imran Afzal
...
Keith:

This is a great breakdown — especially the connection to incentives and behavior.

What you’re describing shows up a lot in practice: the metrics themselves aren’t neutral. They shape how people respond to pressure.

Once performance is tied to “looking on track,” the system adapts:

• issues get deferred or reframed
• metrics get optimized instead of outcomes
• and over time, the signal gets weaker while the confidence gets stronger

The CPI/SPI example is a perfect illustration — not because the metric is wrong, but because it becomes something to manage rather than something to learn from.

I also think your point about pressure is CRITICAL.

When reporting an issue leads to more scrutiny but not more support, people naturally shift toward protecting the signal instead of exposing the problem.

That’s usually when metrics stop being diagnostic and start becoming performative.

At that point, the dashboard isn’t describing reality anymore — it’s shaping it.
avatar
Imran Afzal Cary, NC, United States
Mar 23, 2026 11:42 PM
Replying to Keith Novak
...
This is a culture issue I've seen in many large bureaucratic organizations. A few common symptoms:
  • Project progress reviews include lengthy discussion about ongoing issues, but the dashboard is all green.
  • EVM CPI and/or SPI come out to exactly 1.00000 showing someone just figured out what the numbers should look like if everything was perfect.
  • Every time a task comes due, it slides 2 weeks
  • Everything looks great and then major milestones shift weeks if not months.
  • Senior level managers complain that a chart has too much red on it, signalling they want it characterized in a more positive light.

It's pretty easy to hide behind authoritative looking charts and make things look fine when they're not. Many people will just stare at the screen and nod along in quiet agreement, not challenging the reporting. There's an old saying, "Statistics don't lie, but anyone can lie using statistics."

The behavior becomes pervasive when management is rewarded for showing on-track performance, despite the issues lurking in the background. It can even get people promoted from a position where they are actually under-performing by making things appear healthy when they're not. People who report the honest truth can even be vilified for telling the honest truth and pointing out the problems.

Another way that management encourages this behavior is simply adding more pressure when things are off-track rather than providing help. We sometimes call this the "boomerang action". After reporting an issue, the PM is told to fix it faster and report out more frequently adding more work and worsening the situation. What people do as an alternative is try to hid problems hoping they can fix them without anyone knowing the problem existed, hoping it will not become too big to hide any longer.
Keith:

This is a great breakdown — especially the connection to incentives and behavior.

What you’re describing shows up a lot in practice: the metrics themselves aren’t neutral. They shape how people respond to pressure.

Once performance is tied to “looking on track,” the system adapts:

• issues get deferred or reframed
• metrics get optimized instead of outcomes
• and over time, the signal gets weaker while the confidence gets stronger

The CPI/SPI example is a perfect illustration — not because the metric is wrong, but because it becomes something to manage rather than something to learn from.

I also think your point about pressure is CRITICAL.

When reporting an issue leads to more scrutiny but not more support, people naturally shift toward protecting the signal instead of exposing the problem.

That’s usually when metrics stop being diagnostic and start becoming performative.

At that point, the dashboard isn’t describing reality anymore — it’s shaping it.

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